Unveiling the future: Wavelet- ARIMAX analysis of climate and diarrhea dynamics in Bangladesh’s Urban centers

BMC Public Health, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(1)

Published: Jan. 24, 2025

Diarrheal infections continue to be a major public health concern in Bangladesh, especially urban areas where population density and environmental variables increase dissemination risks. Identifying the intricate connections between weather diarrhea epidemics is critical for developing effective remedies. We deploy novel approach of Wavelet-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variable (WARIMAX) traditional Autoregressive (ARIMAX) technique forecast incidence by analyzing influence climate factors. Higher temperatures are associated greater diarrheal occurrences, demonstrating vulnerability fluctuations. The Wavelet-ARIMAX method, which uses wavelet analysis within ARIMAX structure, better at forecasting performance model fit than standard model. Based on climatic variables, can accurately predict occurrence, as indicated mean absolute error (MAE), root squared (RMSE), logarithmic (RMSLE). outcomes highlight necessity employing advanced time-series modeling tools such understand anticipate climate-health interactions. identify time-varying patterns climate-disease interactions, providing useful insights initiatives. results this research have implications climate-adaptive planning, emphasizing need focused actions reduce impact change illness burdens towns cities.

Language: Английский

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The impact of climate variability on diarrhea incidence in Surakarta City, Indonesia 2021-2022

BIO Web of Conferences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 155, P. 10002 - 10002

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Diarrhea is still a serious public health problem and an endemic disease in Indonesia, with the potential for outbreaks that frequently result mortality. According to 2018 Primary Health Research data, incidence of diarrhea Indonesia was 6.8% all ages 11% toddlers. one diseases associated climate variability. The goals this study analyze impact variability (air temperature humidity) on cases Surakarta City from 2021 2022. This use cross-sectional method. data used secondary Statistics Center. Pearson statistical test differences between variable. results showed air (p = 0.01 r 1,000) humidity have diarrhea. In conclusion, had positive correlation cases.

Language: Английский

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Impact of Climate Variability on Foodborne Diarrheal Disease: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Public health reviews, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 46

Published: Feb. 19, 2025

To determine the impacts of climate variability on foodborne diarrhoeal disease worldwide. This work was performed based PRISMA guideline. Articles were retrieved from PubMed, MEDLINE, Web Science, Scopus, DOAJ, and Google Scholar. The search made using Boolean logic operators, medical subject headings, main keywords related to diarrheal disease. STATA version 17 used perform an analysis. quality articles evaluated Joanna Briggs Institute appraisal tools. present study included 54 with estimates 103 findings. An increases in temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, rainfall, flooding associated 4% [RR: 1.04; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.05], 3% 1.03; 1.01, 1.06], 2% 1.02; 1.03], 1% 1.01; 1.00, 1.02], 42% 1.42; 1.26, 1.57] disease, respectively. There a significant association between variability, indicate need for building climate-resilient food safety system reduce identifier CRD42024532430.

Language: Английский

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The impact of climate change on child nutrition in Indonesia: a conceptual framework and scoping review of the available evidence

BMJ Paediatrics Open, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 9(1), P. e002980 - e002980

Published: March 1, 2025

Background Climate change is expected to significantly impact child nutrition, worsening global health inequities. Indonesia, a country highly vulnerable climate change, also faces substantial malnutrition challenges. However, comprehensive knowledge on change’s impacts nutrition in Indonesia limited. This study addresses this gap through scoping review of the scientific evidence effects Indonesia. Methods We developed conceptual framework based literature guide our systematic search, linking and its determinants Systematic searches were conducted English Indonesian Scopus, Web Science PubMed, supplemented by Google Scholar citation screening. included peer-reviewed, Scopus-indexed studies focused examining either direct or indirect nutrition. A narrative synthesis was performed, structured around outcomes identified framework: (1) nutrition-associated conditions, (2) diets disease, (3) social dynamics (4) food system shocks. Results From 3025 records, 134 met inclusion criteria. Studies multicountry including (23%, n=31), Indonesia-specific across multiple regions (26%, n=35) region-specific, mainly Java (22%, n=29), Sumatra (11%, n=14), Kalimantan (7%, n=9) Sulawesi n=9). Other under-represented (5%, n=7). Most used quantitative methods (87%, n=116). Few assessed links between nutritional (n=5), security dietary quality (n=7); more pathways such as disease (n=49), (n=18) disruptions (n=55). Conclusions Evidence suggests significant highlighting need for urgent action. Further localised that consider contextual factors, actions strengthening systems, are critical, especially most both malnutrition.

Language: Английский

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Nexus between health poverty and climatic variability in Pakistan: a geospatial analysis

Frontiers in Environmental Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: May 19, 2023

Studies investigating the interconnection of health poverty and climatic variability are rare in spatial perspectives. Given importance sustainable development goals 3, goal 10, 13, we explored whether geographic regions with diverse climate structure has a association poverty; disparities exist across districts Pakistan. We implied A-F methodology to estimate MHP index using PSLM survey, 2019–20. The variables were extracted from online NASA website. applied techniques Moran’s I, univariate bivariate LISA, address research questions. findings revealed that magnitude differs districts. Punjab was found be better-ff whereas Baluchistan highest poverty-stricken province. results indicated positive associations indicators their values neighbors, negative between indicators. Also, clusters outliers higher significant KP provinces. Government intervention policymaker’s prioritization needed towards health-related social indicators, mainly high districts, temperature low humidity precipitation rates, especially Baluchistan.

Language: Английский

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Associations between meteorological variation and hospitalisations for rotavirus infections in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Heliyon, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 10(7), P. e28574 - e28574

Published: March 26, 2024

Rotavirus (RoV) infections have emerged as a significant public health concern around the world. Understanding relationship between climatic conditions and hospitalisations due to RoV can help engage effective prevention strategies. This study aims investigate potential associations meteorological variability RoV-related in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Language: Английский

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Exploring the Association between Ambient Temperature and Daily Hospital Admissions for Diarrhea in Mopani District, Limpopo Province, South Africa

Healthcare, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(9), P. 1251 - 1251

Published: April 27, 2023

Diarrhea contributes significantly to global morbidity and mortality. There is evidence that diarrhea prevalence associated with ambient temperature. This study aimed determine if there was an association between temperature at a rural site in South Africa. Daily diarrheal hospital admissions (2007 2016) two large district hospitals Mopani district, Limpopo province were compared average daily apparent (Tapp, 'real-feel' combined temperature, relative humidity, wind speed). Linear regression threshold regression, age-stratified participants ≤5 years >5 old, considered changes by unit °C increase Tapp. ranges Tapp 2-42 -5-34 °C, respectively. For every 1 6% for individuals of all ages (95% CI: 0.04-0.08; p < 0.001) 4% older than 5 0.02-0.05; 0.001). A positive linear relationship children old not statistically significant -0.00-0.03; = 0.107). common however, more likely triggered factors other temperature/Tapp, while it increased old. We are limited lack data on confounders effect modifiers, thus, our findings exploratory. To fully quantify how affects admission counts diarrhea, future studies should include socio-economic-demographic as well WASH-related such personal hygiene practices access clean water.

Language: Английский

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Climate influence on Diarrhea Disease in Tropical Regions based on Systematic Literature Review

Agromet, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 37(2), P. 99 - 107

Published: Nov. 10, 2023

Diarrhea disease presents a significant public health concern due to its impact on mortality, and research showed that climate plays an important role diarrhea prevalence. However, effect of incidence was inconsistent among factors. Here, we investigated this inconsistency thorough systematic literature review. Our review encompassed the formulation questions, development search strategies, establishment inclusion/exclusion criteria for data extraction. We carried out extensive from peer-review databases including Scopus, Pubmed, Proquest articles published between January 2000 March 2023. found 74 studies focusing diseases influencing factors met our inclusive criteria. Climate affected were rainfall, temperature, humidity, seasonality. findings revealed positive association rainfall consistently observed. Other (temperature humidity) indicated correlation as well, although viral exhibited negative with temperature. Further, bacterial parasitic more prevalent in rainy season, whereas occurred frequently during dry season lower temperatures.

Language: Английский

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Prevalence and associated factors of human caliciviruses infection among patients with gastroenteritis in the Amhara National Regional State, Ethiopia

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 28, 2024

Abstract Background : Human caliciviruses are the leading cause of gastroenteritis among all age groups worldwide, with an increased burden in developing countries. As there is no surveillance, epidemiological data limited Ethiopia. Hence, this study aimed to investigate prevalence and associated factors human patients Amhara National Regional State, Methods Prospective cross-sectional was conducted from May 2021 November 2021. A total 550 participants symptoms were proportionately assigned four areas. Convenient sampling used select health facilities while systematically sampled. fecal sample collected analyzed a one-step real-time RT-PCR. Sociodemographic other variables gathered using pre-tested questionnaire by SPSS version 23. descriptive analysis performed. Logistic Regressions adjusted odds ratio (AOR) at 95%CI assess NoV infection. Results 519 out samples (94.4% response rate). The overall norovirus (NoV) 8.9% (46/519). positivity rates higher elderly (33.3%) under-5 children (12.5%). Both genogroup I II (GII) identified, GII being predominant, 82.6% (38/46). All experienced diarrhea, but only 20% reported history vomiting. Norovirus infection more prevalent respondents Debre Tabor (AOR = 3.8, (1.1-13)) Bahir Dar areas 3.5, (1.03-12)). Additionally, older adults (AOR; 7, 95% CI (1.9-27)) under 5 3.4, (2.7-13)) disproportionately affected compared adults. previous (CI1.4-8)) significant factor contributing infections. Besides, individuals high frequency diarrhea 16.3, 6.6-40), vomiting 3.2, 1.5-7) likely infected. Conclusions considerably predominance NoV-GII. rate extreme varied across To obtain comprehensive understanding virus`s epidemiology its genetic diversity further research warranted.

Language: Английский

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Prevalence and associated factors of norovirus infections among patients with diarrhea in the Amhara national regional state, Ethiopia

BMC Infectious Diseases, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 24(1)

Published: Sept. 27, 2024

Language: Английский

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