An ensemble-based assessment of bias adjustment performance, changes in hydrometeorological predictors and compound extreme events in EAS-CORDEX DOI Creative Commons
Patrick Olschewski, Patrick Laux, Jianhui Wei

et al.

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 39, P. 100531 - 100531

Published: Nov. 28, 2022

The effectiveness of adaptive measures tackling the effects climate change is dependent on robust projections. This becomes even more important in face intensifying extreme events. One example these events flooding, which embodies a major threat to highly vulnerable coastal urban areas. includes eastern Asia, where multiple megacities are located, e.g. Shanghai and Shenzhen. While ability general circulation models (GCMs) regional (RCMs) project atmospheric changes associated with has improved, systematic errors (biases) remain. study therefore assess capabilities improving quality projections for Asia. performed by evaluating an ensemble consisting bias adjustment methods, GCM-RCM model runs future emission scenarios based representative concentration pathways (RCP) obtained from EAS-CORDEX. We show that significantly improves output best results applying quantile delta mapping. Based we evaluate potential crucial hydrometeorological predictors, univariate compound events, focusing high wind speeds precipitation. Key findings include increase daily maximum temperature 1.5 nearly 4 °C, depending scenario, as well increased levels precipitation under RCP 8.5. Furthermore, distinct intensification including temperatures heavy detected this exceeds overall mean predictors. annual number shows significant up 50% 8.5 South China Sea adjacent

Language: Английский

Long-term variability of extreme precipitation with WRF model at a complex terrain River Basin DOI Creative Commons
Yinchi Zhang, Chao Deng, Wanling Xu

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Jan. 2, 2025

Global warming has profound effects on precipitation patterns, leading to more frequent and extreme events over the world. These changes pose significant challenges sustainable development of socio-economic ecological environments. This study evaluated performance new generation mesoscale Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating long-term Minjiang River Basin (MRB) China from 1981 2020. We calculated 12 indices WRF simulations compared them with observations. The spatio-temporal variations were further analyzed terms intensity, frequency, duration. results indicated that can appropriately reproduce spatial distribution acceptable biases. is significantly better for intensity frequency duration indices. Except PRCPTOT R10mm, accurately captures interannual precipitation. Meanwhile, pre-whitening Mann-Kendall (PWMK) test suggested identify increasing trends precipitation, particularly R95p, R99p, R50mm. provides valuable insights forecasting warning other mountainous regions.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Assessing exposure to climate extremes over the Arabian Peninsula using ERA5 reanalysis data: Spatial distribution and temporal trends DOI
Ali Salem Al‐Sakkaf, Jiahua Zhang, Fengmei Yao

et al.

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 300, P. 107224 - 107224

Published: Jan. 4, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

15
Causes of the severe drought in Southwest China during the summer of 2022 DOI

Yun Zhu,

Yang Li, Xin Zhou

et al.

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 303, P. 107320 - 107320

Published: March 5, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

8
Evaluation of ERA5-Land reanalysis datasets for extreme temperatures in the Qilian Mountains of China DOI Creative Commons
Peng Zhao,

Zhibin He,

Dengke Ma

et al.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: Feb. 24, 2023

An increase in extreme temperature events could have a significant impact on terrestrial ecosystems. Reanalysis data are an important set for estimation mountainous areas with few meteorological stations. The ability of ERA5-Land reanalysis to capture the index published by Expert Team Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) was evaluated using observational from 17 stations Qilian Mountains (QLM) during 1979–2017. results show that can well daily maximum temperature, two warm extremes (TXx TX90p) one cold (FD0) QLM. ERA5-Land’s is best summer worst spring winter. In addition, trends all indices except range (DTR). main bias due difference elevation between ground observation station grid point. simulation accuracy increases decrease difference. provide reference study local data.

Language: Английский

Citations

16
Extreme precipitation and temperature indices under future climate change in central Asia based on CORDEX-CORE DOI Creative Commons
Praveen Rai, Freddy Bangelesa, Daniel Abel

et al.

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 155(7), P. 6015 - 6039

Published: May 6, 2024

Abstract The present study analyzes the projected changes of extreme climate indices over Central Asia using regional model (RCM) simulations from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) - Output for Evaluations (CORE). are based on precipitation and temperature inspected (1981–2005) future periods near- (2031–2055) far-future (2071–2095) to assess long-term change under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5. Projected analyzed three different ensembles. These ensembles CORDEX-Central (ENS_CAS, four ensemble members) CORDEX-East (ENS_EAS, six members), a combination both (ENS, ten our area centered high mountain Asia, called East (CEAS). For indices, an increase consecutive dry days (CDD) in ENS_EAS slight moderate decrease northern parts ENS_CAS during near-future is observed. Consecutive wet (CWD), very heavy events (R20mm), maximum one-day (RX1day), (R95p) most areas. All show further intensification towards end century large domain, e.g., + 7.8% / +5.6 CDD, 96.6% +0.26 R20mm, 19.7% RX1day as median ENS CEAS. project strong regions southern summer (CSU, 108.5% +38.3 days), heat wave duration index (HWDI, 1379.1% +91.37 percentage hot (TX90p, 391.1% +34.54 days). Accordingly, number frost (CFD, -43.7% -25.2 days) cold (TX10p, -83.4% -8.13 decrease. first-time usage CORDEX-CORE larger size by considering overlapping domains robustness findings earlier studies. However, some discrepancies prevail among RCMs being part two CORDEX-domains specific landscapes like complex mountainous or lake uncertainties may be tackled development with improved land-surface processes potentially higher spatial resolution.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Spring Irrigation Reduces the Frequency and Intensity of Summer Extreme Heat Events in the North China Plain DOI Creative Commons

Guoshuai Liu,

Weiguang Wang,

Hui Xu

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51(5)

Published: March 2, 2024

Abstract Irrigation has distinct impacts on extreme temperatures. Due to the carryover effect of soil moisture into other seasons, temperature irrigation are not limited irrigated seasons. Focusing North China Plain, where occurs in both spring (March‐April‐May) and summer (June‐July‐August), with a higher proportion water applied during spring, we investigate impact heat events. Based partial correlation analysis data products, find positive correlations between moisture, suggesting that irrigation‐induced surplus persists following affects regional climate by impacting surface energy partitioning. Regional simulations confirm cross‐seasonal climatic effects show reduces frequency intensity events approximately −2.5 days −0.29°C, respectively. Our results highlight importance mitigating extremes.

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Effect of water vapor transport and budget on precipitation in the Yangtze–Huang–Huai–Hai River Basin DOI Creative Commons
Haodong Deng, Qingming Wang, Yong Zhao

et al.

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 53, P. 101787 - 101787

Published: April 17, 2024

The Yangtze−Huang−Huai−Hai River basin (3.19 million km2) in China, which is vital for China's economic development. We employed the Eulerian method to identify primary water vapor channels from 2005 2020, and net budget over was calculated. Additionally, Lagrangian utilized simulate transport trajectories across four seasons, with aim of investigating influence changes on precipitation. Utilizing both methods, findings indicate that: (1) Precipitation experienced a downward trend −3.5 mm·a−1 during 2005−2020, mainly spring (−1.4 mm·a−1) summer (−1.7 mm·a−1); (2) has substantial (−0.9 kg·m−1·s−1·a−1), (−0.4 kg·m−1·s−1·a−1) (−0.3 aligns declining (3) Hybrid Single Particle Integrated Trajectory Model demonstrates that decrease long−distance impacts basin's channels. decline predominantly influenced by Asia, Europe, Africa−Arctic Ocean (−0.7 %·a−1), while driven trajectory Indian Ocean−South China Sea %·a−1). This study improves existing understanding hydrological cycle context basin, offers crucial scientific basis resource management regulation.

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Anthropogenic emissions and land use/cover change contributions to extreme temperature changes over China DOI
Wanling Xu,

Tianshu Lin,

Xiangyong Lei

et al.

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 292, P. 106845 - 106845

Published: June 5, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

11
Evaluation of the surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau among different reanalysis datasets DOI Creative Commons
Yuzhuo Peng, Anmin Duan, Chao Zhang

et al.

Frontiers in Environmental Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: March 7, 2023

The surface air temperature (SAT) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) not only affects physical processes such as local evaporation, snow melting, and glacier ablation, but also has a great impact on downstream regions even global climate change. development of reanalysis data gradually overcome problem sparse stations TP, there are still some deficiencies. Therefore, distance between indices simulation observation (DISO) method is used to calculate five datasets (ERA5, JRA-55, ERA-Interim, MERRA2, NCEP2) CMFD evaluate abilities different capture SAT TP in seasons. results indicate that ERA-Interim higher ability reproduce spring summer, while it ERA5 autumn winter. It should be noted although optimal better performance capturing certain degree deviations their spatial fields. We further show deviation fields corresponding seasons, analyze possible reasons. result implies field mainly related winter spring, summer water vapor, both vapor Overall, quality needs improved future.

Language: Английский

Citations

10
Evaluation of ERA5-Simulated Temperature and Its Extremes for Australia DOI Creative Commons
Dipayan Choudhury, Fei Ji, Nidhi Nishant

et al.

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(6), P. 913 - 913

Published: May 24, 2023

Atmospheric reanalysis products offer high-resolution and long-term gridded datasets that can often be used as an alternative or a supplement to observational data. Although more accessible than typical data deemed fit for climate change studies, show biases resulting from assimilation approaches. Thus, thorough evaluation of the product over region metric study is critical. Here, we evaluate performance latest generation ECMWF reanalysis, ERA5, in simulating mean extreme temperatures Australia 1979–2020 versus high-quality observations. We find ERA5 generally simulates maximum minimum reasonably well (mean bias ~1.5 °C), even though it underestimates/overestimates daily maximum/minimum temperatures, leading cold Tmax warm Tmin. also underestimates decadal warming trend both Tmin compared Furthermore, struggles simulate temporal variability Tmin, markedly worse skill Tmax. In terms indices, skilled at capturing spatial patterns trends extremes, albeit with presence each index. This partially attributed temperature. Overall, captures temperature indices Australian continent well, warranting its potential observations aiding change-related downscaling boundary conditions, model evaluation.

Language: Английский

Citations

10