Dynamic vulnerability of smallholder agricultural systems in the face of climate change for Ethiopia

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 16(4), P. 044007 - 044007

Published: Jan. 14, 2021

Abstract Assessing vulnerability to climate change and extremes is the first step towards guiding adaptation. It provides basis decide ‘what’ adaptation measures are needed ‘where’. Vulnerability which defined as a function of exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, differs spatially evolves temporally. Therefore, it imperative understand dynamics at sub-national scales be prepared for respond current future climatic risks. This paper focuses on Ethiopia where understanding in smallholder agriculture systems missing date. The assesses crop-based past (1996–2005), (2006–2015), two (2036–2045 2066–2075) scenarios using an indicator-based approach. based Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) RCP 2.6 6.0 from four general circulation models. Results show emergence highly vulnerable zones that were scenario. With Paris agreement pathway, keeping global warming under 2 °C (RCP 2.6), reduction 10% noted far (2066–75) compared exposure increases, making 30% vulnerable. projected increase hazards will worsen agricultural unless deficit sufficiently addressed. study maps temporal unlike prevailing snapshot assessments subnational-level Ethiopia. seeks assist decision-making process build resilience other low-income countries with similar geophysical socio-economic conditions.

Language: Английский

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Monitoring climate extremes using standardized evapotranspiration index and future projection of rainfall and temperature in the wettest parts of southwest Ethiopia

Environmental Challenges, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 7, P. 100517 - 100517

Published: April 1, 2022

Ethiopia is categorized as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate extremes. A better understanding extremes at short and long timescales therefore crucial minimize potential impacts these The present study aimed characterize frequency severity agricultural hydrological drought in southwestern parts over period 1971 2020. Satellite blended/gridded historical observed monthly rainfall, maximum temperature minimum data nine stations (Arjo, Bako Tibe, Bedele, Didessa Dildey, Gedo, Gimbi, Sekoru, Serbo Nekemte) were obtained from National Meteorological Agency. We used standardized evapotranspiration index (SPEI) calculate dry wet condition 3-, 6-, 12-months timescales. Besides, past change analysis, future rainfall projected under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) CMIP5 for near mid-term (2041-2060) end twenty-first century (2081-2100). Our results showed that much higher than longer In study, a total 108 111 months Bedele Nekemte, respectively SPEI 3 both recorded 101 6. An increase mean by 1.2°C was 21st comparative reference time (1986-2005) high emission scenario (RCP8.5). Projected changes slight periods 2041-2060 2081-2100 RCP4.5, RCP6.0 RCP8.5, while trends RCP2.6 indicated decrease. this will be useful design effective resilience agriculture area. Moreover, it provides evidences policy makers towards adaptation mitigation country.

Language: Английский

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The Resilience of Vegetation to the 2009/2010 Extreme Drought in Southwest China

Forests, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(6), P. 851 - 851

Published: May 30, 2022

The 2009/2010 extreme drought in southwest China (SWC) was a “once-in-a-century” event, which caused unprecedented damage to the regional ecology and socioeconomic development. event provided chance explore resilience of vegetation growth productivity drought. Here, we used self-calibrating Palmer severity index (scPDSI) describe characteristics Vegetation indices, including normalized difference (NDVI), leaf area (LAI), gross primary (GPP), were applied analyze different types Our results showed that occurred mainly Yunnan Province, Guizhou central northern Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, northwestern Sichuan Province. spatial heterogeneity related temperature increase water deficit. During drought, evergreen broadleaf forest least suppressed, whereas cropland greatly suppressed. recovery higher than forest. NDVI LAI recovered more 80% drought-affected within 5 months, GPP required longer time recover. Moreover, multiple linear regression an surface soil moisture able significantly improve resistance forest, needleleaf shrubland, deciduous grassland. study highlights differences indicates is important factor affecting SWC.

Language: Английский

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Seasonal droughts and the risk of childhood undernutrition in Ethiopia

World Development, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 141, P. 105417 - 105417

Published: Feb. 15, 2021

Language: Английский

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Vegetation Dynamics and Climatological Drivers in Ethiopia at the Turn of the Century

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 13(16), P. 3267 - 3267

Published: Aug. 18, 2021

Global change, particularly climate poses a risk of altering vegetation composition and health. The consequences manifest throughout Earth’s system as change in ecosystem services socioecological stability. It is therefore critical that dynamics are monitored to establish baseline conditions detect shifts. Africa at high environmental yet evaluation the link between still needed for some regions. This work expands on more frequent local multinational scale studies trends by quantifying directional persistence (DP) national Ethiopia, based normalized difference index (NDVI) 2000 2016. DP metric determines cumulative greenness has been applied ecological stability Secondary analysis utilizing panel regression methodologies carried out measure effect NDVI. Models developed consider spatial dependence including fixed effects weights. Results indicate widespread declines NDVI, with greatest during dry season concentrated northern Ethiopia. Regression analyses suggest significant control from climatic variables. However, temperature larger which contrasts findings previous studies.

Language: Английский

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