Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(11), P. 973 - 981

Published: Oct. 21, 2021

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global animal biomass and unevenly distributed fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite ecosystem models from the Fisheries Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs Phase 6 Coupled (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, new ensemble simulations show a greater decline mean under both strong-mitigation high-emissions scenarios due elevated warming, despite uncertainty net primary production scenario. Regional shifts direction changes highlight continued urgent need reduce responses help support adaptation planning.

Language: Английский

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A database of mapped global fishing activity 1950–2017

Scientific Data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Jan. 8, 2024

Abstract A new database on historical country-level fishing fleet capacity and effort is described, derived from a range of publicly available sources that were harmonized, converted to effort, mapped 30-min spatial cells. The resulting data comparable with widely used but more temporally-limited satellite-sourced Automatic Identification System (AIS) datasets for large vessels, while also documenting important smaller fleets artisanal segments. It ranges 1950 2017, includes information number engine power, gross tonnage, nominal categorized by vessel length, gear type targeted functional groups. can be aggregated Large Marine Ecosystem, region and/or country scales provides temporally spatially explicit source studies aimed at understanding the implications long-term changes in activity global ocean.

Language: Английский

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Addressing the cumulative impacts of multiple human pressures in marine systems, for the sustainable use of the seas

Frontiers in Ocean Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 1

Published: Jan. 4, 2024

Human activities at sea have increased, causing subsequent degradation of ocean health and affecting ecosystem services societal goods benefits. Climate change further exacerbates the cumulative effects these their associated pressures. Hence, effective management multiple is imperative to ensure sustainable use ocean. In response challenges, we developed a comprehensive conceptual framework model within an ecosystem-based approach. This encompasses versatile toolbox designed assess pressures environmental status under European Marine Strategy Framework Directive, in compliance with Birds Habitats Directives requirements need secure maintenance provision Although examples current discussion, consider that there are similar challenges many seas worldwide so recommendations here widely applicable. Our aim facilitate validation, harmonization, demonstration this across regional several countries, different scales, from local regional, including overseas territories. approach aims foster comparability assessments. We anticipate proposed methodologies will serve as foundational benchmark against which progress can be assessed line expectations policy requirements. Additionally, work prepares groundwork for forthcoming evaluation suitability, robustness, applicability solutions tools, thereby assisting managers achieving Good Environmental Status (GES), both wider global contexts, address common worldwide.

Language: Английский

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Disentangling diverse responses to climate change among global marine ecosystem models

Progress In Oceanography, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 198, P. 102659 - 102659

Published: Aug. 9, 2021

Climate change is warming the ocean and impacting lower trophic level (LTL) organisms. Marine ecosystem models can provide estimates of how these changes will propagate to larger animals impact societal services such as fisheries, but at present vary widely. A better understanding what drives this inter-model variation improve our ability project fisheries other into future, while also helping identify uncertainties in process understanding. Here, we explore mechanisms that underlie diversity responses temperature LTLs eight global marine from Fisheries Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP). Temperature LTL impacts on total consumer biomass structure (defined relative small large organism biomass) were isolated using a comparative experimental protocol. Total model varied between −35% +3% response warming, -17% +15% changes. There was little consensus about spatial redistribution or balance organisms (ecosystem structure) an depending choice forcing terms. Overall, climate are well approximated by sum impacts, indicating absence nonlinear interaction models' drivers. Our results highlight lack theoretical clarity represent fundamental ecological mechanisms, most importantly scale individual level, need understand two-way coupling consumers. We finish identifying future research needs strengthen modelling projections impacts.

Language: Английский

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The role of Mg2+ in inhibiting CaCO3 precipitation from seawater

Marine Chemistry, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 237, P. 104036 - 104036

Published: Oct. 6, 2021

Language: Английский

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Making spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling better – A perspective

Environmental Modelling & Software, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 145, P. 105209 - 105209

Published: Sept. 30, 2021

Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) provide a deeper understanding of marine ecosystem dynamics. The United Nations Decade Ocean Science for Sustainable Development has highlighted the need to deploy these complex mechanistic spatial-temporal models engage policy makers and society into dialogues towards sustainably managed oceans. From our shared perspective, MEMs remain underutilized because they still lack formal validation, calibration, uncertainty quantifications that undermines their credibility uptake in arenas. We explore why shortcomings exist how enable global modelling community increase MEMs' usefulness. identify clear gap between proposed solutions assess model skills, uncertainty, confidence actual systematic deployment. attribute this an underlying factor literature largely ignores: technical issues. conclude by proposing conceptual solution is cost-effective, scalable simple, already complicated enough.

Language: Английский

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Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: July 5, 2022

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys 3,008 households intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs conduct a sub-national analysis agriculture 72 coastal across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Tanzania). Our study reveals three findings: First, overall losses higher than Second, while most locations (> 2/3) experience both simultaneously, mitigation could reduce proportion places facing that double burden. Third, more likely with lower status.

Language: Английский

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A regime shift in the Southeast Greenland marine ecosystem

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 29(3), P. 668 - 685

Published: Nov. 21, 2022

Two major oceanographic changes have recently propagated through several trophic levels in coastal areas of Southeast Greenland (SEG). Firstly, the amount drift-ice exported from Fram Strait and transported with East Current (EGC) has decreased significantly over past two decades, a main tipping element (summer sea ice) virtually disappeared since 2003 leading to regime shift ecological conditions region. The following 20-year period low or no ice is unique 200-year history observations region, also obvious volume export after 2013. In same period, temperature EGC south 73.5 N increased (>2°C) 1980. Secondly, warm Irminger Current, which advects warm, saline Atlantic Water into become warmer 1990. lack pack summer together warming ocean generated cascading effects on ecosystem SEG that are manifested changed fish fauna an influx boreal species subarctic capelin further north. At higher there been increase abundance cetaceans (humpback, fin, killer, pilot whales dolphins) either new this area occur historically large numbers. It estimated cetacean responsible for annual predation level 700,000 tons fish. addition, krill at >1,500,000 mainly consumed by fin whales. Simultaneously, reduction catches narwhals walruses it suggested these impacted habitat changes.

Language: Английский

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Exploring multiple stressor effects with Ecopath, Ecosim, and Ecospace: Research designs, modeling techniques, and future directions

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 869, P. 161719 - 161719

Published: Jan. 21, 2023

Understanding the cumulative effects of multiple stressors is a research priority in environmental science. Ecological models are key component tackling this challenge because they can simulate interactions between components an ecosystem. Here, we ask, how has popular modeling platform Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) been used to model human impacts related climate change, land and sea use, pollution, invasive species? We conducted literature review encompassing 166 studies covering other than fishing mostly aquatic ecosystems. The most modeled were physical change (60 studies), species introductions (22), habitat loss (21), eutrophication (20), using range techniques. Despite comprehensive coverage, identified four gaps that must be filled harness potential EwE for studying stressor effects. First, only 12% investigated three or more stressors, focusing on single stressors. Furthermore, many one pathways through which each known affect Second, various methods have applied define response functions representing groups. These large effect simulated ecological changes, but best practices deriving them yet emerge. Third, dimensions - except fisheries rarely considered. Fourth, 3% statistical designs allow attribution ecosystem changes stressors' direct interactions, such as factorial (computational) experiments. None made full use possibilities arise when simulations repeated times controlled inputs. argue all feasibly by integrating advances subfields science computational statistics.

Language: Английский

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Detecting, attributing, and projecting global marine ecosystem and fisheries change: FishMIP 2.0

Authorea (Authorea), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 22, 2024

There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes risks to the services they provide people. The Fisheries Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established develop model ensembles projecting long-term impacts of climate change on fisheries marine ecosystems while informing policy at spatio-temporal scales relevant Inter-Sectoral Impact (ISIMIP) framework. While contributing FishMIP have improved over time, large uncertainties in projections remain, particularly coastal shelf seas where most world’s occur. Furthermore, previous impact mostly ignored fishing activity due a lack standardized historical scenario-based human forcing uneven capabilities dynamically across community. This, addition underrepresentation processes, has limited ability evaluate ensemble’s adequately capture states - crucial step building confidence projections. To address these issues, we developed two parallel simulation experiments (FishMIP 2.0) on: 1) evaluation detection 2) scenarios Key advances include forcing, captures oceanographic features not previously resolved, systematically test effects models. 2.0 key towards attribution framework regional global scales, enhanced relevance through increased ensemble

Language: Английский

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