Land Use and Land Cover Change Monitoring and Prediction of a UNESCO World Heritage Site: Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone Using Cellular Automata-Markov Model

Land, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 12(1), P. 151 - 151

Published: Jan. 2, 2023

The Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone is located on the edge of Eastern Himalayan biodiversity hotspot region. In 1985, National Park (KNP) was declared a World Heritage Site by UNESCO. Nowadays, anthropogenic interference has created significant negative impact this national park. As result, area under natural habitat gradually decreasing. current study attempted to analyze land use cover (LULC) change in using remote sensing data with CA-Markov models. Satellite and geographic information system (GIS) are widely used for monitoring, mapping, detection LULC dynamics. changing rate assessed thirty years (1990–2020) Landsat data. analyses LULC, decrease waterbody, grassland agricultural land, increase sand or dry river beds, forest, built-up areas. Between 1990 2020, grassland, decreased 18.4, 9.96, 64.88%, respectively, while areas increased 103.72, 6.96, 89.03%, respectively. result shows that covered waterbodies, mostly converted into bed According study, 2050, forests will 3.67, 3.91, 7.11%, respectively; agriculture up 16.67% 0.37%, expected slightly during period (up 2.4%). outcome be useful long-term management Zone.

Language: Английский

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Research on the evolution characteristics, driving mechanisms and multi-scenario simulation of habitat quality in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay based on multi-model coupling

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 924, P. 171263 - 171263

Published: Feb. 28, 2024

Language: Английский

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Habitat quality evolution characteristics and multi-scenario prediction in Shenzhen based on PLUS and InVEST models

Frontiers in Environmental Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: Feb. 15, 2023

Based on the PLUS model, research proposed a method to adjust probability of land use transition reduce calculation error number pixels. The refined algorithm is applied simulate Shenzhen situation in 2030 under progressive scenario using three periods data 2000, 2010 and 2020. Then, InVEST model was employed evaluate distribution future trends habitat quality during study period. Following are conclusions: 1) construction expanded rapidly ecological gradually shrank proportion artificial surface area increased by about 45.4% (304.98 km 2 ) within 20 years. 2) By simulating 2030, results revealed that change mainly concentrated central western regions. 3) overall average at medium level, but showed continuous degradation trend each year throughout Spatially, Shenzhen’s region. 4) Under natural development scenario, would experience sharp decline 2030. conservation guaranteed certain degree, expansion outside will still affect boundary constraint scenario; Only priority, has been restored improved large extent. 5) In order slow down improve regional environment. It necessary not only strictly implement various protection boundaries delineated context Territorial Spatial Planning, also policy “Clear waters green mountains as good gold silver” process urban development. Government should reasonably control scale cities, optimize compensation mechanism, restoration policies such returning farmland forests grassland.

Language: Английский

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A Coupled InVEST-PLUS Model for the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Multi-Scenario Prediction Analysis

Land, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 13(4), P. 509 - 509

Published: April 12, 2024

In investigating the spatiotemporal patterns and spatial attributes of carbon storage across terrestrial ecosystems, there is a significant focus on improving regional sequestration capabilities. Such endeavors are crucial for balancing land development with ecological preservation promoting sustainable, low-carbon urban growth. This study employs integrated InVEST-PLUS model to assess predict changes in ecosystem under various use scenarios within Chengdu cluster, vital region Central Western China, by 2050. The results indicate following. (1) A linkage between dynamics changes: over two decades, 7.5% decrease arable was observed alongside 12.3% increase areas, leading an 8.2% net reduction storage, equating loss 1.6 million tons carbon. (2) Carbon variations four scenarios—natural (NDS), (UDS), farmland protection (FPS), (EPS)—highlight impact differing developmental conservation policies Chengdu’s reserves. Projections until 2050 suggest further 5% NDS without intervention, while EPS could potentially 3%, emphasizing importance strategic planning policy. research provides solid theoretical foundation exploring relationship further. summary, findings highlight necessity incorporating considerations into strategies. not only sheds light current challenges but also presents method forecasting mitigating urbanization effects services, thus supporting sustainable goals.

Language: Английский

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An Integrated Modelling Approach to Urban Growth and Land Use/Cover Change

Land, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 11(10), P. 1715 - 1715

Published: Oct. 3, 2022

Long-term sustainable development in developing countries requires researching and projecting urban physical growth land use/land cover change (LUCC). This research fills a gap the literature by exploring issues of modelling coupled LUCC growth, their causes, role policymakers. Tabriz metropolitan area (TMA), located at north-west Iran, was chosen as case study to design an integrated framework using four well-established methods: cellular automata (CA), Markov chains (MC), logistic regression (LR), stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA). Northern, north-west, central TMA were affected worst urbanisation loss cultivated grassland between 1990 2020. The accessibility arterial roadways proximity major cities influenced these changes. Three scenarios characterise dynamics: uncontrolled scenario (UGS) historical trend (HTGS) foresee significant continued expansion above long-term average 2050, while environmental protection (EPGS) promotes compact urbanisation. methods used this may be various contexts examine temporal spatial dynamics growth.

Language: Английский

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Evolution characteristics and multi-scenario prediction of habitat quality in Yulin City based on PLUS and InVEST models

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: May 24, 2024

Abstract As a major energy city in China, Yulin City has faced huge challenges to the ecological environment with its rapid economic development and urbanization. Therefore, it is of great significance study impact land use changes on habitat quality. Based three periods data 1995, 2005 2015, PLUS model was used simulate 2015. The measured kappa coefficient 0.8859, which met simulation accuracy requirements. By setting zone boundaries adjusting parameters, progressive scenarios are designed predict spatial distribution 2035. InVEST analyze spatiotemporal evolution City’s quality past 20 years evaluate under after years. results as follows: (1) During period, construction expanded rapidly, an area increase 380.87 km 2 years, gradually shrank. (2) various 2035 show that future will mainly be concentrated central western regions. (3) at medium level overall showed downward trend. Spatially, degree degradation characteristic decreasing from West East. (4) 2035, scenario suitable urban development, been improved certain extent, not only protects security but also meets demand for development. this help government better understand provide theoretical support reference formulation protection policies implementation work current planning.

Language: Английский

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Modelling landuse dynamics of ecologically sensitive peri-urban space by incorporating an ANN cellular automata-Markov model for Siliguri urban agglomeration, India

Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 10(1), P. 167 - 199

Published: April 22, 2023

Language: Английский

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Scenario-Based LULC Dynamics Projection Using the CA–Markov Model on Upper Awash Basin (UAB), Ethiopia

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(2), P. 1683 - 1683

Published: Jan. 16, 2023

Understanding the spatiotemporal changes in land use and cover (LULC) watershed is crucial for maintaining sustainability of resources. This study intents to understand historical (1972–2015) future (2030–2060) distribution LULC Upper Awash Basin (UAB). The supervised Maximum Likelihood Classifier technique (MLC) was implemented classification. Cellular Automata-Markov (CA–Markov) model employed project two scenarios LULC, ‘business-as-usual’ (BAU) ‘governance’ (Gov). Results from area show that urban cropland areas increased 52.53 km2 (0.45%) 354.14 (3.01%) 6040.75 (51.25%) 8472.45 (71.97%), respectively. Whereas grassland, shrubland, water bodies shrunk 2052.08 (17.41%) 447.63 (3.80%), 2462.99 (20.89%) 1399.49 (11.89%) 204.87 (1.74%) 152.44 (1.29%), respectively, 1972 2015. results indicated forest highly vulnerable occupied by areas. projected under BAU scenario shows substantial expansion, increasing (71.97%) 2015 9159.21 (77.71%) 2060 (3.1%) 2015, 1196.78 (10.15%) 2060, at expense vegetation cover. These provide insight intothe area, thus requiring urgent attention managers, policymakers, stakeholders sustainable practices UAB. Meanwhile, Gov indicates an increase vegetable covers a decrease cropland, encouraging development compared scenario.

Language: Английский

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Spatial and temporal changes and development predictions of urban green spaces in Jinan City, Shandong, China

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 152, P. 110373 - 110373

Published: May 24, 2023

The study of long-term changes to urban green space reveals the reasons for in spatial pattern and predicts future development trends, which is great importance protection integrated development. This used Markov Chain PLUS models explore temporal patterns rural areas Jinan City during recent rapid urbanization driving forces behind them. results show that from 2000 2020, decrease slowed down gradually, elevation population density were primary factors influencing space. In simulation projections, ecologically protected scenario had a relatively low rate site change was more protective arable land Ecological conservation predicted result unused reflect advantages intensive use. findings will provide decision-makers with ideas related sustainable

Language: Английский

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Evaluation and Prediction of Carbon Storage in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by Coupling the GMMOP and PLUS Models

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(13), P. 5776 - 5776

Published: July 6, 2024

Land-use alterations exert a profound impact on carbon storage within terrestrial ecosystems. Exploring the spatiotemporal dynamics of regional land use and is crucial for optimizing national spatial planning fostering low-carbon development. For this study, we utilized land-use data spanning from 2000 to 2020 Tibetan Plateau assessed temporal variations in using Integrated Valuation Ecosystem Services Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. We adjusted density provinces study area as prerequisite. Moreover, integrated Grey Multi-objective Decision-making (GMMOP) model with Patch-generating Simulation (PLUS) forecast 2030 across various scenarios. The findings indicated that between 2020, overall witnessed decrease 18.94 × 108 t. Carbon grassland decreased by 22.10 t, unused land, forest cultivated construction water increased 1.56 0.92 0.66 158.50 104 t 26.74 respectively. soil organic pool exhibited highest average 195.63 whereas litterfall contained lowest stock 15.07 In comparison levels observed total experienced reduction 8.66 5.29 under inherent progression economic growth scenarios, Conversely, it rose 11.87 16.21 environmental preservation holistic Under scenario, belowground biomass increase 5.59%. These offer valuable insights management enhancement sinks Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Language: Английский

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