Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1), P. 457 - 593

Published: March 15, 2022

Abstract. Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge effects global warming past future changes climate Sea region is summarised assessed. The study an update Second Climate Change (BACC II) published 2015 focuses atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, terrestrial marine biosphere. summaries gained palaeo-, historical, regional research, we find that main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Inflows, phytoplankton species distribution, scenario simulations with improved models, glaciers, lake ice, food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included ensembles, especially Sea. With help coupled feedbacks between several components system been studied, multiple driver studies performed, e.g. projections web include fisheries, eutrophication, change. New datasets led to a revised understanding some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has evident natural variability, particular ocean multidecadal timescales, greater previously estimated, challenging our ability detect observed projected climate. context, first palaeoclimate regionalised are instructive. Hence, increased. addition well-known influence North Atlantic Oscillation, was found also other low-frequency modes internal Multidecadal Variability, profound region. Challenges identified, systematic discrepancy cloudiness trends difficulty confidently attributing large ecosystems Finally, compare results coastal sea assessments, Region (NOSCCA), change differ those Sea, since oceanography very different seas While dynamics dominated by tides, characterised brackish water, perennial vertical stratification southern subbasins, seasonal ice cover northern subbasins.

Language: Английский

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Warming of lowland Polish lakes under future climate change scenarios and consequences for ice cover and mixing dynamics

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 34, P. 100780 - 100780

Published: Feb. 16, 2021

Study region:The study region comprises 25 lowland Polish lakes in the northern part of country.The studied provide domestic, industrial and agricultural water supply, are major attractions for tourism, thus playing a significant role economy.Study focus: The expected impact future climate change on lake surface temperature (LSWT) was predicted using air2water model, which relies solely daily air (AT) as model input.LSWT AT observations period 1987-2016 were used calibration validation.Then, historical (1987Then, ( -2005) ) (2006-2100) time series from nine EURO-CORDEX models to project LSWT under emission scenarios RCP4.5 RCP8.5. New hydrological insights results showed that can well reproduce LWST with root mean square errors lower than 1 • C average.The warming trends both be those observed past decades (after 1980s), ice cover weak stratification conditions partially buffer response high winters.However, overall enduring will substantially alter thermal dynamics, leading shortening inverse periods, possibly serious consequences quality ecosystem health.

Language: Английский

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Long-term monitoring of water temperature and macroinvertebrates highlights climate change threat to alpine ponds in protected areas

Biological Conservation, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 290, P. 110461 - 110461

Published: Jan. 26, 2024

Climate change increasingly threatens alpine natural areas and notably aquatic systems. Alpine waterbodies, such as ponds, are particularly vulnerable to changes in temperature. Their biodiversity faces rising threats, especially for cold stenothermal species. Located at high elevation (>2600 m a.s.l.), the network of Macun catchment (35 ponds several streams) was put under a strict protection framework 2000 ("Swiss National Park") mitigate threats biodiversity. The pond has been regularly monitored sentinel change, through macroinvertebrate sampling physico-chemical measurements. Monitoring shows an alarmingly sharp increase summer water temperature, by 4 °C between 2005 2020 (2.7 per decade). In contrast, nutrient concentrations have remained low stable over these 15 years. species richness also mostly 2002 2021, with no negative impacts on stenotherms. Indeed, located elevation, stenotherms still living within their thermal range. Some colonised from lower elevations, so pondscape acts refuge migrating taxa. synthesis, our investigation highlights alarming abiotic condition high-elevation freshwater habitats, including temperature increase. It provides evidence that allows theses waterbodies remain refuges stenotherms, now. longer term, however, tipping point is likely be reached, potential collapse This demonstrates critical need continue longer-term monitoring ecosystems assess magnitude impairment implement suitable conservation strategies, enhanced or creation new habitats.

Language: Английский

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Is Everything Lost? Recreating the Surface Water Temperature of Unmonitored Lakes in Poland

Resources, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 14(4), P. 67 - 67

Published: April 18, 2025

One of the fundamental features lakes is water temperature, which determines functioning lake ecosystems. However, overall range information related to monitoring this parameter quite limited, both in terms number and duration measurements. This study addresses gap by reconstructing surface temperature (LSWT) six Poland from 1994 2023, where direct measurements were discontinued. The reconstruction based on Air2Water model, establishes a statistical relationship between LSWT air temperature. Model validation using historical observations demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency exceeding 0.92 root mean squared error ranging 0.97 °C 2.13 across lakes. A trend analysis Mann–Kendall test Sen’s slope estimator indicated statistically significant warming all lakes, an average increase 0.35 per decade. Monthly trends most pronounced June, September, November, 0.50 decade some cases. direction, pace, scale these changes are crucial for managing individual ecological economic perspective.

Language: Английский

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Less and thinner ice: seven decades of change in the ice cover of temperate lakes (Central Europe, Poland)

Acta Geophysica, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 24, 2025

Language: Английский

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Changes in the Compound Drought and Extreme Heat Occurrence in the 1961–2018 Period at the European Scale

Water, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 12(12), P. 3543 - 3543

Published: Dec. 16, 2020

Compound extreme weather events can cause large economic damage and endanger human lives. Therefore, identification of changes in such compound event frequency magnitude is important information that could be useful for decision makers practitioners water management agriculture sector. This especially the case dry hazards significantly influenced by increasing air temperature have significant impact on availability consumption as well agricultural production. study investigated occurrence drought heat at European scale using Uncertainties Ensembles Regional Reanalyses (UERRA) regional reanalysis data 1961–2018 period. The effective index (EDI) percentile threshold were used catchment where entire Europe was divided into more than 4000 catchments. results revealed multiple hotspots parts Western Europe, Italy, Balkan Peninsula Northern Eastern Europe. At continental scale, no uniform trend pattern detected. However, areas with either positive or negative identified. A change characteristic Peninsula, etc. In these cases, mostly driven decreasing total precipitation not directly affected trend. Areas include British Isles. detected an local drivers different.

Language: Английский

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Sunlight penetration dominates the thermal regime and energetics of a shallow ice-covered lake in arid climate

˜The œcryosphere, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 16(5), P. 1793 - 1806

Published: May 10, 2022

Abstract. The Mongolian Plateau is characterized by cold and arid winters with very little precipitation (snowfall), strong solar insolation, dry air, but known about the thermal regimes of ice ice-covered lakes their response to distinct weather climate in this region. In a typical large, shallow lake, snow processes (cover) under-ice thermodynamics were monitored for four 2015–2019. Heat transfer at ice–water interface lake heat budget investigated. results revealed that persistent bare 35–50 cm thickness transmits 20 %–35 % incident radiation into water below. This dominant source energy flows causes/maintains high temperature (up 6–8 ∘C) flux from (averages 20–45 W m−2) mid-winter, as well higher conduction interior during freezing. balance shows transmitted are highly correlated lake. Both bulk structure sensitive transmittance occasional events. Under-ice convective mixing does not necessarily occur because stratification salinity body. particular, salt exclusion freezing changes both profile, which plays major role stability column

Language: Английский

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The Impact of the Kakhovka Dam Destruction on the Water Temperature in the Lower Reaches of the Dnipro River and the Former Kakhovske Reservoir

Journal of Landscape Ecology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 17(2), P. 1 - 17

Published: June 10, 2024

Abstract The results of the studies devoted to consequences Kakhovka dam destruction and empting Kakhovske reservoir are presented. water regime lower reaches Dnipro River was studied, in particular, temperature. remote sensing data on spatial features temperature given. Significant changes shown both former reservoir. In first days after dam, due mixing, surface at mouth dropped significantly. Then river approached that one observed before destruction. turn, became a network branches lakes cannot be compared with Dniprovske Reservoir, located upstream, affects this territory, especially largest branch.

Language: Английский

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Thermal regime of the Dnipro Reservoirs

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 69(3), P. 300 - 310

Published: Aug. 10, 2021

Abstract Based on the results of regular monitoring and remote sensing data patterns water temperature reservoirs cascade Dnipro River were identified. A characteristic feature thermal regime Cascade has been increase over past decades. In period 1977–2020 in summer increased by 0.74 °C decade −1 , during May–October 0.65 . An important factor influencing is influence those ones, located upstream. Water from them discharged lower layer, where processes heating cooling are very slow. This a significant downstream reservoirs, especially their upper part. The this part spring seasons compared to natural conditions. autumn it higher. also depends latitude: rises both south. Another wind, which can change surface layer 5–6 °С. intensity algae bloom – higher spots large bloom.

Language: Английский

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Utilizing Multi-Source Datasets for the Reconstruction and Prediction of Water Temperature in Lake Miedwie (Poland)

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(15), P. 2753 - 2753

Published: July 27, 2024

Water temperature is a fundamental parameter of aquatic ecosystems. It directly influences most processes occurring within them. Hence, knowledge this parameter’s behavior, based on long-term (reliable) observations, crucial. Gaps in these observations can be filled using contemporary methodological solutions. Difficulties reconstructing water arise from the selection an appropriate methodology, and overcoming them involves proper input data choosing optimal modeling approach. This study employed air2water model Landsat satellite imagery to reconstruct Lake Miedwie (the fifth largest Poland), for which field conducted by Institute Meteorology Management—National Research ended late 1980s. The approach images case yielded less accurate results than analyses. However, it important emphasize advantage over point measurements spatial interpretation lake thermal conditions. In studied case, due lake’s shape, surface layer showed no significant contrasts. Based data, changes were determined, historically (1972–2023) amounted 0.20 °C per decade. According adopted climate change scenarios end 21st century (SSP245 SSP585), average annual will higher 1.8 3.2 °C, respectively. should emphasized that current simulated are unfavorable, especially considering impact quality. From economic perspective, serves as reservoir drinking water, regime considered management ecosystem.

Language: Английский

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