Future distribution of demersal species in a warming Mediterranean sub-basin

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: May 22, 2024

Predicting range shifts of marine species under different CO2 emission scenarios is paramount importance to understand spatial potential changes in a context climate change and ensure appropriate management, particular areas where resources are critical fisheries. Important tools which use environmental variables infer limits habitat suitability the distribution models or SDMs. In this work, we develop an ensemble model (e-SDM) assess past, present future distributions Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 nine demersal hotspot for their two life stages (adult juvenile) Adriatic Western Ionian Seas four time windows (1999-2003, 2014-2018, 2031-2035 2046-2050). The e-SDM has been developed using three (and sub-models), i.e. (i) generalized additive (GAM), (ii) linear mixed (GLMM), (iii) gradient boosting machine (GBM), through combination density data terms numbers individuals km 2 variables. Then, have determined aggregation hotspots distributions. Finally, gains losses (i.e. occupation area) scenario as new stages. results show that densities some key commercial species, such Merluccius merluccius (European hake), Mullus barbatus (red mullet), Lophius budegassa (anglerfish) will be shifting northwards.

Language: Английский

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Identifying priority areas for spatial management of mixed fisheries using ensemble of multi‐species distribution models

Fish and Fisheries, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 25(2), P. 187 - 204

Published: Nov. 15, 2023

Abstract Spatial fisheries management is widely used to reduce overfishing, rebuild stocks, and protect biodiversity. However, the effectiveness optimization of spatial measures depend on accurately identifying ecologically meaningful areas, which can be difficult in mixed fisheries. To apply a method generally range target species, we developed an ensemble species distribution models (e‐SDM) that combines general additive models, generalized linear random forest, gradient‐boosting machine methods training testing protocol. The e‐SDM was integrate density indices from two scientific bottom trawl surveys with geopositional data, relevant oceanographic variables three‐dimensional physical‐biogeochemical operational model, fishing effort vessel monitoring system. determined best distributions for juveniles adults are determine hot spots aggregation based single or multiple species. We applied juvenile adult stages 10 marine demersal representing 60% total landings central areas Mediterranean Sea. Using results, grounds potentially more selective were identified each group otter beam results confirm ecological appropriateness existing fishery restriction support identification locations new measures.

Language: Английский

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Harmful Ostreopsis cf. ovata blooms could extend in time span with climate change in the Western Mediterranean Sea

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 947, P. 174726 - 174726

Published: July 11, 2024

Fast environmental changes and high coastal human pressures impacts threaten the Mediterranean Sea. Over last decade, recurrent blooms of harmful dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. ovata have been recorded in many beaches. These microalgae produce toxins that affect marine organisms health. Understanding conditions influence appearance magnitude O. blooms, as well how climate change will modify its future distribution dynamics, is crucial for predicting managing their effects. This study investigates whether spatio-temporal this microalga frequency could be altered scenarios Western basin. For first time, an ecological habitat model (EHM) forced by physico-chemical simulations at high-resolution, under strong greenhouse gas emission trajectory (RCP8.5). It allows to characterize may respond projected shift over a wide spatial scale, plausible future. Before being applied EHM, are further refined using statistical adaptation method (Cumulative Distribution Function transform) improve predictions robustness. Temperature (optimum 23-26 °C), salinity (>38 psu) inorganic nutrient concentrations (nitrate >0.25 mmol N·m

Language: Английский

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Modeling the spatial distribution and abundance of deep‐water red shrimps in the Mediterranean Sea: a machine learning approach

Fisheries Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 281, P. 107257 - 107257

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Reconstruction of the three-dimensional dissolved oxygen and its spatio-temporal variations in the Mediterranean Sea using machine learning

Journal of Environmental Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Cetacean feeding modelling using machine learning: A case study of the Central-Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Ecological Informatics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 103066 - 103066

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Glider observations in the Western Mediterranean Sea: their assimilation and impact assessment using four analysis and forecasting systems

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 12

Published: Feb. 20, 2025

We present an impact assessment of temperature and salinity glider observations on physical analysis forecasting systems operating in the Western Mediterranean Sea through one-year-long coordinated experiments. A unique set including data from several endurance lines provided by different institutions is assimilated three systems. Results are compared against assimilation-free run assimilative-run that with each systems’ default configuration. Moreover, additional biogeochemical system forced two runs without assimilation observations. First all, we demonstrate has overall positive state estimation Sea, independently employed pre-processing approach used to ingest measurements. Secondly, show it helps improve representation mesoscale structures, particular location size intense anticyclonic eddy observed Balearic Sea. Thirdly, geostrophic currents transport Winter Intermediate Water Ibiza Channel also improved. Finally, adjustment mixing after translated a better estimate chlorophyll distribution upper layer system. Leading same order magnitude improvement systems, this intercomparison exercise provides robustness obtained estimates. It allows us identify relative strengths weaknesses these which useful future ways improvement. Overall, study demonstrates value repeated collected along for regional ocean prediction.

Language: Английский

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Machine learning unveils large-scale impact of Posidonia oceanica on Mediterranean Sea water

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 968, P. 178802 - 178802

Published: Feb. 22, 2025

Language: Английский

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Idiosyncratic patterns of Chlorophyll-a anomalies in response to marine heatwaves in the Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea) over the last two decades

Marine Environmental Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 107144 - 107144

Published: April 1, 2025

In the open ocean, marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been associated to a decline of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration in tropical and temperate areas while, at higher latitudes, they seem enhance phytoplankton productivity. Currently, uncertainties remain on outcomes MHWs primary production coastal heterogenous regions. We analyzed long-term modeled satellite-derived data sea surface temperature Chl-a Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea), semi-enclosed basin where open-sea environmental conditions co-occur, explore responses MHWs. found that both low high anomalies were strictly dependent MHWs, although following direct or inverse relationships different areas, as consequence regional-scale heterogeneities nutrient availability, riverine inputs, circulation geomorphology. Along west coast shallow North Central Adriatic, frequency, duration intensity corresponded frequency peaks and/or increased anomalies, suggesting pronounced fluctuations with intense blooms alternating extremely events. Conversely, offshore deeper especially South inversely correlated indicating possible reduction biomass organic matter flow towards floor. Prolonged may therefore drive shifts ecosystem-wide effects pelagic areas. These multifaceted MHW-Chl-a interactions observed emphasize need for context-specific assessments environmentally complex regions develop management strategies addressing ecological socioeconomic issues arising from unrelenting increase anomalies.

Language: Английский

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Modeling the impacts of natural and human factors on the hatching success of the loggerhead sea turtle Caretta caretta along the coasts of Italy

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 20(4), P. e0320733 - e0320733

Published: April 9, 2025

Coastal biodiversity is globally threatened by climate change and human pressures, including habitat destruction, overfishing, eutrophication, pollution, which alter natural coastal ecosystem processes. Caretta caretta , hereafter referred to as loggerhead sea turtle, listed “Vulnerable” at global level “Least Concern” in the Mediterranean Sea International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). This species only turtle nesting along Italian coasts, making it crucial understand factors affecting its reproductive success effective conservation strategies. However, key aspects ecology life cycle waters, such spatial distribution, site selection, influencing outcomes migratory movements, remain unknown. study aimed identify turtle. Data from 237 nests between 2019 2023 across 14 regions were recovered, quality-checked, analyzed. A statistical model predicting success, represented hatching was developed, incorporating various environmental variables marine terrestrial spheres, with local pressures urbanization anthropization. These predictors related using a generalized linear (GLM) accounting zero-inflated data. The best models identified both variables, temperature extreme wave events, human-controlled factors, presence dunes urbanization, success. anthropization beachfront disturbances particularly important. While activities can pose notable challenges their identification also offers opportunities enhancing through targeted management actions focused on mitigating pressures. Our findings highlight urgent need efforts address protect enhance possibly other species. Effective should focus human-induced Policymakers conservationists work together implement strategies that consider immediate impacts long-term effects change, ensuring sustainable ecosystems protection endangered like

Language: Английский

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