Wildfire management decisions outweigh mechanical treatment as the keystone to forest landscape adaptation DOI Creative Commons
Tucker J. Furniss, Nicholas A. Povak, Paul F. Hessburg

et al.

Fire Ecology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 20(1)

Published: Dec. 18, 2024

Abstract Background Modern land management faces unprecedented uncertainty regarding future climates, novel disturbance regimes, and unanticipated ecological feedbacks. Mitigating this requires a cohesive landscape strategy that utilizes multiple methods to optimize benefits while hedging risks amidst uncertain futures. We used process-based simulation model (LANDIS-II) forecast forest management, growth, climate effects, wildfire dynamics, we distilled results using decision support tool allowing us examine tradeoffs between alternative strategies. developed plausible scenarios based on factorial combinations of restoration-oriented thinning prescriptions, prescribed fire, wildland fire use. Results were assessed continuously for 100-year period, which provided unique assessment among seven primary topics representing social , economic aspects resilience. Projected climatic changes had substantial impact modeled activity. In the Wildfire Only scenario (no treatments, but including active change), observed an upwards inflection point in area burned around mid-century (2060) detrimental impacts total carbon storage. While simulated mechanical treatments (~ 3% per year) reduced incidence high-severity it did not eliminate completely. Scenarios involving use resulted greater reductions more linear trend cumulative burned. Mechanical beneficial subtopics under topic given their positive financial return investment, better subtopics, primarily due reduction fire. Benefits mixed, reflecting inevitability landscapes rely diverse countervailing ecosystem services. Conclusions This study provides evidence optimal will involve mix passive strategies, different tactics coexist within ownerships classes. Our also emphasize importance decisions as central building robust resilient landscapes.

Language: Английский

Evaluating climate change impacts on ecosystem resources through the lens of climate analogs DOI Creative Commons
Nicholas A. Povak, Patricia N. Manley

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Jan. 4, 2024

As disturbances continue to increase in magnitude and severity under climate change, there is an urgency develop climate-informed management solutions resilience help sustain the supply of ecosystem services over long term. Towards this goal, we used analog modeling combined with logic-based conditions assessments quantify future resource stability (FRS) mid-century climate. Analog models were developed for nine projections 1 km cells across California. For each model, assessed at focal cell comparison top 100 locations using fuzzy logic. Model outputs provided a measure support proposition that given would be stable change. Raster six resources exhibited high degree spatial variability FRS was largely driven by biophysical gradients State, cross-correlation among suggested similarities responses Overall, about one-third State low indicating lack potential losses time. Areas most vulnerable change occurred lower elevations and/or warmer winter summer environments, whereas higher elevation, or mid-elevations summers cooler winters. The approach offered replicable methodology assess large regions multiple, diverse resources. can readily integrated into decision systems guide strategic investments.

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Advancing forest carbon projections requires improved convergence between ecological and economic models DOI Creative Commons
Madisen Fuller, Manaswini Ganjam, Justin S. Baker

et al.

Carbon Balance and Management, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 20(1)

Published: Jan. 10, 2025

Forests have the potential to contribute significantly global climate policy efforts through enhanced carbon sequestration and storage in terrestrial systems wood products. Projections models simulate changes future forest fluxes under different environmental, economic, conditions can inform landowners policymakers on how best utilize forests for mitigating change. However, modeling frameworks are often developed applied a highly disciplinary manner, e.g., with ecological economic communities typically operating silos or soft model linkages input–output parametric relationships. Recent divides between research confound guidance levers increase sinks enhance ecosystem resilience This paper reviews summarizes expansive literature within disciplines, discusses benefits limitations of commonly used models, proposes convergence approach better integrating frameworks. More specifically, we highlight critical feedback loops that exist when operate independently discuss more integrated approach. We then describe an iterative involves sharing methodology, perspectives, data regimented types. An reduce bias by exploiting merging their relative strengths.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Restoring Historic Forest Disturbance Frequency Would Partially Mitigate Droughts in the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains DOI Creative Commons
Elijah N. Boardman, Zhuoran Duan, Mark S. Wigmosta

et al.

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 61(4)

Published: April 1, 2025

Abstract Forest thinning and prescribed fire are expected to improve the climate resilience water security of forests in western U.S., but few studies have directly modeled hydrological effects multi‐decadal landscape‐scale forest disturbance. By updating a distributed process‐based model (DHSVM) with vegetation maps from ecosystem (LANDIS‐II), we simulate resource impacts management scenarios targeting partial or full restoration pre‐colonial disturbance return interval central Sierra Nevada mountains. In fully restored regime that includes fire, thinning, insect mortality, reservoir inflow increases by 4%–9% total 8%–14% dry years. At sub‐watershed scales (10–100 km 2 ), dense can increase streamflow >20% thinner forest, increased understory transpiration compensates for decreased overstory transpiration. Consequentially, 73% gains attributable rain snow interception loss. Thinner headwater peak flows, reservoir‐scale flows almost exclusively influenced climate. Uncertainty future precipitation causes high uncertainty yield, additional yield is about five times less sensitive annual uncertainty. This decoupling response makes especially valuable supply during Our study confidence benefits restoring historic frequencies mountains, our modeling framework widely applicable other forested mountain landscapes.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Wildfire management decisions outweigh mechanical treatment as the keystone to forest landscape adaptation DOI Creative Commons
Tucker J. Furniss, Nicholas A. Povak, Paul F. Hessburg

et al.

Fire Ecology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 20(1)

Published: Dec. 18, 2024

Abstract Background Modern land management faces unprecedented uncertainty regarding future climates, novel disturbance regimes, and unanticipated ecological feedbacks. Mitigating this requires a cohesive landscape strategy that utilizes multiple methods to optimize benefits while hedging risks amidst uncertain futures. We used process-based simulation model (LANDIS-II) forecast forest management, growth, climate effects, wildfire dynamics, we distilled results using decision support tool allowing us examine tradeoffs between alternative strategies. developed plausible scenarios based on factorial combinations of restoration-oriented thinning prescriptions, prescribed fire, wildland fire use. Results were assessed continuously for 100-year period, which provided unique assessment among seven primary topics representing social , economic aspects resilience. Projected climatic changes had substantial impact modeled activity. In the Wildfire Only scenario (no treatments, but including active change), observed an upwards inflection point in area burned around mid-century (2060) detrimental impacts total carbon storage. While simulated mechanical treatments (~ 3% per year) reduced incidence high-severity it did not eliminate completely. Scenarios involving use resulted greater reductions more linear trend cumulative burned. Mechanical beneficial subtopics under topic given their positive financial return investment, better subtopics, primarily due reduction fire. Benefits mixed, reflecting inevitability landscapes rely diverse countervailing ecosystem services. Conclusions This study provides evidence optimal will involve mix passive strategies, different tactics coexist within ownerships classes. Our also emphasize importance decisions as central building robust resilient landscapes.

Language: Английский

Citations

0