Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Potential Distribution of Pine Wood Nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) in China

Forests, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(7), P. 1253 - 1253

Published: July 18, 2024

Bursaphelenchus xylophilus is a pest that interferes with the health of forests and hinders development forestry industry, its spread influenced by changes in abiotic factors human activities. The potential distribution areas B. China under four shared-economic pathways were predicted using optimized MaxEnt model (version 3.4.3), combining data from variety environmental variables: (1) prediction natural variables current climate models; (2) + activities (3) future models (2050s 2070s). Meanwhile, whether niche has changed over time analyzed. results showed activities, precipitation driest month, annual precipitation, elevation had significant effects on xylophilus. In conditions, greatly reduced survival area xylophilus, suitable was mainly concentrated southwestern central regions China. Under influence change future, habitat will gradually to northeast. addition, ecological overlap analysis greater than 0.74. This study provides important information for understanding adaptation risk which can help guide decision making control forest protection.

Language: Английский

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Using ecological niches to determine potential habitat suitability for Psacothea hilaris (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) and its natural enemies in China under future climates

Journal of Economic Entomology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Nov. 9, 2024

Climate change impacts the distribution of pests and its natural enemies, prompting this study to investigate dynamics shifts in under current future climate conditions. The spatial pattern Psacothea hilaris (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) China was analyzed, MaxEnt model optimized predict potential geographic P. two enemies (Dastarcus helophoroides (Fairmaire) Bothrideridae) Dendrocopos major (Linnaeus) (Piciformes: Picidae)) China, further analyze key environmental factors affecting survival determine using D. as control hilaris. results showed that suitable ranges are expanding influence change, both have migrated higher latitudes. helophoroides, major, highly similar. It is noteworthy range completely covers This indicates can be employed biological agents manage populations. provides a theoretical framework empirical evidence for development early warning green strategies

Language: Английский

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Quantifying Potentially Suitable Geographical Habitat Changes in Chinese Caterpillar Fungus with Enhanced MaxEnt Model

Insects, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(3), P. 262 - 262

Published: March 3, 2025

Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (CCF) is a fungal–insect complex formed by the underground larvae of certain species in family Hepialidae parasitized Ophiocordyceps sinensis (Berk.) (G.H.Sung, J.M.Sung, Hywel-Jones & Spatafora). It precious herbal medicine with significant medicinal value. This study aimed to identify key environmental factors influencing distribution CCFs using MaxEnt model. First, model optimized ENMeval package, most suitable combinations feature classes and regularization parameters were selected. Second, 22 variables used construct models for O. sinensis, host insects, CCFs. Then, areas insects overlapped highly habitats where both coexist. Finally, these compared analyze differences their contributions formation CCF area. The results showed that elevation, bio18, bio09 primary distributions Considering present, 2050s, 2070s, all three entities large extent. When we superimposed high-suitability zones overlapping area was found be 56.87 × 104 km2, which accounted 5.92% China’s total land 64.06 accounting 6.67% findings this provide valuable insights into mechanisms behind combination forming

Language: Английский

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Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Rodent Species Habitats in the Ordos Desert Steppe, China

Animals, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(5), P. 721 - 721

Published: March 3, 2025

Climate change is driving the restructuring of global biological communities. As a species sensitive to climate change, studying response small rodents helpful indirectly understand changes in ecology and biodiversity certain region. Here, we use MaxEnt (maximum entropy) model predict distribution patterns, main influencing factors, range various Ordos desert steppe China under different scenarios future (2050s: average for 2041-2060). The results show that when parameters are FC = LQHPT, RM 4, optimal AUC 0.833. We found NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), Bio 12 (annual precipitation), TOC (total organic carbon) important factors affecting suitability rodent habitat At same time, were also species. selected 4 dominant analysis that, situation warming, high-suitability area Allactaga sibirica Phodopus roborovskii will decrease, while Meriones meridianus unguiculatus increase. Our research suggest local governments should take early preventive measures, strengthen protection, respond ecological challenges brought about by promptly.

Language: Английский

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Bursaphelenchus xylophilus Pest Report to support the ranking of EU candidate priority pests

EFSA Supporting Publications, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 22(3)

Published: March 1, 2025

Abstract In 2022, EFSA was mandated by the European Commission's Directorate‐General for Health and Food Safety (M‐2022‐00070) to provide technical assistance regarding list of Union quarantine pests qualifying as priority pests, specified in Article 6(2) Regulation (EU) 2016/2031 on protective measures against plant pests. As part Task C, conducted comprehensive expert knowledge elicitations candidate focusing lag period, rate expansion impact production (yield quality losses) environment. This report provides rationale dataset Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, delivered Joint Research Centre, feed into Impact Indicator Priority Pest (I2P2) model complete pest prioritisation ranking exercise.

Language: Английский

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Prediction of potential habitat of Verbena officinalis in China under climate change based on optimized MaxEnt model

Frontiers in Plant Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16

Published: March 19, 2025

Verbena officinalis is an important medicinal plant widely used in traditional Chinese medicine for the treatment of rheumatism, insomnia, and liver gallbladder diseases. Its resources primarily rely on wild populations, which are insufficient to meet increasing market demand. Furthermore, climate change exacerbates uncertainty its distribution range. This study employs optimized MaxEnt model predict potential V. under current future scenarios China. Based 445 effective occurrence records 90 environmental variables (covering climatic, soil, topographic factors), selected key influencing through correlation analysis variable contribution rates, parameters improve prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.934). Results showed that, conditions, total suitable habitat area 2.06 × 10 6 km 2 , accounting 21.39% China’s land area, mainly distributed central, eastern, southern The minimum temperature coldest month (bio_6, rate 72.8%) was identified as factor distribution, while November precipitation (prec_11) annual range (bio_7) also played roles. Under (SSP1-2.6 SSP5-8.5), shows overall trend, reaching a maximum 2070s high-emission scenario (an increase 3.6 5 compared distribution). Expansion observed northern high-latitude regions. geometric centroid areas demonstrated significant northward shift, reflecting adaptive expansion response warming climates. highlights impact provides scientific evidence conservation, cultivation planning, sustainable development context change.

Language: Английский

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Habitat Suitability Analysis for Luehdorfia chinensis Leech, 1893 (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River: A Study Based on the MaxEnt Model

Insects, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(4), P. 396 - 396

Published: April 9, 2025

L. chinensis is a National Grade II Protected Animal in China, and predicting its suitable habitats the middle lower reaches of Yangtze River crucial for developing effective conservation strategies. This study uses methods such as MaxEnt model to predict region, providing scientific basis species conservation. The results show that AUC value 0.989, indicating excellent predictive performance. Under current climatic conditions, area highly 75.1 × 103 km2, accounting 8.8% total region. However, under SSP2-4.5 climate scenario, predicted indicate general decline species. change signals survival will face significant risks future, highlighting urgent need develop implement scientifically measures.

Language: Английский

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Potential Distribution of Tribe Erythroneurini in China Based on the R-Optimized MaxEnt Model, with Implications for Management

Insects, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(5), P. 450 - 450

Published: April 24, 2025

This study examines the distribution dynamics of tribe Erythroneurini, a group economically significant leafhoppers in China that pose threats to crops through sap feeding and virus transmission, while also serving as valuable ecological indicators due their sensitivity environmental changes. Through systematic evaluation 12 species models (SDMs), we ultimately selected Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model for predicting distributions. The R-optimized MaxEnt incorporated 11 variables 218 occurrence records assess habitat suitability under historical, current, future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 SSP5-8.5). was configured with LQP features default regularization multiplier value 1. Results reveal temperature (BIO6, BIO2, BIO4) precipitation (BIO12) are primary drivers suitability, tropical subtropical regions identified most favorable. Future projections indicate complex pattern contraction expansion, notable northward shift toward higher latitudes change. These findings highlight profound impact change on Erythroneurini distribution, underscoring need proactive management. Implementing long-term monitoring targeted control vulnerable mitigates agricultural risks, supporting sustainable pest management fostering integration conservation development.

Language: Английский

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Assessing the potential global distribution of Monochamus sutor (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) under the influence of climate change and human activities based on Maximum Entropy model

Journal of Economic Entomology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: May 11, 2025

Abstract Monochamus sutor, an important phytophagous pest, is a known vector insect of Bursaphelenchus mucronatus in addition to feeding directly on trees. Although B. causes relatively minor damage European and Asian forests, its threat coniferous forests similar that xylophilus. Given xylophilus evolved into destructive pathogen after introduction Asia, may also pose potential North American forests. Therefore, we assessed the global distributions areas M. sutor their relative dynamics under different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) current (i. considering only bioclimatic factors; ii. including anthropogenic factors) future (2050s 2070s) using optimized Maximum Entropy ecological niche model. The mean area curve value model was greater than 0.86 true skill statistic 0.79. Potentially suitable habitat for driven by combination temperature (Bio1 Bio2), precipitation (Bio14, Bio15, Bio18), human activities. In period, are concentrated Europe, East America, smaller presence disturbance factors alone. At same time, scenarios, range will always expand more contract, with projected increase 1,329.02 1,798.23 × 104 km2 compared time especially spread toward Canada United States America America. present study provides insights risks which help guide decision-making pest control as well forest conservation.

Language: Английский

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Climate Change Facilitates the Potentially Suitable Habitats of the Invasive Crop Insect Ectomyelois ceratoniae (Zeller)

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1), P. 119 - 119

Published: Jan. 19, 2024

Invasive alien insects directly or indirectly driven by climate change threaten crop production and increase economic costs worldwide. Ectomyelois ceratoniae (Zeller) is a highly reproductive invasive insect that can severely damage fruit commodities cause significant losses globally. Estimating the global potentially suitable habitats (PSH) of E. an important aspect its risk assessment early warning. Here, we constructed optimized MaxEnt model based on distribution records ceratoniae, nine environmental variables (EVs), to predict PSH under current future climates. Our results showed RM value was 2.0 mean area receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.972, indicating high accuracy optimal model. The temperature driest quarter (bio9, 50.2%), wettest (bio8, 16.9%), seasonality (bio4, 9.7%), precipitation coldest (bio19, 9.1%) were EVs affecting patterns. are mainly located in western Asia scenarios (687.57 × 104 km2), which increasing trend scenarios. achieved maximum shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 1–2.6 2030s SSP2-4.5 2050s. increased southwestern Asia, northwestern Europe, South America, North southern Oceania, Africa. findings suggest quarantine officials governmental departments above high-risk invasion areas should strengthen monitoring warning control ceratoniae; particular, cultural measures be taken where further expansion expected future.

Language: Английский

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