Global Ecology and Conservation, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 56, P. e03301 - e03301
Published: Nov. 13, 2024
Language: Английский
Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(1)
Published: Jan. 1, 2025
Estimating the impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change on species' spatial distributions is crucial for conservation. In this study, based 62 valid occurrence records Sphenomorphus incognitus 24 environmental factors (19 factors, 4 topographic 1 human activity factor), we utilized biomod2 combined model platform to predict suitable habitats S. under two current scenarios (Scenario 1: natural state; Scenario 2: interference state) future (SSP1-2.6 SSP5-8.5) in 2050s 2090s. The mean true skill statistic (TSS) area receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) suggested that ensemble yield more precise predictions than those individual models. Rainfall slope were identified as most important influencing distribution. Human disturbance has significantly reduced habitat by 44.13 × 104 km2, which a decrease 23.95% compared conditions. Spatial analysis revealed substantial fragmentation due activities. incorporation into exhibits divergent trends. Two distinct have been identified, each results reduction region 29.58 km2 an increase 27.04 respectively, year 2090. primary influence persists centroid shifted toward southeast SSP1-2.6 northwest SSP5-8.5. Our findings highlight significant impact emphasize need conservation measures. Future research should incorporate additional socioeconomic data further investigate effects species.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(3)
Published: March 1, 2025
ABSTRACT Bos gaurus , a globally vulnerable and protected priority species in Nepal, has experienced habitat loss fragmentation, poaching, diseases. Consequently, their population is isolated significantly Parsa National Park Chitwan Nepal. However, distribution even these areas limited to topographical features. This study focuses on suitability modeling of B. (PNP) utilizing the ensemble approach identify key ecogeographical climatic variables influencing suitable estimate around Park, After multicollinearity test, potential were integrated with ground presence points for modeling. The model revealed that distance from waterholes settlements, slope, bioclimatic highly influenced 's suitability. found only 31.29% (285.55 km 2 ) area as PNP. eastern part park (newly extended Halkhoriya Lake) south‐central section show . wildlife‐friendly infrastructure East–West Highway (that fragments park) within can facilitate movement among crucial patches. Future projections under SSP1‐2.6 climate scenario indicate gradual reduction habitat, indicating marginal impact change gaur area. These changes highlight vulnerability risk potentially leading declines. conservation strategies including maintaining water sources, restoring degraded habitats, particularly northern park, enhancing connectivity through wildlife corridors could ensure long‐term survival.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Animals, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(8), P. 1164 - 1164
Published: April 17, 2025
Climate change significantly impacts species distribution and survival, particularly for habitat specialists with limited dispersal abilities. This study investigates the current future of Tylonycteris pachypus, one world’s smallest bats specialized in bamboo-dwelling, using ensemble modeling approaches. Based on comprehensive occurrence data seven environmental variables, we developed an model Biomod2 platform, achieving high predictive accuracy (AUC: 0.981, TSS: 0.877). Three variables were identified as crucial determinants: minimum temperature coldest month (40.90% contribution), maximum warmest (38.38%), precipitation wettest quarter (11.09%). Currently, highly suitable habitats (291.893 × 104 km2) are concentrated three main regions: southern China Indochina Peninsula, Myanmar–Bangladesh–northeastern India, isolated areas southwest India Thailand. Under climate scenarios, SSP585, projected to decrease substantially (64.4% reduction by 2090s), a notable northward shift distribution. However, species’ ability, specific requirements, geographical barriers may constrain its capacity track these climate-driven changes. Our findings highlight vulnerability T. pachypus emphasize need targeted conservation strategies, including protecting climate-resilient maintaining bamboo forest corridors. provides framework monitoring conserving this under change, while considering unique ecological constraints limitations.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 13(7), P. 538 - 538
Published: July 17, 2024
The changing global climate has significantly impacted the spread of plant pests. cassava mealybug (Phenacoccus manihoti) is among most dangerous quarantine pests affecting cassavas worldwide, causing substantial losses in agricultural production and food security across several regions. Although China currently free mealybug, its proximity to affected countries extensive trade with these regions necessitate a detailed understanding pest's distribution pattern dynamic ecological niche changes. Using Biomod2 model, we selected two historical scenarios future (SSP1-2.6 SSP5-8.5) investigate patterns, potential habitats, centers, niches mealybugs China. Key environmental variables influencing were identified, including bio4, bio8, bio12, bio18, bio19. habitat mainly located provinces southern In future, suitable projected expand slightly under influence change, maintaining overall trend, but center areas will shift northward. Dynamic prediction results indicate for further expansion; however, may be unequal dissimilar invaded areas. predictions could serve as valuable reference early warning systems management strategies control introduction mealybugs.
Language: Английский
Citations
3
PeerJ, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12, P. e17497 - e17497
Published: May 31, 2024
Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) is a pressing issue worldwide but varies by species over time and place. One of the most prevalent forms HWC in mid-hills Nepal human-common-leopard (HLC). Leopard attacks, especially forested areas, can severely impact villagers their livestock. Information on HLC Gorkha district was scarce, thus making it an ideal location to identify high-risk zones landscape variables associated with such events. Registered cases were collected reviewed from Division Forest Office (DFO) during 2019-2021. Claims DFO records confirmed herders via eight focus group discussions. To enhance modeling success, researchers identified total 163 leopard attack locations livestock, ensuring minimum distance at least 100 meters between locations. Using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) considering 13 environmental variables, we mapped common risk zones. True Skill Statistics (TSS) area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) used evaluate validate Output. Furthermore, 10 replications, 1,000 iterations, 1000 background points employed modeling. The average AUC value for model, which 0.726 ± 0.021, revealed good accuracy. model performed well, as indicated TSS 0.61 0.03. Of research (27.92 km
Language: Английский
Citations
2
Heliyon, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 9(6), P. e16639 - e16639
Published: May 25, 2023
Over the last few years, intensifying human impact and deterioration of natural habitats have severely restricted global distribution large herbivores. Rucervus duvaucelii, commonly recognized as swamp deer, is a habitat-specialist endemic herbivore Indian Subcontinent. It classified vulnerable by IUCN listed in CITES Appendix I due to steep decline its population, which primarily anthropogenic causes. In Nepal, remaining population this species confined limited pocket areas within western Terai Arc Landscape. We explored potential habitat for deer across landscape using modelling through MaxEnt algorithm 173 field-verified presence points alongside six anthropogenic, four topographic, vegetation-related variables. Our study found that out total area (9207 km2), only 6% (590 km2) was suitable deer. Approximately 45% incorporated protected areas, with Shuklaphanta National Park harboring largest patch. The suitability discovered be positively associated low-elevation near water sources, far from settlements, implying need conserve sources minimize extension pressure their long-term conservation. Additionally, we suggest implications deer-centric conservation strategy, an emphasis on increasing connectivity corridors landscape-level trans-boundary initiatives between Nepal India. Moreover, considering herbivores' high vulnerability extinction, similar researche incorporating factors utmost importance produce vital information conserving other regionally globally endemic, habitat-specialized
Language: Английский
Citations
5
Species, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 24(74), P. 1 - 14
Published: Dec. 16, 2023
This research article presents a comprehensive analysis of the distribution patterns Rhododendron arboreum in Nepal, encompassing current and future projections.We employed an ensemble approach by combining eight selected models with AUC > 0.8.Resulting model demonstrated remarkable predictive accuracy, achieving value 0.97 TSS 0.77.Our unveiled that within total land area approximately 115,317.1 km2 were deemed unsuitable for arboreum, while 32,198.89km2 identified as suitable habitats.Future projections 2050 2070 under SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 scenarios showed significant changes habitat suitability.By 2050, SSP2-4.5,10,710.39km2 projected to be lost, 4,792.78km2 gained.Under SSP5-8.5, more loss 14,237.64km2 smaller gain 5,696.41km2 anticipated.In 2070, further losses both scenarios.A consistent upward movement elevation range was observed from period years 2070.These findings underscore urgency implementing proactive conservation measures safeguard face climate change.The provides valuable insights informing strategies emphasizes ecological significance this species Nepal.Considering shifts, our study contributes understanding dynamics supports effective planning.
Language: Английский
Citations
2
Biological Conservation, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 291, P. 110510 - 110510
Published: Feb. 27, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Global Ecology and Conservation, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 56, P. e03301 - e03301
Published: Nov. 13, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
0