Modeling of the Cascading Impacts of Drought and Forest Fire Based on a Bayesian Network DOI
Fang Chen, Huicong Jia,

Enyu Du

et al.

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

The cascading impact of disastrous events has become an important focus disaster research. In recent years, forest fires have occurred frequently in China, causing huge economic losses. Studying the impacts drought and fire is great significance for reducing risks. Taking Yunnan Province China as example, meteorological data point from 2005 to 2018 were collected statistically analyzed. A Bayesian network model was established, enabling prior probability conditional nodes be determined. Based on this information, a prediction established using causal reasoning. Finally, case test, Brier score used test accuracy model. value 0.305, which less than qualified threshold 0.6. results indicated that study had good performance, basically consistent with facts. provide insight into mechanism by induced occur will use prevention work.

Language: Английский

Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought under different vegetation types and responses to climatic factors in Jilin Province, China DOI

Mingzhu Lv,

Lijie Qin, Bo Li

et al.

Regional Environmental Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 25(1)

Published: Dec. 21, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Modeling of the Cascading Impacts of Drought and Forest Fire Based on a Bayesian Network DOI
Fang Chen, Huicong Jia,

Enyu Du

et al.

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

The cascading impact of disastrous events has become an important focus disaster research. In recent years, forest fires have occurred frequently in China, causing huge economic losses. Studying the impacts drought and fire is great significance for reducing risks. Taking Yunnan Province China as example, meteorological data point from 2005 to 2018 were collected statistically analyzed. A Bayesian network model was established, enabling prior probability conditional nodes be determined. Based on this information, a prediction established using causal reasoning. Finally, case test, Brier score used test accuracy model. value 0.305, which less than qualified threshold 0.6. results indicated that study had good performance, basically consistent with facts. provide insight into mechanism by induced occur will use prevention work.

Language: Английский

Citations

0