Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ilex macrocarpa Distribution Under Future Climate Scenarios: Implications for Conservation Planning

Forests, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(2), P. 370 - 370

Published: Feb. 18, 2025

Identifying ecological distribution responses to climate change is pivotal for preserving biodiversity. Ilex macrocarpa, a deciduous tree of the Aquifoliaceae family, has considerable and medicinal benefits. This study investigated impact on potential I. macrocarpa using MaxEnt modeling GIS analysis. We analyzed 562 occurrence records against 19 bioclimatic variables, subsequently refined 7 key predictors through Pearson correlation analysis (|r| ≤ 0.75). The model demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.902 ± 0.010). Annual precipitation (67.9% contribution) minimum temperature coldest month (18.4% emerged as primary determinants distribution. Currently, suitable habitats occupy 252.97 × 104 km2 (26.35%) total land area China, with highly areas (72.82 km2) predominantly found in southern China. Under future scenarios, substantial shifts are projected: SSP126 shows 21.7% reduction by 2050, followed 9.1% recovery 2090; SSP245 indicates 13.4% 2050 minimal subsequent change; SSP585 demonstrates most severe impact, 32.0% 2090. Habitat centroid reveals significant northeastward under (116.23 km 2090), variable movements SSP245, southwestern displacement (143.23 2090). These findings suggest differential across implications conservation planning management strategies.

Language: Английский

Higher warming rate in global arid regions driven by decreased ecosystem latent heat under rising vapor pressure deficit from 1981 to 2022

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 371, P. 110622 - 110622

Published: May 14, 2025

Language: Английский