Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 211(2)
Published: March 1, 2025
ABSTRACT Climate change poses a global challenge to agricultural production and food security, especially in developing countries. In Northeast China, major grain‐producing region, the Maize–Soybean rotation is crucial for sustainable development. However, previous studies have mainly focused on single crops lacked attention soil health regional scale analysis. This study utilises APSIM model predict crop yields organic carbon (SOC) under two Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 8.5 (RCP4.5 RCP8.5) future climate scenarios different latitude regions of China. The result shows that has significant spatial temporal variations yield storage system. Compared baseline (1980–2010), maize from −11.6 42.8 kg 10a −1 (RCP4.5) 7.1 39.8 (RCP8.5), soybean vary −13.1 3.9 −16.2 −5.6 (RCP8.5). SOC increases slowly 0 20 cm decreases 40 cm, resulting decrease 21–334 ha 26–280 (RCP8.5) predicted storage. PLS‐PM results show precipitation negative impact accumulation, temperature rise RCP8.5 scenario positively correlated with yields, correlation stronger RCP8.5, which higher explanation changes. significantly affects stocks system Northeastern during extreme weather. Therefore, adaptation strategies should fit local needs, early‐maturing opt drought‐resistant, early varieties employ conservation tillage water‐saving methods, while medium late‐maturing areas select late varieties, adjust sowing enhance fertiliser efficiency.
Language: Английский