Spatiotemporal characteristics and prediction of carbon emissions/absorption from land use change in the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 151, P. 110329 - 110329

Published: May 10, 2023

Changes in land use significantly contribute to carbon emissions and other environmental problems. Regional changes from have been affected by rapid urbanization. To dynamically assess change the spatiotemporal characteristics of 1990 2020, this study used PLUS, grey back-propagation neural network, related emission accounting models as well four distinct 2030 scenario simulations. According findings, urbanization urban agglomeration on northern slope Tianshan Mountains (UANSTM) developed rapidly 2020 with a noticeable transfer diverse types land. In particular, quantity construction cropland belonging source increased 153.271% 55.072% respectively. Simultaneously, showed trend continuous increase demonstrated an S-shaped curve growth, relatively growth 2000 2015, that has tended be stable recent years. If continues, inflection point will appear around 2028. Land simulations for reveal ecological security (ES) scenario, which slows expansion while increasing land, is most likely reduce negative consequences This because higher potential peak per unit area may obtained sink Consequently, ES region comparable future development model. The results provide reference territorial space planning dual target recommendations UANSTM.

Language: Английский

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Spatiotemporal simulation of blue-green space pattern evolution and carbon storage under different SSP-RCP scenarios in Wuhan

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Rapid socioeconomic growth has altered land use patterns, resulting in a surge worldwide CO2 emissions, triggering global climate challenges and adversely affecting human health, safety, sustainable development. As result, immediate action is required to undertake mitigation adaptation strategies. This study, based on the causal logic of change, blue-green space carbon uses system dynamics (SD) model, patch-generating simulation (PLUS) integrated valuation ecosystem service trade-offs (InVEST) models simulate evolution patterns predict spatial distribution storage Wuhan 2060 from 2030 under three SSP-RCP scenarios CMIP6 investigates their mechanisms. The findings show that across various scenarios, would decline over next 30 years, with green spaces decreasing some amount blue growing marginally. also expected due shrinking patterns. SSP126 scenario least shrinkage spaces, reduction 7.18Tg storage. Under SSP245 scenario, expansion non-blue-green encroaches an 8.13 Tg decrease Across SSP585 expand fastest, highest loss considerable drop 11.67 Tg. research extremely important for optimizing regional coordinating high-quality development Wuhan, assisting implementation urban change plans.

Language: Английский

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Coupled effects of land use and climate change on water supply in SSP–RCP scenarios: A case study of the Ganjiang River Basin, China

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 154, P. 110745 - 110745

Published: Aug. 1, 2023

Coupling land use and climate change under shared socioeconomic pathway representative concentration (SSP–RCP) scenarios can provide more accurate predictions of water supply risks, thereby supporting decision-making for spatial planning with a focus on adaptation. Climate exhibits temporal differences. To meet the requirements planning, further research is needed to assess risks at different basin or regional scales. In this study, we selected four SSP–RCP analysis, considering scale planning. The modeling capabilities five global models (GCMs) multi-model ensemble (MME) were evaluated using Taylor diagram, which assesses performance element simulations. framework that consisted system dynamics (SD), patch-generating land-use simulations (PLUS), Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed analyze synergistic changes in climate, use, supply. Ganjiang River Basin (GRB) serves as case study climate-adaptive scale, given its characteristics high agricultural demand vulnerability droughts floods. aims support such our projections, precipitation GRB showed slightly increasing trend from 2021 2050. Monthly increases during flood season August decreases dry October December. maximum minimum temperatures an both yearly monthly scales, higher fall winter. During phase, quantities SSP126 SSP245 similar variations. SSP370 experienced most significant reduction farmland, while SSP585 displayed scattered punctuated layout construction land. annual decreasing 2035 2036–2050, largest found SSP370. variation complex. There consistent season, whereas Seasonal variations are major security concern basin's future. It necessary strengthen northern region enhance ability adapt

Language: Английский

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Analysis of spatiotemporal changes in cultural heritage protected cities and their influencing factors: Evidence from China

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 151, P. 110327 - 110327

Published: May 8, 2023

In the Anthropocene, it is essential to analyze spatiotemporal characteristics and causes of land use landscape pattern changes in cultural heritage protected cities (CHPCs) promote sustainable development CHPCs. Here we PLUS model explore forecast from 2000 2060 Pingyao, Gucheng, She Langzhong, where Four Ancient Cities China are located. First, found driving factors with transfer matrix, metrics a random forest analysis strategy. Furthermore, simulated predicted patterns 2030 by applying CA indexes, testing carbon peak neutralization target achieved. The results demonstrate that urban expansion leads an increase tendency diversity heterogeneity, as well adversely affecting ecological land. Altitude, socioeconomic conditions, policies regarding utilization resources all significantly impact four cities' changes. Both will become more complex future. This study offers new insight compare different

Language: Английский

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Impact of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Changes on Carbon Stocks and Economic Implications in Calabria Using Google Earth Engine (GEE)

Sensors, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 24(17), P. 5836 - 5836

Published: Sept. 8, 2024

Terrestrial ecosystems play a crucial role in global carbon cycling by sequestering from the atmosphere and storing it primarily living biomass soil. Monitoring terrestrial stocks is essential for understanding impacts of changes land use on sequestration. This study investigates potential remote sensing techniques Google Earth Engine to map monitor forests Calabria (Italy) over past two decades. Using satellite-sourced Corine cover datasets InVEST model, Land Use Cover (LULC), concentrations are analyzed, providing insights into dynamics region. Furthermore, cellular automata Markov chain used simulate future spatial temporal LULC. The results reveal notable fluctuations LULC; specifically, settlement bare have expanded at expense forested grassland areas. These significantly declined overall between 2000 2024, resulting economic impacts. region experienced periods both decline growth concentration, with losses up EUR 357.57 million equivalent 6,558,069.68 Mg CO 2 emissions during decline. Conversely, gain, benefit reached 41.26 million, sequestered 756,919.47 emissions. research aims highlight critical satellite data enhancing our development comprehensive strategies managing ecosystems.

Language: Английский

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Multi-Objective Optimization of Land Use in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region of China Based on the GMOP-PLUS Coupling Model

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(5), P. 3977 - 3977

Published: Feb. 22, 2023

The changeable patterns and contractions of land use have become increasingly significant in recent years as the economy society rapidly developed. Subsequently, change simulation has a focal point study processes. Four development scenarios 2030, including business-as-usual, ecological protection, economic development, sustainable scenarios, are proposed to realize Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei context low-carbon security. Then, feasible multi-objective optimization scheme suitable for region’s long-term was identified through comparative analysis. GMOP-PLUS model analyzed changes benefits carbon emissions by optimizing quantitative structure spatial layout different scenarios. cultivated area four decreased, while construction increased all other than protection Moreover, target scenario most balanced, with reduced 49.77 million tons CNY 0.73 billion compared business-as-usual scenario, respectively. Meanwhile, 0.03 billion, 1.54 times those 2020. Therefore, more line needs Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei high-quality aiming towards goal. This work provides theoretical basis territorial planning perspectives obtained results.

Language: Английский

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Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Services and Driving Factors in the Yellow River Basin of Henan Province, China

Forests, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(9), P. 1547 - 1547

Published: Sept. 2, 2024

The Henan Yellow River Basin is an ecological support belt for the entire basin. It holds a significant position in high-quality development and conservation within Basin. However, due to improper activities, such as urban expansion deforestation of farmland, certain areas region have encountered series issues, posing challenges ecosystem services. scientific foundation sustainable environment established by research on evolution characteristics driving factors service functions. This study focuses Basin, introducing remote sensing data biomass data, assessing spatiotemporal variations InVEST model—including carbon stock, water yield, soil conservation—from 2000 2020. analyzes functions different land use types. employs Geodetector identify dominant behind changes these based improved model evaluated results. findings reveal that from 2020, total stock increased 1.86%, per unit area rose 1.81%, spatial distribution remained largely stable. high-value regions were clustered west part north, primarily consisting forest land. Carbon capacity other regions, mainly farmland construction land, was poor, with having strongest sequestration capacity, followed grassland. Total yield decreased 20.08%, 20.03%, closely following trend precipitation distribution. south, farmland. amount 19.96%, 19.93%, patterns similar those yield. concentrated southwestern northern forested while weaker. divergence most influenced population density, precipitation, slope. In conclusion, during period, storage increased, decline highlighted critical issues region. These indicate need targeted measures strategies address services mitigate adverse environmental impacts, ensuring long-term health region’s ecosystems. offers in-depth understanding differentiation their factors, enabling precise assessment regional services, providing theoretical formulating effective policies.

Language: Английский

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Sustainable land use scenarios generated by optimizing ecosystem distribution based on temporal and spatial patterns of ecosystem services in the southern China hilly region

Ecological Informatics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 78, P. 102275 - 102275

Published: Aug. 29, 2023

Language: Английский

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Linking ecological and social systems to promote regional security management: A perspective of ecosystem services supply-flow-demand

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 156, P. 111124 - 111124

Published: Oct. 27, 2023

The ecosystem services (ESs) are the extremely important basis for identification and optimization of ecological security patterns (ESPs). Nonetheless, great majority existing research on ESPs has concentrated ESs supply, ignoring demand flow from social systems, which hinders connection between systems. Consequently, using remote sensing products, meteorological observations statistical yearbooks other multisource data, this study analysed supply–demand matching characteristics in West Liaohe River Basin China based assessment six key 2010 to 2020, including water yield, food production, livestock breeding, soil loss by water, wind, net primary identified combination with perspective supply–demand, discussed compensation scheme construction flow. results indicated that supply within area was mismatched. Therefore, identifying sources solely through high areas might not effectively meet needs human society. By expanding scope alternative taking into account distance areas, it helpful improve rationality scientificity ESPs. There a threshold effect extraction corridors, but there no significant impact overall spatial distribution will help promote realization relationship better guide development regional socio-ecological coupling

Language: Английский

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Evaluation and Prediction of Carbon Storage in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by Coupling the GMMOP and PLUS Models

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(13), P. 5776 - 5776

Published: July 6, 2024

Land-use alterations exert a profound impact on carbon storage within terrestrial ecosystems. Exploring the spatiotemporal dynamics of regional land use and is crucial for optimizing national spatial planning fostering low-carbon development. For this study, we utilized land-use data spanning from 2000 to 2020 Tibetan Plateau assessed temporal variations in using Integrated Valuation Ecosystem Services Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. We adjusted density provinces study area as prerequisite. Moreover, integrated Grey Multi-objective Decision-making (GMMOP) model with Patch-generating Simulation (PLUS) forecast 2030 across various scenarios. The findings indicated that between 2020, overall witnessed decrease 18.94 × 108 t. Carbon grassland decreased by 22.10 t, unused land, forest cultivated construction water increased 1.56 0.92 0.66 158.50 104 t 26.74 respectively. soil organic pool exhibited highest average 195.63 whereas litterfall contained lowest stock 15.07 In comparison levels observed total experienced reduction 8.66 5.29 under inherent progression economic growth scenarios, Conversely, it rose 11.87 16.21 environmental preservation holistic Under scenario, belowground biomass increase 5.59%. These offer valuable insights management enhancement sinks Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Language: Английский

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