Top predator status and trends: ecological implications, monitoring and mitigation strategies to promote ecosystem-based management

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: May 13, 2024

The conservation and management of marine ecosystems hinge on a comprehensive understanding the status trends top predators. This review delves into ecological significance predators, examining their roles in maintaining ecosystem stability functioning through an integrated analysis current scientific literature. We first assess efficacy various monitoring methods, ranging from traditional field observations to cutting-edge technologies like satellite tracking environmental DNA (eDNA) evaluating strengths limitations terms accuracy, spatial coverage, cost-effectiveness, providing resource managers with essential insights for informed decision-making. Then, by synthesizing data diverse ecosystems, this study offers overview affecting predator populations worldwide. explore multifaceted impacts human activities, climate change, habitat degradation abundance distribution these key species. In doing so, we shed light broader implications declining populations, such as trophic cascades altered community structures. Following thorough assessment successful strategies reversing decline compilation recommendations is presented, encompassing effective governance interventions. A crucial aspect ecosystem-based implementation robust strategies. Mitigation measures are imperative reverse adverse present array mitigation options based case studies. These include establishment protected areas, enforcement fisheries regulations, promotion sustainable fishing practices. deepen synergies between potential mitigate human-induced stressors safeguard pivotal role structure function. By predators’ significance, analyzing population trends, discussing techniques, outlining strategies, provide researchers, policymakers, stakeholders engaged fostering approaches. conclude that integrating frameworks will be both predators environment future generations.

Language: Английский

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Making Ecosystem Modeling Operational–A Novel Distributed Execution Framework to Systematically Explore Ecological Responses to Divergent Climate Trajectories

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(3)

Published: March 1, 2024

Abstract Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) are increasingly driven by Earth System (ESMs) to better understand marine ecosystem dynamics, and analyze the effects of alternative management efforts for ecosystems under potential scenarios climate change. However, policy commercial activities typically occur on seasonal‐to‐decadal time scales, a span widely used in global modeling community but where skill level assessments MEMs their infancy. This is mostly due technical hurdles that prevent MEM from performing large ensemble simulations with which undergo systematic assessments. Here, we developed novel distributed execution framework constructed low‐tech freely available technologies enable analysis linked ESM/MEM prediction ensembles. We apply this scale, assess how retrospective forecast uncertainty an initialized decadal ESM predictions affects mechanistic spatiotemporal explicit trophodynamic MEM. Our results indicate internal variability has relatively low impact comparison broad assumptions related reconstructed fisheries. also observe sensitive specificities. case study warrants further explorations disentangle impacts change, fisheries scenarios, ecological hypotheses, variability. Most importantly, our demonstrates simple free empower any group fundamental capabilities operationalize modeling.

Language: Английский

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Global Marine Ecosystem Response to a Strong AMOC Weakening Under Low and High Future Emission Scenarios

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Abstract Marine ecosystems provide essential services to the Earth System and society. These are threatened by anthropogenic activities climate change. Climate change increases risk of passing tipping points; for example, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) might tip under future global warming leading additional changes in system. Here, we look at effect an AMOC weakening on marine forcing Community Model v2 (CESM2) with low (SSP1‐2.6) high (SSP5‐8.5) emission scenarios from 2015 2100. An freshwater flux is added North induce extra AMOC. In CESM2, has a large impact phytoplankton biomass temperature fields through various mechanisms that supply nutrients surface ocean. We drive ecosystem model, EcoOcean, CESM2. see negative impacts Total Biomass (TSB), which larger trophic level organisms. On top change, TSB decreases −3.78 −2.03 SSP1‐2.6 SSP5‐8.5, respectively due weakening. However, regionally individual groups, decrease can be as −30, showing very detrimental local ecosystems. results show will increased threat if weakens put stresses socio‐economic systems dependent biodiversity food income source.

Language: Английский

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SOS small pelagics: A safe operating space for small pelagic fish in the western Mediterranean Sea

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 756, P. 144002 - 144002

Published: Nov. 23, 2020

Language: Английский

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Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability across the distribution range of a temperate small pelagic fish under different scenarios of climate change

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 804, P. 150167 - 150167

Published: Sept. 8, 2021

Climate change often leads to shifts in the distribution of small pelagic fish, likely by changing match-mismatch dynamics between these sensitive species within their environmental optima. Using present-day habitat suitability, we projected how different scenarios climate (IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) may alter large scale European sardine Sardina pilchardus (a model species) 2050 2100. We evaluated variability species-specific optima allowing a comparison future scenarios. Regardless scenario, sea surface temperature salinity interaction current velocity distance nearest coast were main descriptors responsible for effects on sardine's distribution. Present-day potential "hotspots" neritic zones (<250 km) with water currents <0.4 m s-1, where SST was 10 22 °C SSS > 20 (PSU), average. Most among climatic habitats moderate low suitability. By end this century, suitability increase Canary Islands, Iberian Peninsula, central North Sea, northern Mediterranean, eastern Black Sea decrease Atlantic African coast, southwest English Channel, Western U.K. A gradual poleward-eastward shift also This most pronounced 2100 under RCP 8.5. In that sardines had 9.6% range expansion which included waters along entire Norway up into White Sea. As is mediated synergic fitness, it critical apply models robust underlying species-habitat data integrate knowledge full processes shaping productivity

Language: Английский

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Advances in spatial‐temporal coastal and marine ecosystem modeling using Ecospace

Elsevier eBooks, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 122 - 169

Published: June 16, 2023

Language: Английский

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Evaluating red tide effects on the West Florida Shelf using a spatiotemporal ecosystem modeling framework

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Feb. 13, 2023

Abstract The West Florida Shelf (WFS), located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, fosters high species richness and supports highly valuable fisheries. However, red tide events occur regularly that can impact fisheries resources as well ecosystem state, functioning, derived services. Therefore, it is important to evaluate quantify spatiotemporal impacts tides improve population assessments, mitigate potential negative effects through management, better understand disturbances support an ecosystem-based management framework. To model on marine community, we used Ecospace, module modeling framework Ecopath with Ecosim. inclusion both lethal sublethal response functions a comprehensive calibration procedure allowed systematically increased robustness applicability. Our results suggest severe have occurred WFS at ecosystem, levels terms biomass, catch, productivity. Sublethal indirect food-web triggered compensatory responses such avoidance behavior release from predation and/or competition.. This study represents step forward operationalize models for purposes may increase ability managers respond more effectively be proactive episodic mortality events, those caused by tides.

Language: Английский

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Trophic amplification: A model intercomparison of climate driven changes in marine food webs

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 18(8), P. e0287570 - e0287570

Published: Aug. 23, 2023

Marine animal biomass is expected to decrease in the 21st century due climate driven changes ocean environmental conditions. Previous studies suggest that magnitude of decline primary production on apex predators could be amplified through trophodynamics marine food webs, leading larger decreases relative production, a mechanism called trophic amplification. We compared producer and consumer or global assess extent used simulations from nine ecosystem models (MEMs) Fisheries Ecosystem Models Intercomparison Project forced by two Earth System under high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) scenario no fishing. Globally, total projected 16.7 ± 9.5% more than net (NPP) 2090-2099 1995-2014, with substantial variations among MEMs regions. Total almost everywhere (80% world's oceans) model ensemble. In 40% oceans, was NPP. Additionally, another 36% oceans even as NPP increases. By analysing response within webs available MEMs, we found parameters structures contributed complex responses consistent amplification impacts higher levels. Our study provides additional insights into ecological mechanisms will impact ecosystems, thereby informing development.

Language: Английский

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Seasonal resilience of temperate estuarine fish in response to climate change

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 158, P. 111518 - 111518

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

To date, the intricacies and efficacy of how periodic seasonal environmental fluctuations affect fish populations in biogeography context profound climate change remain to be elucidated. Collected monitoring data on resources temperate estuary provide an excellent opportunity assess effects functional assemblages under change. We first developed a framework for predicting habitat suitability different scenarios (SSP1-2.6 SSP5-8.5) 12 Yangtze by examining affinities estuarine fishes. then summarized multidimensional responses (HSRs) discussed possible drivers mechanisms underlying these changes. The results suggest that acidity may decline future as warms, endangering ecosystem many species depend on. Prospective have impact population HSRs through redistribution, area changes, centroid migration suitable habitats; nevertheless, affinity factors limited distinguishing patterns response spring. Fish (5 populations) (11 assemblages) exhibit robust adaptations or non-adaptations when seasons change, given their area. Furthermore, projections indicate majority centroids responses, migrating northeast spring southeast autumn. By decentralizing risk scales, resilience several (5/12) (11/16) is revealed time. Efforts mitigate risks safeguard should take forecasts indicative information into account.

Language: Английский

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Advancing bioenergetics-based modeling to improve climate change projections of marine ecosystems

Marine Ecology Progress Series, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 732, P. 193 - 221

Published: Jan. 31, 2024

Climate change has rapidly altered marine ecosystems and is expected to continue push systems species beyond historical baselines into novel conditions. Projecting responses of organisms populations these environmental conditions often requires extrapolations observed conditions, challenging the predictive limits statistical modeling capabilities. Bioenergetics provides mechanistic basis for projecting climate effects on living resources in a long history development, been applied widely fish other taxa. We provide our perspective 4 opportunities that will advance ability bioenergetics-based models depict changes productivity distribution fishes organisms, leading more robust projections impacts. These are (1) improved depiction bioenergetics processes derive realistic individual-level response(s) complex (2) innovations scaling project at population food web levels, (3) coupling between spatial dynamics better represent local- regional-scale differences distributions (4) model validation ensure next generation can be used with known sufficient confidence. Our focus specific enable critical advancements position community make accurate individuals, populations, webs, ecosystems.

Language: Английский

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