
Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(11)
Published: Nov. 1, 2024
ABSTRACT The great gerbil ( Rhombomys opimus ) is a gregarious rodent in Central Asia and one of the major pests found desert forest grassland areas. distribution changes migration routes R. under climate change remain unexplored. This study employed multi‐model ensemble, correlation analysis, jackknife method, minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model to simulate potential habitat current future (2030 2050) scenarios estimate its possible routes. results indicate that ensemble integrating Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) performed best within present context. predicted with an area curve (AUC) 0.986 True Skill Statistic (TSS) 0.899, demonstrating excellent statistical accuracy spatial performance. Under scenarios, northern Xinjiang southeastern Kazakhstan will core areas distribution. However, optimal region expand relative one. expansion increase rising CO 2 emission levels over time, potentially enlarging suitable by up 39.49 × 10 4 km . In terms distribution, for shifting toward higher latitudes elevations. For specific routes, tends favor paths through farmland grassland. can provide guidance managing controlling scenarios.
Language: Английский