Published: Jan. 1, 2023
The cascading impact of disastrous events has become an important focus disaster research. In recent years, forest fires have occurred frequently in China, causing huge economic losses. Studying the impacts drought and fire is great significance for reducing risks. Taking Yunnan Province China as example, meteorological data point from 2005 to 2018 were collected statistically analyzed. A Bayesian network model was established, enabling prior probability conditional nodes be determined. Based on this information, a prediction established using causal reasoning. Finally, case test, Brier score used test accuracy model. value 0.305, which less than qualified threshold 0.6. results indicated that study had good performance, basically consistent with facts. provide insight into mechanism by induced occur will use prevention work.
Language: Английский