Dynamics and Detection of Pulsed Tremor at Whakaari (White Island), Aotearoa New Zealand DOI Creative Commons
B. Steinke, A. D. Jolly, Társilo Girona

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51(20)

Published: Oct. 23, 2024

Abstract Volcanic tremor is a crucial indicator for assessing the state and hazard potential of volcanic systems. At Whakaari (White Island volcano, Aotearoa New Zealand), pulsed signal emerged after hydrothermal explosion in August 2012. The accompanied extrusion lava dome, before gradually disappearing prior to onset renewed activity January 2013. We interpret this seismic represent discrete gas transfers from magmatic intrusion toward permeable cap—possibly seal—in upper layers Whakaari's system. Such may thus be associated with heightened hazardous explosive but difficult detect using conventional monitoring parameters. To highlight emergence subtle periodic signals, we experiment Lomb‐Scargle periodograms (LS). LS 5 days it becomes visible seismograms, facilitating recognition such elusive patterns.

Language: Английский

Accurate hindcasting of explosive eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand DOI Creative Commons
John Stix, Craig Miller, Yajing Liu

et al.

Volcanica, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(1), P. 153 - 164

Published: March 12, 2024

Phreatic eruptions are small, sudden events, commonly with few precursory signals. They driven by interactions between magmatic and hydrothermal processes at shallow levels beneath the surface. Here we show that a sequence of banded tremor which occurred several weeks before 9 December 2019 eruption Whakaari (White Island), New Zealand, can be used to hindcast this eruption. The reveals progressively decreasing time interval bands. Extrapolating bands zero provides an accurate estimate, least one week prior eruption, within 10.2 hours when would occur, 2.8-day range 95 % confidence intervals. A similar set signals appeared 27 April 2016 these provide very 2.61 hours, 2.2-day Our analysis indicates potential forecasting approach may prove useful for successfully accurately future Whakaari. also applicable other volcanoes experience phreatic phreatomagmatic eruptions.

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Probabilistic, Multi‐Sensor Eruption Forecasting DOI Creative Commons
Yannik Behr, Annemarie Christophersen, Craig Miller

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 52(8)

Published: April 23, 2025

Abstract We developed an eruption forecasting model using data from multiple sensors or streams with the Bayesian network method. The generates probabilistic forecasts that are interpretable and resilient against sensor outage. applied at Whakaari/White Island, andesite island volcano off coast of New Zealand, seismic tremor recordings, earthquake rate, CO 2 , SO H S emission rates. At our shows increases in probability months to weeks prior three explosive eruptions were recorded between 2013 2019. Our outperforms use any sets alone as indicator for impending eruptions. Although can be easily adapted other volcanoes, complementing existing methods rely on single streams.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Probabilistic, Multi-sensor Eruption Forecasting DOI
Yannik Behr, Annemarie Christophersen, Craig Miller

et al.

Authorea (Authorea), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Aug. 29, 2024

We developed an eruption forecasting model using data from multiple sensors or streams with the Bayesian Network method. The generates probabilistic forecasts that are interpretable and resilient against sensor outage. applied at Whakaari/White Island, andesite island volcano off coast of New Zealand, seismic tremor recordings, earthquake rate, CO2, SO2, H2S emission rates. At our shows increases in probability months to weeks prior three explosive eruptions were recorded since 2012. also observe consistently occurred after cumulative exceeded least 80%. Although for can be easily adapted other volcanoes, complementing existing methods rely on single streams.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Dynamics and Detection of Pulsed Tremor at Whakaari (White Island), Aotearoa New Zealand DOI Creative Commons
B. Steinke, A. D. Jolly, Társilo Girona

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51(20)

Published: Oct. 23, 2024

Abstract Volcanic tremor is a crucial indicator for assessing the state and hazard potential of volcanic systems. At Whakaari (White Island volcano, Aotearoa New Zealand), pulsed signal emerged after hydrothermal explosion in August 2012. The accompanied extrusion lava dome, before gradually disappearing prior to onset renewed activity January 2013. We interpret this seismic represent discrete gas transfers from magmatic intrusion toward permeable cap—possibly seal—in upper layers Whakaari's system. Such may thus be associated with heightened hazardous explosive but difficult detect using conventional monitoring parameters. To highlight emergence subtle periodic signals, we experiment Lomb‐Scargle periodograms (LS). LS 5 days it becomes visible seismograms, facilitating recognition such elusive patterns.

Language: Английский

Citations

0