Mixed signals of environmental change and a trend towards ecological homogenization in ground vegetation across different forest types DOI Creative Commons
Janez Kermavnar, Lado Kutnar

Folia Geobotanica, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 58(3-4), P. 333 - 352

Published: March 27, 2024

Abstract Forest ground vegetation may serve as an early warning system for monitoring anthropogenic global-change impacts on temperate forests. Climate warming induce a decline of cool-adapted species to the benefit more thermophilous plants. Nitrogen deposition has been documented potentially result in soil eutrophication or acidification, which can increase proportion with higher nutrient requirements and impoverishment caused by competitive exclusion. Abiotic forest disturbances are changing light conditions understorey environment. In this resurvey study, we tested magnitude direction change alpha (species richness) beta (within-site dissimilarity) diversity composition forests different types Slovenia over fifteen years. Using plant-derived characteristics (Ellenberg-type indicator values) testing priori predictions concerning expected effects environmental drivers, show that floristic changes varies greatly between sites. Divergent responses at sites resulted low net weak overall signal. The largest decrease number was observed lowland oak-hornbeam forests, were also among greatest compositional shifts. Changes did not any consistent trend, anticipated convergence confirmed when all considered. Thermophilization mainly detected montane beech alpine spruce whereas signal most significant nutrient-poor Vegetation strongly dependent initial site conditions. Shrinkage ecological gradients (process homogenization) suggests positioned ends losing their original character becoming similar mid-gradient generally exhibit smaller changes. Our results point importance local stand dynamics overstorey explaining temporal trends vegetation. Ground Slovenian is directions dictated multiple regional global drivers.

Language: Английский

Prediction of the Future Evolution Trends of Prunus sibirica in China Based on the Key Climate Factors Using MaxEnt Modeling DOI Creative Commons
Jiazhi Wang, Jiming Cheng, Chao Zhang

et al.

Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 13(12), P. 973 - 973

Published: Nov. 25, 2024

Mountain apricot (Prunus sibirica) is an important fruit tree variety, and has a wide range of planting application value in China even the world. However, current research on suitable distribution area P. sibirica still inconclusive. In this study, we retrieved data for from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), identified six key environmental factors influencing its through cluster analysis. Using these selected climate points China, applied maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to evaluate 1160 candidate models parameter optimization. The final results predict potential under as well two future scenarios (SSPs126 SSPs585). This study shows that optimized with (AUC = 0.897, TSS 0.658) outperforms full using nineteen 0.894, 0.592). Under high-emission scenario (SSPs585), highly habitat expected gradually shrink towards southeast northwest, while expanding northeast southwest. After 2050s, habitats are projected completely disappear Shandong, new areas may emerge Tibet. Additionally, total increase future, more significant expansion (SSPs585) compared low-emission (SSPs126) (7.33% vs. 0.16%). Seasonal changes precipitation most influential factor driving sibirica.

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Developing and Validating Species Distribution Models for Wetland Plants Across Europe DOI Creative Commons

Ojaswi Sumbh,

Marjon Hellegers, Valerio Barbarossa

et al.

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(4)

Published: April 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Drainage, agricultural conversion, and climate change threaten wetlands their unique biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) can help to identify effective conservation measures. However, existing SDMs for wetland plants are often geographically limited, miss variables representing hydrological conditions, neglect moss species, essential many wetlands. Here, we developed validated 265 vascular plant species characteristic of European wetlands, using environmental climate, soil, hydrology, anthropogenic pressures. We the spatial predictions through cross‐validation against independent data from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). Further, niche optima as obtained modelled response curves, with empirical optima. The validation revealed good predictive power SDMs, especially diagnostic mosses, which median cross‐validated values area under curve (AUC) true skill statistic (TSS) 0.93 0.73, respectively, a positive rate (TPR) based on GBIF records 0.77. performed well, too, AUC, TSS, TPR 0.91, 0.69, 0.67, respectively. non‐diagnostic had lowest performance, 0.84, 0.53, 0.62, Correlations between were typically in expected direction. Climate variables, particularly mean temperature coldest month, strongest predictors occurrence. At same time, groundwater table depth was significant predictor but not mosses. concluded that our suitable predicting broad‐scale patterns distributions governed by climatic conditions. Alternative or additional different modelling approach might be needed represent better local heterogeneity conditions

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Mixed signals of environmental change and a trend towards ecological homogenization in ground vegetation across different forest types DOI Creative Commons
Janez Kermavnar, Lado Kutnar

Folia Geobotanica, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 58(3-4), P. 333 - 352

Published: March 27, 2024

Abstract Forest ground vegetation may serve as an early warning system for monitoring anthropogenic global-change impacts on temperate forests. Climate warming induce a decline of cool-adapted species to the benefit more thermophilous plants. Nitrogen deposition has been documented potentially result in soil eutrophication or acidification, which can increase proportion with higher nutrient requirements and impoverishment caused by competitive exclusion. Abiotic forest disturbances are changing light conditions understorey environment. In this resurvey study, we tested magnitude direction change alpha (species richness) beta (within-site dissimilarity) diversity composition forests different types Slovenia over fifteen years. Using plant-derived characteristics (Ellenberg-type indicator values) testing priori predictions concerning expected effects environmental drivers, show that floristic changes varies greatly between sites. Divergent responses at sites resulted low net weak overall signal. The largest decrease number was observed lowland oak-hornbeam forests, were also among greatest compositional shifts. Changes did not any consistent trend, anticipated convergence confirmed when all considered. Thermophilization mainly detected montane beech alpine spruce whereas signal most significant nutrient-poor Vegetation strongly dependent initial site conditions. Shrinkage ecological gradients (process homogenization) suggests positioned ends losing their original character becoming similar mid-gradient generally exhibit smaller changes. Our results point importance local stand dynamics overstorey explaining temporal trends vegetation. Ground Slovenian is directions dictated multiple regional global drivers.

Language: Английский

Citations

3