Sensitivity Analysis and Performance Evaluation of the WRF Model in Forecasting an Extreme Rainfall Event in Itajubá, Southeast Brazil DOI Creative Commons
Denis William Garcia, Michelle Simões Reboita, Vanessa Silveira Barreto Carvalho

et al.

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(5), P. 548 - 548

Published: May 5, 2025

On 27 February 2023, the municipality of Itajubá in southeastern Brazil experienced a short-duration yet high-intensity rainfall event, causing significant socio-economic impacts. Hence, this study evaluates performance Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulating extreme event through set sensitivity numerical experiments. The control simulation followed operational configuration used daily by Center for Climate Studies Minas Gerais (CEPreMG). Additional experiments tested use different microphysics schemes (WSM3, WSM6, WDM6), initial boundary conditions (GFS, GDAS, ERA5), surface datasets (sea temperature soil moisture from ERA5 GDAS). model’s was evaluated comparing simulated variables with those various datasets. We primarily focused on representation spatial precipitation pattern, statistical metrics (bias, Pearson correlation, Kling–Gupta Efficiency), atmospheric instability indices (CAPE, K, TT). results showed that none simulations accurately captured amount distribution over region, likely due to complex topography convective nature studied event. However, WSM3 scheme SST data provided slightly better indices, although these configurations still underperformed intensity. All overestimated compared ERA5, itself may underestimate environments. Despite some limitations, valuable insights into behavior under Brazil—particularly environment within mountainous terrain. further evaluation across multiple events is recommended.

Language: Английский

Application of the Lasso regularisation technique in mitigating overfitting in air quality prediction models DOI Creative Commons
Abbas Pak,

Abdullah Kaviani Rad,

Mohammad Javad Nematollahi

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Jan. 2, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Sensitivity Analysis and Performance Evaluation of the WRF Model in Forecasting an Extreme Rainfall Event in Itajubá, Southeast Brazil DOI Creative Commons
Denis William Garcia, Michelle Simões Reboita, Vanessa Silveira Barreto Carvalho

et al.

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(5), P. 548 - 548

Published: May 5, 2025

On 27 February 2023, the municipality of Itajubá in southeastern Brazil experienced a short-duration yet high-intensity rainfall event, causing significant socio-economic impacts. Hence, this study evaluates performance Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulating extreme event through set sensitivity numerical experiments. The control simulation followed operational configuration used daily by Center for Climate Studies Minas Gerais (CEPreMG). Additional experiments tested use different microphysics schemes (WSM3, WSM6, WDM6), initial boundary conditions (GFS, GDAS, ERA5), surface datasets (sea temperature soil moisture from ERA5 GDAS). model’s was evaluated comparing simulated variables with those various datasets. We primarily focused on representation spatial precipitation pattern, statistical metrics (bias, Pearson correlation, Kling–Gupta Efficiency), atmospheric instability indices (CAPE, K, TT). results showed that none simulations accurately captured amount distribution over region, likely due to complex topography convective nature studied event. However, WSM3 scheme SST data provided slightly better indices, although these configurations still underperformed intensity. All overestimated compared ERA5, itself may underestimate environments. Despite some limitations, valuable insights into behavior under Brazil—particularly environment within mountainous terrain. further evaluation across multiple events is recommended.

Language: Английский

Citations

0