Climate projections of the Adriatic Sea: role of river release

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: April 29, 2024

The Adriatic Sea, characterized by unique local features in comparison to the broader Mediterranean stands out as a highly susceptible region climate change. In this context, our study involves focused downscaling approach, concentrating on water cycle. This encompasses integrated modeling at mesoscale, covering atmosphere, hydrology, and marine general circulation. period spans from 1992 2050, considering high emission scenario RCP8.5. We aim evaluating how river release projection affects density stratification sea level rise. Indeed, is found decrease approximately 35% mid-term future condition of column with differences between Northern Southern sub-basins. projected runoff has major impact sub-basin, where haline-dominated foreseen salinization prevails heating through whole column. Conversely, lower changes other mechanisms may play role, e.g., changing properties entering Otranto Strait intermediate deep provides first evidence decreasing discharge locally reduces stratification, increases dense water, mitigates rise thus acting opposite direction global warming. To minimize uncertainty coastal ocean projections around world, it essential that integrates high-resolution hydrology hydrodynamics models correctly reproduce link surface buoyancy resulting dynamics.

Language: Английский

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Projected climate oligotrophication of the Adriatic marine ecosystems

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Feb. 2, 2024

The Adriatic Sea hosts diverse marine ecosystems, characterized by rich biodiversity and unique ecological dynamics. Its intricate coastal habitats open waters support a range of species contribute to the region's economic significance. Unraveling consequences ongoing climate changes on this delicate environment is essential ensure future safeguard basin. To tackle problem, we developed biogeochemical model for entire basin, with horizontal resolution about 2 km 120 vertical levels, forced projections atmosphere, hydrology ocean circulation between 1992 2050, under emission scenario RCP8.5. projected 2031–2050 1992–2011 were evaluated ecoregions different trophic conditions, identified using k-medoid classification technique. results point toward generalized oligotrophication especially intense in northern estuarine areas, driven substantial decrease river discharge rivers Po Plain. This unproductive declining resources, together warming, salinization, acidification waters, cast doubt long-term resilience Northern food web structure, which has evolved thrive high conditions. outcome study provides stakeholders tool understand how potential decreases regimes Rivers could affect ecosystem its goods services future.

Language: Английский

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Enhancing estuary salinity prediction: A Machine Learning and Deep Learning based approach

Applied Computing and Geosciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 23, P. 100173 - 100173

Published: June 18, 2024

As critical transitional ecosystems, estuaries are facing the increasingly urgent threat of salt wedge intrusion, which impacts their ecological balance as well human-dependent activities. Accurately predicting estuary salinity is essential for water resource management, ecosystem preservation, and ensuring sustainable development along coastlines. In this study, we investigated application different machine learning deep models to predict levels within estuarine environments. Leveraging techniques, including Random Forest, Least-Squares Boosting, Artificial Neural Network Long Short-Term Memory networks, aim was enhance predictive accuracy in order better understand complex interplay factors influencing dynamics. The Po River (Po di Goro), one main hotspots selected study area. Comparative analyses with state-of-the-art physics-based Estuary box model (EBM) Hybrid-EBM were conducted assess performances. results highlighted an improvement performance, a reduction RMSE (from 4.22 psu obtained by EBM 2.80 LSBoost-Season) increase R2 score 0.67 0.85 LSBoost-Season), computed on test set. We also explored impact variables contributions capabilities models. Overall, demonstrates feasibility effectiveness ML-based approaches estimating due intrusion estuaries. insights from could significantly support smart management strategies, not only estuary, but other location.

Language: Английский

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The freshwater discharge into the Adriatic Sea revisited

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: April 23, 2024

The present study reconstructs the river discharge climatology and its respective historical series for all rivers of Adriatic Sea with averaged climatological daily above 1 m 3 s −1 , to reach a better representation in hydrodynamic models and, consequently, develop more realistic freshwater balance different regions hydrographic basin. Based on European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) data set, careful method identification selection rivers, followed by rigorous assessment against observational data, was developed evaluate current state discharges their trends throughout several climate indicators from 1991 2022. Observational are limited 85% identified totaling 98% overall input into Sea. results confirm that Shallow Northern receives largest inputs average exceeding 2,400 which amounts 61% discharges. Consequently, this region guides seasonal cycle Sea, presents well-defined pattern two flood peaks late autumn spring, separated minimum period at mid-summer. From Central Southern subregions, absence snow-melting effects prevents secondary peak during shaping single drought August. 32 years continuous reveal negligible trend but negative last decade (2013–2022). This decadal decrease is driven extreme drastically pounded northern

Language: Английский

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The Eastern Mediterranean Sea mean sea level decadal slowdown: the effects of the water budget

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 7

Published: Feb. 7, 2025

This paper analyses the decadal variability of Mean Sea Level (MSL) trend for Mediterranean and three subregions using a combination satellite altimetry, tide gauges reanalyses datasets past 30 years (1993–2022). These estimates indicate MSL across analysed period, slowdown in 2013–2022 decade compared to previous periods. While overall remains positive basin, regional differences are evident. The Western shows an accelerating trend, consistent with global sea level rise, while Eastern has experienced slowdown, particularly semi-enclosed Adriatic Aegean Seas, where negative trends observed. is attributed combined effects changes water cycle balancing thermal haline steric components. A key driver this increased evaporation, which not offset by precipitation, runoff, or transport through Straits. results underscore significance Mediterranean’s budget influencing highlight complexity modelling interpreting changes. findings suggest that continued monitoring better understanding budgets crucial refining future projections developing effective climate adaptation strategies coastal areas.

Language: Английский

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Extraordinary mucilage event in the northern Adriatic in 2024—a glimpse into the future climate?

Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 109222 - 109222

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Holocene landscape changes and human impact in Southern Italy: A case-study from the Mar Piccolo semi-enclosed marine basin (Taranto)

CATENA, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 254, P. 108962 - 108962

Published: March 30, 2025

Language: Английский

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Idiosyncratic patterns of Chlorophyll-a anomalies in response to marine heatwaves in the Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea) over the last two decades

Marine Environmental Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 107144 - 107144

Published: April 1, 2025

In the open ocean, marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been associated to a decline of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration in tropical and temperate areas while, at higher latitudes, they seem enhance phytoplankton productivity. Currently, uncertainties remain on outcomes MHWs primary production coastal heterogenous regions. We analyzed long-term modeled satellite-derived data sea surface temperature Chl-a Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea), semi-enclosed basin where open-sea environmental conditions co-occur, explore responses MHWs. found that both low high anomalies were strictly dependent MHWs, although following direct or inverse relationships different areas, as consequence regional-scale heterogeneities nutrient availability, riverine inputs, circulation geomorphology. Along west coast shallow North Central Adriatic, frequency, duration intensity corresponded frequency peaks and/or increased anomalies, suggesting pronounced fluctuations with intense blooms alternating extremely events. Conversely, offshore deeper especially South inversely correlated indicating possible reduction biomass organic matter flow towards floor. Prolonged may therefore drive shifts ecosystem-wide effects pelagic areas. These multifaceted MHW-Chl-a interactions observed emphasize need for context-specific assessments environmentally complex regions develop management strategies addressing ecological socioeconomic issues arising from unrelenting increase anomalies.

Language: Английский

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Future climate projections in the global coastal ocean

Progress In Oceanography, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 103497 - 103497

Published: May 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Evaluation of atmospheric indicators in the Adriatic coastal areas: a multi-hazards approach for a better awareness of the current and future climate

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Feb. 28, 2024

Increasing climate resilience to global warming is one of the main challenges last few decades. Effective local measures have be adopted provide concrete solutions current and expected impacts change. This goal AdriaClim Italia-Croatia Interreg Project ( https://www.italy-croatia.eu/web/adriaclim ), aimed at supporting development regional change adaptation plans for Adriatic coastal regions. For this purpose, an exhaustive number atmospheric indicators been identified evaluated across nine pilot areas assess hazards affecting these regions, considering worst-case emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 8.5). The proposed analyses are provided by results model developed within Project. selected used possible evolution hazard areas, covering different hazards, such as thermal discomfort, drought, hydrological instability. A site-dependent investigation emphasize which regions more affected than others investigated thus warranting attention in defining proposing new strategies. highlight increasing temperatures (up +3°C) with emphasis on Northern Adriatic, where combined effect relevant decrease precipitation (down −2 mm/day) may lead severe drought conditions coming In contrast, precipitation-related diseases hit Central South Italy except Emilia-Romagna region, found highly sensitive both categories. Finally, it that carefully considered strategies due lack uncertainty estimates representing a fundamental element decision-makers.

Language: Английский

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