State of Wildfires 2023–2024

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(8), P. 3601 - 3685

Published: Aug. 13, 2024

Abstract. Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society environment. However, our understanding global distribution extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying events from March 2023–February 2024 season. We assess causes, predictability, attribution these climate land use forecast future risks under different scenarios. During 2023–2024 season, 3.9×106 km2 burned slightly below average previous seasons, but carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totalling 2.4 Pg C. Global C record in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times average) reduced low African savannahs. Notable included record-breaking extent Canada, largest recorded wildfire European Union (Greece), drought-driven western Amazonia northern parts South America, deadly Hawaii (100 deaths) Chile (131 deaths). Over 232 000 people evacuated Canada alone, highlighting severity human impact. Our revealed that multiple drivers needed cause areas activity. In Greece, a combination high weather an abundance dry fuels probability fires, whereas area anomalies weaker regions lower fuel loads higher direct suppression, particularly Canada. Fire prediction showed mild anomalous signal 1 2 months advance, Greece had shorter predictability horizons. Attribution indicated modelled up 40 %, 18 50 due during respectively. Meanwhile, seasons magnitudes has significantly anthropogenic change, 2.9–3.6-fold increase likelihood 20.0–28.5-fold Amazonia. By end century, similar magnitude 2023 are projected occur 6.3–10.8 more frequently medium–high emission scenario (SSP370). represents first annual effort catalogue events, explain their occurrence, predict risks. consolidating state-of-the-art science delivering key insights relevant policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, managers, we aim enhance society's resilience promote advances preparedness, mitigation, adaptation. New datasets presented this work available https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11400539 (Jones et al., 2024) https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11420742 (Kelley 2024a).

Language: Английский

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Mapping forest canopy fuel parameters at European scale using spaceborne LiDAR and satellite data

Remote Sensing of Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 303, P. 114005 - 114005

Published: Jan. 30, 2024

Spatially explicit data on forest canopy fuel parameters provide critical information for wildfire propagation modelling, emission estimations and risk assessment. LiDAR observations enable accurate retrieval of the vertical structure vegetation, which makes them an excellent alternative characterising structures. In most cases, parameterisation has been based Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) observations, are costly best suited local research. Spaceborne acquisitions overcome limited spatiotemporal coverage airborne systems, as they can cover much wider geographical areas. However, do not continuous data, requiring spatial interpolation methods to obtain wall-to-wall information. We developed a two-step, easily replicable methodology estimate entire European territory, from Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) sensor, onboard International Space Station (ISS). First, we simulated GEDI pseudo-waveforms discrete ALS about plots. then used metrics derived mean height (Hm), (CC) base (CBH), national inventory reference. The RH80 metric had strongest correlation with Hm all types (r = 0.96–0.97, Bias −0.16-0.30 m, RMSE 1.53–2.52 rRMSE 13.23–19.75%). A strong was also observed between ALS-CC GEDI-CC 0.94, −0.02, 0.09, 16.26%), whereas weaker correlations were obtained CBH 0.46, 0 0.89 39.80%). second stage generate maps continent Europe at resolution 1 km using GEDI-based estimates within-fuel polygons covered by footprints. available some (mainly Northern latitudes, above 51.6°N). these estimated random regression models multispectral SAR imagery biophysical variables. Errors higher than direct retrievals, but still within range previous results 0.72–0.82, −0.18-0.29 3.63–4.18 m 28.43–30.66% Hm; r 0.82–0.91, 0, 0.07–0.09 10.65–14.42% CC; 0.62–0.75, 0.01–0.02 0.60–0.74 19.16–22.93% CBH). Uncertainty provided grid level, purpose considered individual errors each step in methodology. final outputs, publicly (https://doi.org/10.21950/KTALA8), estimation three modelling crown fire potential demonstrate capacity improve characterisation models.

Language: Английский

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Active wildfire detection via satellite imagery and machine learning: an empirical investigation of Australian wildfires

Natural Hazards, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 6, 2025

Language: Английский

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Integrated fire management as an adaptation and mitigation strategy to altered fire regimes

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: March 15, 2025

Abstract Altered fire regimes are a global challenge, increasingly exacerbated by climate change, which modifies weather and prolongs seasons. These changing conditions heighten the vulnerability of ecosystems human populations to impacts wildfires on environment, society, economy. The rapid pace these changes exposes significant gaps in knowledge, tools, technology, governance structures needed adopt informed, holistic approaches management that address both current future challenges. Integrated Fire Management is an approach combines prevention, response, recovery while integrating ecological, socio-economic, cultural factors into strategies. However, remains highly context-dependent, encompassing wide array practices with varying degrees ecological societal integration. This review explores as adaptation mitigation strategy for altered regimes. It provides overview progress challenges associated implementing across different regions worldwide. also proposes five core objectives outlines roadmap incremental steps advancing adapt ongoing regimes, thereby maximizing its potential benefit people nature.

Language: Английский

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Climate, vegetation, people: disentangling the controls of fire at different timescales

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 380(1924)

Published: April 1, 2025

Human activities have a major impact on fire regimes. that cause landscape fragmentation, such as creating roads and other infrastructure or converting areas to agriculture, tend restrict, rather than promote, fire. The human influence is complex, however, the of fragmentation regime depends climate vegetation conditions. Climate-induced changes in fuel loads also affect natural ways independent influence. Disentangling controls regimes challenging because multiple interactions between climate, vegetation, people fire, different timescales over which they operate. We explore these relationships, drawing statistical modelling analyses palaeoenvironmental, historical recent observations at regional global scales. show how relationships changed through time vary spatially function environmental biotic gradients. Specifically, we climate-driven been most important drivers changing least until Industrial Revolution. Statistical no discernible hunter–gatherer communities, even time-transgressive introduction agriculture during Neolithic had scale. post-industrial expansion was an fires, but since late 19th century, overwhelming humans has reduce progressive influencing ignitions. Model projections suggest reduction will be outweighed by climatically driven increases end 21st century. This article part theme issue ‘Novel under influences: impacts, ecosystem responses feedbacks’.

Language: Английский

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Mapping wildfire hazard, vulnerability, and risk to Canadian communities

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 101, P. 104221 - 104221

Published: Dec. 24, 2023

Large and intense wildfires are an integral part of many Canadian landscapes, playing a critical role in ecosystem dynamics. However, the recent catastrophic fire seasons have highlighted threat that can pose to human communities. Identifying areas at higher risk is therefore crucial order mitigate impacts on society. This study presents standardized method for nationwide wildfire assessment, focusing buildings populations. Using Burn-P3 simulation model, along with building footprint census data, we generated hazard, vulnerability, maps Canada's forested regions. Our findings demonstrate nuanced understanding when considering interaction between hazard physical vulnerability. Approximately 32.3% 6.3% land classified as High Very high risk, respectively. We estimate 111,519 units (5.8%) directly exposed 10,622 (0.6%) risk. Moreover, found approximately 283,200 people reside while 30,500 live Indigenous on-reserve communities particularly vulnerable impact. 18.9% living reserves fire, compared only 2.4% non-reserve population. The present offers information development national management policy provides new insights support implementation effective measures reduction.

Language: Английский

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A European-scale analysis reveals the complex roles of anthropogenic and climatic factors in driving the initiation of large wildfires

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 917, P. 170443 - 170443

Published: Jan. 29, 2024

Analysing wildfire initiation patterns and identifying their primary drivers is essential for the development of more efficient fire prevention strategies. However, such analyses have traditionally been conducted at local or national scales, hindering cross-border comparisons formulation broad-scale policy initiatives. In this study, we present an analysis spatial variability initiations across Europe, focusing specifically on moderate to large fires (> 100 ha), examining influence both human climatic factors areas. We estimated using machine learning algorithms, Random Forest (RF), covering majority European territory (referred as "ET scale"). The models were trained data extracted from a satellite burned area product, comprising occurring 2001 2019. developed six RF models: three considering all larger than ha, focused solely largest events 1000 ha). Models predictors separately, well types mixed together. found that demonstrated predictive capacity, with AUC values ranging 79 % 81 %; while based only variables had poor capacity (AUC 60 %). Feature importance analysis, Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), allowed us assess Territory. Aridity evapotranspiration strongest effect initiation. Among variables, population density aging considerable effects initiation, former strong in estimating fires, latter important role prediction very fires. Distance roads forest-agriculture interfaces also relevant some models. A better understanding main should help designing forest management strategies, particularly light growing climate change, it would affect severity areas risk. Factors be part comprehensive approach risk assessment, reduction adaption, contributing effective mitigation continent.

Language: Английский

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The fire weather in Europe: large-scale trends towards higher danger

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 19(8), P. 084017 - 084017

Published: July 16, 2024

Abstract The climate over Europe has been recorded to be hotter, drier, and more fire-prone the last decade than ever before, leading concerns about how change will alter fire weather in future. A typical measure estimate severity based on is Canadian index (FWI). In this study, we used high-resolution, bias-corrected model output (∼9 km) from six CMIP6 models four shared socio-economic pathway projections (SSPs) calculate consistent comparable daily FWI datasets for 1950 2080. Our study aims identify regional large-scale shifts its predictability time support adaptive planning. We show that irrespective of future SSP, become severe, but increase much stronger under high greenhouse gas emissions. This leads new areas being exposed severe weather, such as central rapidly warming mountainous areas. Already regions southern experience extreme conditions. conclude only low-emission SSP1-2.6 can prevent strong increases beyond 2050s. Fire surveillance management important, even seasons where they have not focus so far.

Language: Английский

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Mapping opportunities for the use of land management strategies to address fire risk in Europe

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 346, P. 118941 - 118941

Published: Sept. 15, 2023

Many parts of Europe face increasing challenges managing wildfires. Although wildfire is an integral part certain ecosystems, fires in many places are becoming larger and more intense, driven largely by climate change, land abandonment, changes fuel management with important socioeconomic, environmental, ecosystem services consequences for Europe. In order to envision a comprehensive fire risk mitigation strategy Europe, spatial assessment opportunities manage fuels at the landscape-scale needed. Our study explored suitability three strategies (LMS)-herbivory, mechanical removal, prescribed burn-which can create heterogenous fuelscapes, thereby reducing element risk. We created maps each LMS using adoption factors identified systematic literature review (n = 123). compared these areas historical occurrence as proxy prioritize key intervention. found that over quarter was suitable multiple within greater risk, creating concurrent synergistic use strategies. Options were limited southern where burn be uniquely viable amongst evaluated. Opportunities also restricted some high northern herbivory only LMS. findings take wide-view target decision making focused on However, other must taken into account successfully local scales, including socio-cultural appropriateness LMS, viability incentive schemes, possible trade-offs goals, such carbon storage biodiversity.

Language: Английский

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Soil smoldering in temperate forests: a neglected contributor to fire carbon emissions revealed by atmospheric mixing ratios

Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 22(1), P. 213 - 242

Published: Jan. 13, 2025

Abstract. Fire is regarded as an essential climate variable, emitting greenhouse gases in the combustion process. Current global assessments of fire emissions traditionally rely on coarse remotely sensed burned-area data, along with biome-specific completeness and emission factors (EFs). However, large uncertainties persist regarding burned areas, biomass affected, factors. Recent increases resolution have improved previous estimates areas aboveground while increasing information content used to derive factors, complemented by airborne sensors deployed tropics. To date, temperate forests, characterized a lower incidence stricter aerial surveillance restrictions near wildfires, received less attention. In this study, we leveraged distinctive season 2022, which impacted western European investigate monitored atmospheric tower network. We examined role soil smoldering responsible for higher carbon emissions, locally reported firefighters but not accounted budgets. assessed CO/CO2 ratio released major fires Mediterranean, Atlantic pine, forests France. Our findings revealed low modified efficiency (MCE) two regions, supporting assumption heavy combustion. This type was associated specific characteristics, such long-lasting thermal signals, affected ecosystems encompassing needle leaf species, peatlands, superficial lignite deposits soils. Thanks high-resolution data (approximately 10 m) tree biomass, organic matter (SOM), proposed revised framework consistent observed MCEs. that 6.15 Mt CO2 (±2.65) emitted, belowground stock accounting 51.75 % (±16.05). Additionally, calculated total 1.14 CO (±0.61), 84.85 (±3.75) originating from As result, 2022 France amounted 7.95 MtCO2-eq (±3.62). These values exceed 2-fold Global Assimilation System (GFAS) country, reaching 4.18 (CO CO2). Fires represent 1.97 (±0.89) country's annual footprint, corresponding reduction 30 forest sink year. Consequently, conclude current should be account forests. also recommend use mixing ratios effective monitoring system prolonged potential re-ignite following weeks.

Language: Английский

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