Geographic distribution and impacts of climate change on the suitable habitats of two alpine Rhododendron in Southwest China

Global Ecology and Conservation, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 54, P. e03176 - e03176

Published: Sept. 3, 2024

Mountains of Southwest China (MSC) serve as a prominent geographical distribution center for Rhododendron delavayi and irroratum (Ericaceae). These mountains are currently experiencing an unparalleled warming trend, which poses severe challenges to the survival these keystone alpine species. However, responses species climate change remain incompletely understood often overlooked. Herein, we constructed ensemble models (EMs) using 10 five algorithms calibrate ecological niche predict suitable habitat areas two across four emission scenarios over three distinct periods. Our analysis indicated higher importance elevation than temperature precipitation in shaping spatial The current habitats R. have spanning 14.85 × 104 11.01 km2, respectively, mostly distributed western central regions MSC. is projected decrease by 15.09% 75.31%, but potential expected shrink by12.71% 76.8% different future scenarios. may become confined "summit trap" within relatively low-altitude regions, whereas at high altitudes "biological refuges." will shift westward northward with substantial thermal hydrothermal changes primary drivers alteration migration patterns. losses or benefits under depend on their niches location, provide guidance long-term conservation sustainable use essential insights into assessment plant groups biodiversity hotspots future.

Language: Английский

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Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of Primula filchnerae, an Endangered Herb in China

Plants, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 12(20), P. 3561 - 3561

Published: Oct. 13, 2023

Primula filchnerae, an endangered plant endemic to China, has drawn people’s attention in recent years due its ornamental value flower. It was rarely recorded since being described 1902, but it rediscovered 2009 and is now known from a limited number of sites located Hubei Shaanxi Provinces. Since the species still poorly known, unanswered questions arise related it: How P. filchnerae responded past climate change how might respond future? Why filchmerae so collected during century? We assembled geographic coordinates for through field surveys website searches, then used maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) simulate potential suitable distribution six periods with varied carbon emission levels by combining bioclimatic environmental factors. MaxEnt showed that Min Temperature Coldest Month (bio6) Precipitation Quarter (bio19) affected filchnerae’s most, aggregate contribution >60% ranges above −5 °C below 40 mm, respectively. also analyzed habitat various differing impacts compared today’s habitats, most cases, Sichuan remained stable areas possible expansion north under scenarios, 2050s SSP5-8.5 scenario may be exception. Moreover, we evaluate population shifts, scenarios indicating geometric center would concentrated Province China. Finally, conservation strategies are suggested, including creation protected areas, long-term monitoring, raising public awareness conservation, situ measures, assisted migration, introduction. This study demonstrates have adapted changes different provides scientific basis germplasm management.

Language: Английский

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Predicting current and future distributions of wild medicinal shrubs Ephedra alata Decne (Ephedraceae) under climate change in Tunisia

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 12, 2025

Ephedra alata is a common wild medicinal plant species in Tunisia. The ongoing utilization of E. for applications and uses threatened by the changing climate, this can lead to potential decline alata's geographic distribution range In study, we use modeling estimate both current future alata, providing basis suitable habitats across Herein, climate model was based on two representative concentration pathways representing optimistic scenarios (RCP 2.6) pessimistic 8.5) years 2070. mean temperature coldest quarter, seasonality, precipitation driest known as bioclimatic variables, contribute significantly distributions. Under an scenario, ranges remained stable. On contrary, under scenario 2070, governorates Tunisia will decline, with 44.17–95.35%, or change cause disapearance alata. future, only be available western region, where it previously central eastern regions.

Language: Английский

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MODELING SHIFTING GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF LEAST CONCERN ASIAN BRACKISH FROG FEJERVARYA CANCRIVORA (GRAVENHORST, 1829) (ANURA: DICROGLOSSIDAE) IN WEST JAVA, INDONESIA RELATED TO CMIP 5 RCP 8.5 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

TREUBIA, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 50(2), P. 71 - 86

Published: March 7, 2025

Amphibians and their geographical distribution are threatened by climate change, including speciesin West Java, Indonesia. It is estimated that 300 amphibian species threatened, the familyDicroglossidae. At same time, information on how change impacts inIndonesia very limited. This study aims to assess model suitable habitat for least concernAsian brackish frog, Fejervarya cancrivora (Gravenhorst, 1829), under CMIP 5 RCP 8.5 futureclimate scenario 2070, analyzed using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). The models developedwith MaxEnt showed good predictivity, with an AUC value of 0.701. inform theprecipitation wettest month, isothermality, mean diurnal range variables have significantcontributions make in shaping F. distributions. confirm F.cancrivora had shifted its gained lost habitats a future climatechange 2070. will lose 4,428 km2 current gain 2,673km2 new habitat. In total, cause 1,755 km2.

Language: Английский

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Different Responses of Two Endangered Sister Tree Species to Climate Change: A Comparison Between Island and Continental Populations in Tropical Asia

Integrative Conservation, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 19, 2025

ABSTRACT Climate change is widely recognized as a major threat to biodiversity and critical factor contributing the decline in species populations. However, it remains uncertain whether from continental island environments, especially endangered ones, will respond similarly or differently climate change. The strategies employed by these cope with change, corresponding conservation management approaches, remain poorly understood. In this study, we ecological niche models project future shifts distribution patterns of two sister species, Trigonobalanus doichangensis T. vericillata , which are distributed across regions tropical Asia. We analyzed potential changes their under four different scenarios for 2050s 2070s. Our results indicate that temperature significant driver whereas precipitation predominantly influences . Moreover, found range likely exceed suggesting may have stronger capacity adapting recommend areas be established maintain habitat stability most affected A comprehensive assessment status both also essential. Overall, study underscores distinct responses thereby enhancing our understanding adaptive informing targeted efforts.

Language: Английский

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Prediction of Sorghum bicolor (L.) distribution ranges provides insights on potential sorghum cultivation across tropical ecoregions of Indonesia

BMC Plant Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(1)

Published: March 31, 2025

Sorghum bicolor (L.) is a plant species that has staple and medicinal potential common in tropical regions, including Southeast Asia regions. Despite sorghum being used widely, the information about distributions of various ecoregions Indonesia still limited. vast country with distinct ecoregions, wet western parts arid environments eastern parts. The on distribution important, this situation, study aimed to model using MaxEnt based machine learning. total area suitable for estimated be 68,527,000 ha, or 28.17% Indonesia's areas. Among all Indonesia, Sulawesi Lesser Sunda, representing dry are having largest Sunda have highest percentages 44.76% 21.53% ecoregions. lowest were observed Sumatra, Kalimantan, Papua This confirms prefers as high areas these kinds

Language: Английский

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Advancements in ecological niche models for forest adaptation to climate change: a comprehensive review

Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 3, 2025

ABSTRACT Climate change poses significant challenges to the health and functions of forest ecosystems. Ecological niche models have emerged as crucial tools for understanding impact climate on forests at population, species, ecosystem levels. These also play a pivotal role in developing adaptive conservation management strategies. Recent advancements model development led enhanced prediction accuracy broadened applications models, driven using high‐quality data, improved algorithms, application landscape genomic information. In this review, we start by elucidating concept rationale behind context forestry adaptation change. We then provide an overview occurrence‐based, trait‐based, genomics‐based contributing more comprehensive species responses addition, summarize findings from 338 studies highlight progress made tree including data sources, future scenarios used diverse applications. To assist researchers practitioners, exemplar set accompanying source code tutorial, demonstrating integration population genetics into models. This paper aims concise yet continuous refinements serving valuable resource effectively addressing posed changing climate.

Language: Английский

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Local Adaptation and Climate Change Vulnerability of the Relict Tree Species Taiwania cryptomerioides Provide Insights Into Its Conservation and Restoration

Evolutionary Applications, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 18(5)

Published: May 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Rapid climate change is affecting biodiversity and threatening locally adapted species. Relict species are often confined to relatively narrow, discontinuous geographic ranges provide excellent opportunities study local adaptation extinction. Understanding the adaptive genetic variation vulnerability of relict under essential for their conservation management efforts. Here, we applied a landscape genomics approach investigate population structure predict capacity climatic Taiwania cryptomerioides Hayata, vulnerable Tertiary tree in China. We used restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing on 122 individuals across 10 sampling sites. found three groups Chinese range T. : southwest, central‐eastern, Taiwanese groups. detected significant signals isolation by environment distance, with playing more important role than geography shaping spatial . Moreover, some outliers were related defense stress responses, which could reflect genomic basis adaptation. Gradient forest (GF) analysis revealed that precipitation‐related variables driving Ecological niche modeling GF central‐eastern populations future other populations, contractions high offsets, suggesting these may be at higher risk decline or These findings deepen our understanding will guide restoration programs future.

Language: Английский

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Prediction of Potential Distribution Area of Two Parapatric Species in Triosteum under Climate Change

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(6), P. 5604 - 5604

Published: March 22, 2023

Climate change has a profound impact on global biodiversity and species geographical distribution, especially in alpine regions. The prediction of species’ habitat could help the understanding responses to potential climate threats. Triosteum L. (1753) is typical mountain plant with medicinal ecological value. There are three this genus East Asia. Pinnatifidum Maxim. 1888 himalayanum Wall. 1829 mainly distributed Qinghai–Tibet Plateau its surroundings, they sensitive changes. In study, MaxEnt model was used predict distribution T. present time at four different periods future under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Topographic factors were taken into account prediction. accuracy model’s verified (the AUC values 0.975 0.974), results indicate that temperature key factor affects these species. Compared current suitable area will increase types SSPs (an average 31%), but decrease significantly 93% what it before). addition, overlap areas also expand, potentially affecting their hybridization interspecific competition. centroids migrate east, trajectory complex. This study provide basic data for resource utilization biogeography research Triosteum. It be helpful conservation sustainable use herbaceous plants change.

Language: Английский

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Minimum summer temperature variations in Hanzhong, the southwestern Qinling–Bashan Mountains, China since 1879 AD

Dendrochronologia, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 84, P. 126178 - 126178

Published: Feb. 10, 2024

Language: Английский

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