Accounting for forest fire risks: global insights for climate change mitigation DOI Creative Commons
Long Chu, R. Quentin Grafton, Harry W. Nelson

et al.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 28(8)

Published: Nov. 4, 2023

Abstract Fire is an important risk in global forest loss and contributed 20% to 25% of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions between 1997 2016. Forest fire risks will increase with climate change some locations, but existing estimates costs using forests for mitigation do not yet fully account these or how inter-temporally. To quantify importance risks, we undertook a study individual country combining economic datasets remote sensing data from 2001 2020. Our premia better burning that would be additional risk-free break-even price credits offsets promote carbon sequestration storage forests. results show following: (1) can much larger than historical area burned; (2) countries, have large impact on relative country-level offsets; (3) spatial inter-temporal heterogeneity fires across countries 2020; (4) properly incorporating into credits/offset programs. As part our analysis, emphasise possible sub-national scale differences, highlight 10 Canadian provinces.

Language: Английский

National report on sustainable forests, 2020 DOI Open Access
Kathleen McGinley, Lara T. Murray, Guy Robertson

et al.

Published: May 17, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

102
Comprehensive review of carbon quantification by improved forest management offset protocols DOI Creative Commons
Barbara Haya, Samuel Lewin Evans,

Letty B. Brown

et al.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: March 21, 2023

Improved forest management (IFM) has the potential to remove and store large quantities of carbon from atmosphere. Around world, 293 IFM offset projects have produced 11% credits by voluntary registries date, channeling substantial climate mitigation funds into projects. This paper summarizes state scientific literature for key quality criteria—additionality, baselines, leakage, durability, accounting—and discusses how well currently used protocols align with this literature. Our analysis identifies important areas where deviate understanding related risk reversal, accounting in forests harvested wood products, risking significant over-estimation credits. We recommend specific improvements that would likely result more accurate estimates program impact, identify need research. Most importantly, conservative baselines can substantially reduce, but not resolve, over-crediting multiple factors.

Language: Английский

Citations

63
Priority science can accelerate agroforestry as a natural climate solution DOI
Drew E. Terasaki Hart, Samantha Yeo, Maya Almaraz

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(11), P. 1179 - 1190

Published: Sept. 28, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

52
State of Wildfires 2023–2024 DOI Creative Commons
Matthew W. Jones, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle Burton

et al.

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(8), P. 3601 - 3685

Published: Aug. 13, 2024

Abstract. Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society environment. However, our understanding global distribution extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying events from March 2023–February 2024 season. We assess causes, predictability, attribution these climate land use forecast future risks under different scenarios. During 2023–2024 season, 3.9×106 km2 burned slightly below average previous seasons, but carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totalling 2.4 Pg C. Global C record in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times average) reduced low African savannahs. Notable included record-breaking extent Canada, largest recorded wildfire European Union (Greece), drought-driven western Amazonia northern parts South America, deadly Hawaii (100 deaths) Chile (131 deaths). Over 232 000 people evacuated Canada alone, highlighting severity human impact. Our revealed that multiple drivers needed cause areas activity. In Greece, a combination high weather an abundance dry fuels probability fires, whereas area anomalies weaker regions lower fuel loads higher direct suppression, particularly Canada. Fire prediction showed mild anomalous signal 1 2 months advance, Greece had shorter predictability horizons. Attribution indicated modelled up 40 %, 18 50 due during respectively. Meanwhile, seasons magnitudes has significantly anthropogenic change, 2.9–3.6-fold increase likelihood 20.0–28.5-fold Amazonia. By end century, similar magnitude 2023 are projected occur 6.3–10.8 more frequently medium–high emission scenario (SSP370). represents first annual effort catalogue events, explain their occurrence, predict risks. consolidating state-of-the-art science delivering key insights relevant policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, managers, we aim enhance society's resilience promote advances preparedness, mitigation, adaptation. New datasets presented this work available https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11400539 (Jones et al., 2024) https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11420742 (Kelley 2024a).

Language: Английский

Citations

31
Australian human-induced native forest regeneration carbon offset projects have limited impact on changes in woody vegetation cover and carbon removals DOI Creative Commons
Andrew Macintosh, Don W. Butler, Pablo Rozas Larraondo

et al.

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: March 26, 2024

Abstract Carbon offsets are a widely used climate policy instrument that can reduce mitigation costs and generate important environmental social co-benefits. However, they increase emissions if lack integrity. We analysed the performance of one world’s largest nature-based offset types: human-induced regeneration projects under Australia’s carbon scheme. The supposed to involve permanent even-aged native forests through changes in land management. 182 found limited evidence credited areas. Changes woody vegetation cover within areas have been also largely mirror adjacent comparison areas, outside projects, suggesting observable predominantly attributable factors other than project activities. results add growing literature highlighting practical limitations potential for schemes credit abatement is non-existent, non-additional potentially impermanent.

Language: Английский

Citations

16
The social value of offsets DOI
Ben Groom, Frank Venmans

Nature, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 619(7971), P. 768 - 773

Published: July 5, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

31
Strong transparency required for carbon credit mechanisms DOI
Philippe Delacote, Tara L’Horty, Andreas Kontoleon

et al.

Nature Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(6), P. 706 - 713

Published: March 27, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

15
Prioritizing Opportunities to Empower Forest Carbon Decisions Through Strategic Investment in Forest Modeling Capacity DOI
Christopher W. Woodall, Holly L. Munro, Jeff W. Atkins

et al.

Journal of Forestry, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 26, 2025

Forest ecosystems play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle, acting as substantial sinks and offering pathways for climate change mitigation adaptation strategies, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emission offsetting bioeconomic opportunities collectively referred to Natural Climate Solutions (NCS). Over 100 forest modeling experts, primarily from US, were engaged through Carbon Modeling Group (FCMG) identify prioritize research needs, opportunities, knowledge gaps refining application of NCS meet growing spectrum GHG strategies initially focused on US forests with possible applicability other temperate/boreal systems. This engagement informed development framework decision-making, which offers scalable, hierarchical, transdisciplinary approach that can address immediate needs (e.g., regeneration modeling) while advancing critical, long-term scientific advances lateral flux aligns technology model perspectives across users sectors over .

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Resilient tree-planting strategies for carbon dioxide removal under compounding climate and economic uncertainties DOI Creative Commons
Frankie Cho,

Paolo Aglonucci,

Ian J. Bateman

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 122(10)

Published: March 3, 2025

To meet decarbonization targets, nations around the globe have made ambitious commitments to expand forested land. Operationalizing these requires choosing a planting strategy: How many trees should be planted, of which species, and where? Given those choices must now but long-term consequences, such decisions are plagued by uncertainty. For example, species that well suited present conditions may perform poorly under future climates, yet climates themselves highly uncertain. Using exemplar United Kingdom, nation committed achieving net zero emissions midcentury, we quantify key uncertainties pertaining coevolving climate economic examine how modern methods decision-making uncertainty can advise on choices. Our analysis reveals best strategy assuming "high-emissions" is radically different for remains "near-historic" path. Planting former while experiencing latter results in substantial costs UK society. Assimilating into identifies strategies diversify risk significantly reduce probability high-cost outcomes. Importantly, our research scope mitigating through choice relatively limited. Despite this persistent risk, find tree cost-effective carbon removal solution when compared alternative technologies, even alternatives assumed riskless.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Toward quantification of the feasible potential of land-based carbon dioxide removal DOI Creative Commons
Oliver Perkins, Peter Alexander, Almut Arneth

et al.

One Earth, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(12), P. 1638 - 1651

Published: Dec. 1, 2023

Global climate-change overshoot scenarios, where warming exceeds Paris Agreement limits before being brought back down, are highly dependent on land-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR). In the Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), such scenarios supported by optimistic global assessments of technical and economic potential for CDR. However, a further type potential—the "feasible" potential, which includes socio-cultural, environmental, institutional factors—is noted in AR6 but not quantified. Here, we set out research frameworks to work toward quantification this feasible potential. We first argue that quantifying will substantially reduce current assessed CDR Second, demonstrate how transdisciplinary methods improving understanding feasibility constraints Third, explore synthesizing these advances during next IPCC assessment process. conclude community should carefully consider use techno-economic evidence policymakers.

Language: Английский

Citations

18