Prediction of population aging trend and analysis of influencing factors based on grey fractional-order and grey relational models: a case study of Jiangsu Province, China DOI Creative Commons
Xiaojun Guo, Ying Wu, Yueyue Wang

et al.

BMC Geriatrics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(1)

Published: March 25, 2025

With the rapid development of society, China is facing an increasingly serious problem population aging. This trend poses new challenges to labor force structure, public medical care construction and elderly services, forcing government make a series policy adjustments. Jiangsu Province, as region with prominent aging problems in China, has particularly significant phenomenon. Against backdrop Chinese government's active response aging, this study conducts in-depth analysis its influencing factors Province. Based on statistical data total Province from 2011 2023, employs grey fractional-order prediction model (FGM(1,1)) forecast coefficient over next decade. Additionally, relational (GRA) based panel was conducted thoroughly examine relevant The identified key such general budget expenditure, health technicians, urbanization rate, education level being highly correlated results indicate that projected continue increasing decade, degree becoming more pronounced. GRA reveals expenditures number technicians significantly influence process. suggests financial investment quantity quality play crucial roles shaping trend. In conjunction FGM(1,1) data, enhances comprehensive understanding issue insights derived herein offer support scientific foundation for both develop policies addressing Considering anticipated future trends it recommended revise fertility optimize increase finance security, promote systems. These measures aim mitigate posed by achieve sustainable economic social development.

Language: Английский

Prediction of population aging trend and analysis of influencing factors based on grey fractional-order and grey relational models: a case study of Jiangsu Province, China DOI Creative Commons
Xiaojun Guo, Ying Wu, Yueyue Wang

et al.

BMC Geriatrics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(1)

Published: March 25, 2025

With the rapid development of society, China is facing an increasingly serious problem population aging. This trend poses new challenges to labor force structure, public medical care construction and elderly services, forcing government make a series policy adjustments. Jiangsu Province, as region with prominent aging problems in China, has particularly significant phenomenon. Against backdrop Chinese government's active response aging, this study conducts in-depth analysis its influencing factors Province. Based on statistical data total Province from 2011 2023, employs grey fractional-order prediction model (FGM(1,1)) forecast coefficient over next decade. Additionally, relational (GRA) based panel was conducted thoroughly examine relevant The identified key such general budget expenditure, health technicians, urbanization rate, education level being highly correlated results indicate that projected continue increasing decade, degree becoming more pronounced. GRA reveals expenditures number technicians significantly influence process. suggests financial investment quantity quality play crucial roles shaping trend. In conjunction FGM(1,1) data, enhances comprehensive understanding issue insights derived herein offer support scientific foundation for both develop policies addressing Considering anticipated future trends it recommended revise fertility optimize increase finance security, promote systems. These measures aim mitigate posed by achieve sustainable economic social development.

Language: Английский

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