Uncharted water conflicts ahead: mapping the scenario space for Germany in the year 2050 DOI Creative Commons
Hannah Kosow, S. Brauner, Anja Brumme

et al.

Frontiers in Water, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Nov. 20, 2024

Introduction In recent years, conflicts surrounding the use, distribution, and governance of surface water groundwater in Germany have gained prominence media, on political agenda, research. Increasing effects climate change, such as heatwaves drought but also extreme rain events flooding, are considered to become more prominent pressing future by different societal actors. However, it remains highly uncertain if what type related quantity might actually face (and how they will be framed). This paper addresses one dimension this uncertainty—namely context uncertainty possible resource conflicts. Our research contributes an improved understanding concerning climatic, natural, land use related, political, economic, other contexts that could impact Method We ask: What coherent scenarios for year 2050, expected influence conflicts? expert-based process, we apply a qualitative systematic method systems analysis, cross-impact balances (CIB). With CIB, build internally consistent futures map scenario space. Results discussion Diversity mapping with new CIB web application ScenarioWizard reveals space is rather large diverse. The identified n = 355 spans four most diverse “Polycrisis,” “Economy agriculture crisis,” “Growth through adaptation change,” “Sustainable transformation.” Depending development contexts, risk may unfold various ways. conclude our analysis provides useful base practice address Germany. results can used assessment, define framework assumptions societal-hydrological modeling, develop robust adaptive strategies policies.

Language: Английский

Uncharted water conflicts ahead: mapping the scenario space for Germany in the year 2050 DOI Creative Commons
Hannah Kosow, S. Brauner, Anja Brumme

et al.

Frontiers in Water, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Nov. 20, 2024

Introduction In recent years, conflicts surrounding the use, distribution, and governance of surface water groundwater in Germany have gained prominence media, on political agenda, research. Increasing effects climate change, such as heatwaves drought but also extreme rain events flooding, are considered to become more prominent pressing future by different societal actors. However, it remains highly uncertain if what type related quantity might actually face (and how they will be framed). This paper addresses one dimension this uncertainty—namely context uncertainty possible resource conflicts. Our research contributes an improved understanding concerning climatic, natural, land use related, political, economic, other contexts that could impact Method We ask: What coherent scenarios for year 2050, expected influence conflicts? expert-based process, we apply a qualitative systematic method systems analysis, cross-impact balances (CIB). With CIB, build internally consistent futures map scenario space. Results discussion Diversity mapping with new CIB web application ScenarioWizard reveals space is rather large diverse. The identified n = 355 spans four most diverse “Polycrisis,” “Economy agriculture crisis,” “Growth through adaptation change,” “Sustainable transformation.” Depending development contexts, risk may unfold various ways. conclude our analysis provides useful base practice address Germany. results can used assessment, define framework assumptions societal-hydrological modeling, develop robust adaptive strategies policies.

Language: Английский

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