Potential Distribution Prediction of Terminalia chebula Retz. in China Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios DOI Creative Commons
Zhanghong Dong, Hua Jiang, Wei Zhang

et al.

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(2)

Published: Jan. 28, 2025

ABSTRACT Climate change in the future could potentially expand, shrink, or alter habitats of numerous species, leading to changes their spatial distributions. Predicting suitable areas for cultivating medicinal plants through modeling has become an effective tool assessing site suitability and conserving plant resources. Utilizing GIS MaxEnt model, we predicted distribution Terminalia chebula Retz. China current (2050s 2070s) under RCP4.5 RCP8.5 representative concentration pathways. In this study, utilized 73 occurrence records incorporated eight environmental factors from WorldClim process. The findings revealed that evaluation model's performance was based on area curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic (ROC). All AUC values exceeded 0.9, classifying these models as “Excellent.” Additionally, jackknife test analysis main influential variables were bio11 bio4. Under present climate conditions, estimated total habitat T. is approximately 29.14 × 10 4 km 2 , representing around 2.78% China's land area. Within regions, high suitability, medium low make up 0.39%, 0.54%, 1.85% area, respectively. According climate, potential growth range expected expand due variability, showing a significant pattern expansion towards north east within China. 2050s 2070s, regions with will increase compared distribution. This study provide theoretical suggestions preservation, management, sustainable utilization

Language: Английский

Potential Distribution Prediction of Terminalia chebula Retz. in China Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios DOI Creative Commons
Zhanghong Dong, Hua Jiang, Wei Zhang

et al.

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(2)

Published: Jan. 28, 2025

ABSTRACT Climate change in the future could potentially expand, shrink, or alter habitats of numerous species, leading to changes their spatial distributions. Predicting suitable areas for cultivating medicinal plants through modeling has become an effective tool assessing site suitability and conserving plant resources. Utilizing GIS MaxEnt model, we predicted distribution Terminalia chebula Retz. China current (2050s 2070s) under RCP4.5 RCP8.5 representative concentration pathways. In this study, utilized 73 occurrence records incorporated eight environmental factors from WorldClim process. The findings revealed that evaluation model's performance was based on area curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic (ROC). All AUC values exceeded 0.9, classifying these models as “Excellent.” Additionally, jackknife test analysis main influential variables were bio11 bio4. Under present climate conditions, estimated total habitat T. is approximately 29.14 × 10 4 km 2 , representing around 2.78% China's land area. Within regions, high suitability, medium low make up 0.39%, 0.54%, 1.85% area, respectively. According climate, potential growth range expected expand due variability, showing a significant pattern expansion towards north east within China. 2050s 2070s, regions with will increase compared distribution. This study provide theoretical suggestions preservation, management, sustainable utilization

Language: Английский

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