Rising Temperatures, Falling Leaves: Predicting the Fate of Cyprus’s Endemic Oak under Climate and Land Use Change DOI Creative Commons
Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis, Ioannis Constantinou, Maria Panitsa

et al.

Plants, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 13(8), P. 1109 - 1109

Published: April 16, 2024

Endemic island species face heightened extinction risk from climate-driven shifts, yet standard models often underestimate threat levels for those like Quercus alnifolia, an iconic Cypriot oak with pre-adaptations to aridity. Through distribution modelling, we investigated the potential shifts in its under future climate and land-use change scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines dispersal constraints, detailed soil characteristics, hydrological factors, anticipated erosion data, offering a comprehensive assessment of environmental suitability. We quantified species’ sensitivity, exposure, vulnerability projected changes, conducting preliminary IUCN according Criteria A B. projections uniformly predict range reductions, median decrease 67.8% by 2070s most extreme Additionally, our research indicates alnifolia’s resilience diverse conditions preference relatively dry climates within specific annual temperature range. The designates alnifolia as Critically Endangered future, highlighting need focused conservation efforts. Climate changes are critical threats survival, emphasising importance modelling techniques urgent requirement dedicated measures safeguard this species.

Language: Английский

Spatially‐nested hierarchical species distribution models to overcome niche truncation in national‐scale studies DOI Creative Commons
Teresa Goicolea, Antoine Adde, Olivier Broennimann

et al.

Ecography, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: May 21, 2024

Spatial truncation in species distribution models (SDMs) might cause niche and model transferability issues, particularly when extrapolating to non‐analog environmental conditions. While broad calibration extents reduce they usually overlook local ecological factors driving distributions at finer resolution. Spatially‐nested hierarchical SDMs (HSDMs) address by merging (a) a global calibrated with broadly extended, yet typically low‐resolution, basic, imprecise data; (b) regional spatially restricted but more precise reliable data. This study aimed examine HSDMs' efficacy overcome spatial national‐scale studies. We compared two strategies (‘covariate', which uses the output as covariate for model, ‘multiply', calculates geometric mean of models) non‐hierarchical strategy. The three were terms truncation, extrapolation, performance, species' predicted shifts, trends richness. examined consistency results over areas (Spain Switzerland), 108 tree species, four future climate scenarios. Only strategy was susceptible extrapolation issues. Hierarchical strategies, ‘covariate' one, presented greater accuracy than strategies. highest overall values lowest decreases time ranges Differences between evident Switzerland, affected Spain negatively change extrapolation. exhibited higher performance ‘multiply' one. However, uncertainties regarding temporal advocate adopting further examining multiple approaches. research underscores importance spatially‐nested given compromised reliability approaches due

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Rising Temperatures, Falling Leaves: Predicting the Fate of Cyprus’s Endemic Oak under Climate and Land Use Change DOI Creative Commons
Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis, Ioannis Constantinou, Maria Panitsa

et al.

Plants, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 13(8), P. 1109 - 1109

Published: April 16, 2024

Endemic island species face heightened extinction risk from climate-driven shifts, yet standard models often underestimate threat levels for those like Quercus alnifolia, an iconic Cypriot oak with pre-adaptations to aridity. Through distribution modelling, we investigated the potential shifts in its under future climate and land-use change scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines dispersal constraints, detailed soil characteristics, hydrological factors, anticipated erosion data, offering a comprehensive assessment of environmental suitability. We quantified species’ sensitivity, exposure, vulnerability projected changes, conducting preliminary IUCN according Criteria A B. projections uniformly predict range reductions, median decrease 67.8% by 2070s most extreme Additionally, our research indicates alnifolia’s resilience diverse conditions preference relatively dry climates within specific annual temperature range. The designates alnifolia as Critically Endangered future, highlighting need focused conservation efforts. Climate changes are critical threats survival, emphasising importance modelling techniques urgent requirement dedicated measures safeguard this species.

Language: Английский

Citations

3