Climate change projections in temperature and precipitation using cmip6 in Central Mexico

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 156(2)

Published: Jan. 10, 2025

Language: Английский

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Sea Surface Temperature Forecasting Using Foundational Models: A Novel Approach Assessed in the Caribbean Sea

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(3), P. 517 - 517

Published: Feb. 2, 2025

Sea surface temperature (SST) plays a pivotal role in air–sea interactions, with implications for climate, weather, and marine ecosystems, particularly regions like the Caribbean Sea, where upwelling dynamic oceanographic processes significantly influence biodiversity fisheries. This study evaluates performance of foundational models, Chronos Lag-Llama, forecasting SST using 22 years (2002–2023) high-resolution satellite-derived situ data. The model, leveraging zero-shot learning tokenization methods, consistently outperformed Lag-Llama across all forecast horizons, demonstrating lower errors greater stability, especially moderate variability. model’s ability to extreme events is assessed, description such presented two southern system. resembles variability horizons up 7 days, providing reliable short-term predictions. Beyond this, model exhibits increased bias error, strong gradients high associated coastal processes. findings highlight advantages including reduced computational demands adaptability diverse tasks, while also underscoring their limitations complex physical phenomena. establishes benchmark models emphasizes need hybrid approaches integrating principles improve accuracy ecologically critical regions.

Language: Английский

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Changes in Global Marine Heatwaves in a Non‐stationary Climate

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 52(9)

Published: May 9, 2025

Abstract Understanding the changes in marine heatwaves (MHWs) is vital for safeguarding ecosystems and effective risk management. However, previous studies have assumed stationary changes, leaving dynamics of MHW properties within a non‐stationary framework unclear. Here, using an improved framework, we show that 20‐, 50‐, 100‐year MHWs been substantially underestimated most oceans. Approximately half world's oceans are now experiencing increasingly prolonged MHWs. On average, at return level, global more than doubled duration, while increasing by 67% frequency 23% intensity. Further analysis reveals anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions primary driver observed accounting over 80% Our findings suggest under warming, likely to become frequent, intense, persistent, with important implications adaptation mitigation strategies

Language: Английский

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Eastern Tropical Pacific atmospheric and oceanic projected changes based on CMIP6 models

Progress In Oceanography, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 103362 - 103362

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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