Projected Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Endemic Plant Distributions in a Mediterranean Island Hotspot: The Case of Evvia (Aegean, Greece) DOI Open Access
Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis, Ioannis Kokkoris, Panayiotis Trigas

et al.

Climate, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(5), P. 100 - 100

Published: May 13, 2025

Anthropogenic climate and land use change pose major threats to island floras worldwide, yet few studies have integrated these drivers in a single vulnerability assessment. Here, we examine the endemic flora of Evvia, second-largest Aegean Greece an important biodiversity hotspot, as model system address how disturbances may reshape species distributions, community composition, phylogenetic diversity patterns. We used distribution models under Ensemble Small Models ENphylo framework, specifically designed overcome parameter uncertainty rare with inherently limited occurrence records. By integrating projections dynamic data, forecasted potential range shifts, habitat fragmentation, patterns for 114 taxa through year 2100. addressed transferability uncertainty, key challenge projecting distributions novel conditions, using Shape framework extrapolation analysis, thus ensuring robust projections. Our findings reveal pronounced projected contractions increased fragmentation all studied taxa, more severe impacts on single-island endemics. demonstrated high concordance established IUCN Red List assessments, validating their ecological relevance despite sample size limitations Current hotspots, primarily located mountainous regions, are expected shift towards lowland areas, probably becoming extinction hotspots due losses, especially Evvia’s Emerging hotspot analysis identified new centres zones, while high-altitude areas showed sporadic Temporal beta indicated higher turnover distantly related at elevations, closely clustering lower altitudes. This pattern suggests homogenisation plant communities areas. The assessment protected area effectiveness revealed that 94.6% current within this coverage is decline by conservation gaps, highlighting requiring urgent protection preserve future biodiversity. study reveals valuable information regarding global change, offering applicable other insular systems. demonstrate adaptive strategies should account shifts serve warning urging immediate actions maintain unique evolutionary heritage islands.

Language: Английский

Projected Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Endemic Plant Distributions in a Mediterranean Island Hotspot: The Case of Evvia (Aegean, Greece) DOI Open Access
Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis, Ioannis Kokkoris, Panayiotis Trigas

et al.

Climate, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(5), P. 100 - 100

Published: May 13, 2025

Anthropogenic climate and land use change pose major threats to island floras worldwide, yet few studies have integrated these drivers in a single vulnerability assessment. Here, we examine the endemic flora of Evvia, second-largest Aegean Greece an important biodiversity hotspot, as model system address how disturbances may reshape species distributions, community composition, phylogenetic diversity patterns. We used distribution models under Ensemble Small Models ENphylo framework, specifically designed overcome parameter uncertainty rare with inherently limited occurrence records. By integrating projections dynamic data, forecasted potential range shifts, habitat fragmentation, patterns for 114 taxa through year 2100. addressed transferability uncertainty, key challenge projecting distributions novel conditions, using Shape framework extrapolation analysis, thus ensuring robust projections. Our findings reveal pronounced projected contractions increased fragmentation all studied taxa, more severe impacts on single-island endemics. demonstrated high concordance established IUCN Red List assessments, validating their ecological relevance despite sample size limitations Current hotspots, primarily located mountainous regions, are expected shift towards lowland areas, probably becoming extinction hotspots due losses, especially Evvia’s Emerging hotspot analysis identified new centres zones, while high-altitude areas showed sporadic Temporal beta indicated higher turnover distantly related at elevations, closely clustering lower altitudes. This pattern suggests homogenisation plant communities areas. The assessment protected area effectiveness revealed that 94.6% current within this coverage is decline by conservation gaps, highlighting requiring urgent protection preserve future biodiversity. study reveals valuable information regarding global change, offering applicable other insular systems. demonstrate adaptive strategies should account shifts serve warning urging immediate actions maintain unique evolutionary heritage islands.

Language: Английский

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