Increasing intensity and frequency of cold fronts contributed to Australia’s 2019–2020 Black Summer fire disaster DOI Creative Commons
Dejun Cai, Nerilie J. Abram, Jason J. Sharples

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 17(9), P. 094044 - 094044

Published: Sept. 1, 2022

Abstract Human-caused climate changes are increasing the risk of dangerous wildfires in many regions world. There multiple, compounding aspects change that fire risk, including large-scale driving hotter and drier conditions generally well observed predicted. However, synoptic-scale processes can exacerbate weather promote extreme pyroconvective events often not known historical observations poorly represented models, making it difficult to fully quantify anticipate changing risk. In this study, we statistically test association between cold front passage large fires southeast Australia during Australia’s 2019–2020 ‘Black Summer’ disaster, analyse daily gridded temperature data detect long-term intensity frequency strong fronts over Australia. We demonstrate significantly increased likelihood days entire Black Summer season. Additionally, were anomalously high Summer, is part a significant increase since 1950s. These fire-promoting activity expected imminently emerge above range experience across areas if current trends continue. Our results provide new insights into previously constrained contributor Australia, highlighting potential compound documented broad-scale intensifying future forest

Language: Английский

Long-unburnt habitat is critical for the conservation of threatened vertebrates across Australia DOI Creative Commons
Brenton von Takach, Chris J. Jolly, Kelly M. Dixon

et al.

Landscape Ecology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 37(6), P. 1469 - 1482

Published: March 9, 2022

Abstract Context Increases in fire frequency, intensity and extent are occurring globally. Relative to historical, Indigenous managed conditions, contemporary landscapes often characterised by younger age classes of vegetation a much smaller representation long-unburnt habitat. Objectives We argue that, conserve many threatened vertebrate species Australia, landscape management should emphasise the protection existing patches from fire, as well facilitate recruitment additional habitat, while maintaining historically relevant distributions more recently burned patches. Methods use range case studies ecosystem types illustrate three lines evidence: (1) that depend on mid- late-successional attributes; (2) disturbance habitat tends increase risk future collapse; (3) exhibit characteristics differ historical conditions require context-specific management. Conclusions It is crucial we adequately consider implications altered for activities aim vertebrates. Contemporary lack critical structural compositional components typical required persistence need shift towards strategic, objective-driven approaches identify protect habitats promote their enable recovery declining species.

Language: Английский

Citations

26

Aotearoa New Zealand's 21st‐Century Wildfire Climate DOI
Nathanael Melia, S. M. Dean, H. Grant Pearce

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(6)

Published: May 29, 2022

Abstract Wildfire is a highly variable natural phenomenon, yet despite this, climate change already making wildfire conditions measurably worse around the world; however, detailed knowledge about Aotearoa New Zealand's currently limited. This study blends weather observations with regional model projections to assess 21st‐century climate. We find that in 21st‐century, emergence of new—more severe will occur. Detailed analysis observed and simulated finds “very‐extreme” matching levels Australia's 2019/2020 “Black Summer” bushfires are possible regions formerly unaffected. While extent dependent on future emissions, frequency very‐extreme for areas affected can occur at any time independent projected changes. Our findings have significant implications many rural fire authorities, forest managers investors, mitigation afforestation programs.

Language: Английский

Citations

22

Incentives for self-evacuation: A panacea for bushfire fatalities in the Australian bushfire-prone areas DOI Creative Commons
Olufisayo Adedokun, Temitope Egbelakin, Thayaparan Gajendran

et al.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 104, P. 104361 - 104361

Published: March 7, 2024

Recurring bushfire disasters have shaped the Australian landscape for over 110 years. Despite this, there has been a rise in migration of residents into bushfire-prone areas, resulting increased fatalities. This study investigated incentives that could encourage householders to self-evacuate from areas during bushfires address this issue. An inductive approach was adopted, utilizing thirty semi-structured interviews with participants southeastern part New South Wales because region most severely affected 2019/2020 Black Summer bushfires. The found about 41% needed be aware existing incentives. In addition, we identified 13 potential early self-evacuation These include information and communication, adequacy resourcing rural fire service, education programmes, vegetation management, emergency accommodation, financial assistance, access roads availability, security property protection, affordable insurance coverage, alternative power supply, preparation return property, improved development approval procedures. findings provided valuable insights influence householders' decisions recommendations were based on these findings, suggesting future studies consider broader range geographical enhance generalizability findings. outcomes can reference policymakers agencies develop implement strategies bushfires, thus reducing

Language: Английский

Citations

5

Atmospheric dryness removes barriers to the development of large forest fires DOI Creative Commons
Jane G. Cawson, Luke Collins, Sean A. Parks

et al.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 350, P. 109990 - 109990

Published: March 30, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

5

Increasing intensity and frequency of cold fronts contributed to Australia’s 2019–2020 Black Summer fire disaster DOI Creative Commons
Dejun Cai, Nerilie J. Abram, Jason J. Sharples

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 17(9), P. 094044 - 094044

Published: Sept. 1, 2022

Abstract Human-caused climate changes are increasing the risk of dangerous wildfires in many regions world. There multiple, compounding aspects change that fire risk, including large-scale driving hotter and drier conditions generally well observed predicted. However, synoptic-scale processes can exacerbate weather promote extreme pyroconvective events often not known historical observations poorly represented models, making it difficult to fully quantify anticipate changing risk. In this study, we statistically test association between cold front passage large fires southeast Australia during Australia’s 2019–2020 ‘Black Summer’ disaster, analyse daily gridded temperature data detect long-term intensity frequency strong fronts over Australia. We demonstrate significantly increased likelihood days entire Black Summer season. Additionally, were anomalously high Summer, is part a significant increase since 1950s. These fire-promoting activity expected imminently emerge above range experience across areas if current trends continue. Our results provide new insights into previously constrained contributor Australia, highlighting potential compound documented broad-scale intensifying future forest

Language: Английский

Citations

17