Potential Distribution and Identification of Critical Areas for the Preservation and Recovery of Three Species of Cinchona L. (Rubiaceae) in Northeastern Peru DOI Open Access
Elver Coronel-Castro, Gerson Meza-Mori,

Jose M. Camarena Torres

et al.

Forests, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(2), P. 321 - 321

Published: Feb. 8, 2024

The genus Cinchona L. has important medicinal, cultural, and economic value is the emblematic tree of Peru. mainly found in cloud forests Andes. However, expansion agriculture livestock farming department Amazonas degrading these ecosystems reduced size genus’s populations. In this work, we model potential distribution under current conditions three species (C. capuli Anderson, C. macrocalyx Pav. Ex DC., pubescens Vahl.) to identify areas with a high likelihood presence their key conservation reforestation zones. We fitted maximum entropy (MaxEnt) using nineteen bioclimatic variables, topographic nine edaphic solar radiation. Under conditions, covers 17.22% (7243.98 km2); macrocalyx, 29.11% (12,238.91 pubescens, 22.94% (9647.63 km2) study area, which was mostly located central southern Amazonas. Only 24.29% (25.51% capuli, 21.02% 26.35% pubescens) distributions are within protected areas, while 10,987.22 km2 surface area degraded, 29.80% probable occurrence 38.72% 34.82% pubescens. Consequently, it necessary promote additional strategies for Cinchona, including establishment new recovery degraded habitats, order protect species.

Language: Английский

Modeling of Forest Fire Risk Areas of Amazonas Department, Peru: Comparative Evaluation of Three Machine Learning Methods DOI Open Access
Alex J. Vergara, Sivmny V. Valqui-Reina, Dennis Cieza-Tarrillo

et al.

Forests, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(2), P. 273 - 273

Published: Feb. 5, 2025

Forest fires are the result of poor land management and climate change. Depending on type affected eco-system, they can cause significant biodiversity losses. This study was conducted in Amazonas department Peru. Binary data obtained from MODIS satellite occurrence between 2010 2022 were used to build risk models. To avoid multicollinearity, 12 variables that trigger selected (Pearson ≤ 0.90) grouped into four factors: (i) topographic, (ii) social, (iii) climatic, (iv) biological. The program Rstudio three types machine learning applied: MaxENT, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random (RF). results show RF model has highest accuracy (AUC = 0.91), followed by MaxENT 0.87) SVM 0.84). In fire map elaborated with model, 38.8% region possesses a very low occurrence, 21.8% represents high-risk level zones. research will allow decision-makers improve forest Amazon prioritize prospective strategies such as installation water reservoirs areas zone. addition, it support awareness-raising actions among inhabitants at greatest so be prepared mitigate control generate solutions event occurring under different scenarios.

Language: Английский

Citations

1

Identification of the Optimal Substrate for Sexual Propagation of Cinchona officinalis L.: Implications for Conservation and Sustainable Use DOI
Fátima E. Marcelo-Bazán, Walter Mantilla-Chávez, Karla Patricia Paredes-Pajares

et al.

Forest Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 19, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Advancements in ecological niche models for forest adaptation to climate change: a comprehensive review DOI Creative Commons
Wenhuan Xu, Dawei Luo, Kate Peterson

et al.

Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 3, 2025

ABSTRACT Climate change poses significant challenges to the health and functions of forest ecosystems. Ecological niche models have emerged as crucial tools for understanding impact climate on forests at population, species, ecosystem levels. These also play a pivotal role in developing adaptive conservation management strategies. Recent advancements model development led enhanced prediction accuracy broadened applications models, driven using high‐quality data, improved algorithms, application landscape genomic information. In this review, we start by elucidating concept rationale behind context forestry adaptation change. We then provide an overview occurrence‐based, trait‐based, genomics‐based contributing more comprehensive species responses addition, summarize findings from 338 studies highlight progress made tree including data sources, future scenarios used diverse applications. To assist researchers practitioners, exemplar set accompanying source code tutorial, demonstrating integration population genetics into models. This paper aims concise yet continuous refinements serving valuable resource effectively addressing posed changing climate.

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Current and Future Spatial Distribution of the Aedes aegypti in Peru Based on Topoclimatic Analysis and Climate Change Scenarios DOI Creative Commons
Alex J. Vergara, Sivmny V. Valqui-Reina, Dennis Cieza-Tarrillo

et al.

Insects, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(5), P. 487 - 487

Published: May 2, 2025

Dengue, a febrile disease that has caused epidemics and deaths in South America, especially Peru, is vectored by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Despite seriousness of dengue fever, expanding range Ae. aegypti, future distributions vector context climate change have not yet been clearly determined. Expanding on previous findings, our study employed bioclimatic topographic variables to model both present distribution mosquito using Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The results indicate 10.23% (132,053.96 km2) 23.65% (305,253.82 Peru’s surface area possess regions with high moderate probabilities, respectively, predominantly located departments San Martín, Piura, Loreto, Lambayeque, Cajamarca, Amazonas, Cusco. Moreover, based projected scenarios, it anticipated areas probability will undergo expansion; specifically, extent these estimated increase 4.47% 2.99% years 2070 2100, under SSP2-4.5 HadGEM-GC31-LL model. Given increasing epidemic Peru recent years, seeks identify tools for effectively addressing this pressing public health concern. Consequently, research serves as foundational framework assessing highest likelihood response second half 21st century.

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Potential Distribution and Identification of Critical Areas for the Preservation and Recovery of Three Species of Cinchona L. (Rubiaceae) in Northeastern Peru DOI Open Access
Elver Coronel-Castro, Gerson Meza-Mori,

Jose M. Camarena Torres

et al.

Forests, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(2), P. 321 - 321

Published: Feb. 8, 2024

The genus Cinchona L. has important medicinal, cultural, and economic value is the emblematic tree of Peru. mainly found in cloud forests Andes. However, expansion agriculture livestock farming department Amazonas degrading these ecosystems reduced size genus’s populations. In this work, we model potential distribution under current conditions three species (C. capuli Anderson, C. macrocalyx Pav. Ex DC., pubescens Vahl.) to identify areas with a high likelihood presence their key conservation reforestation zones. We fitted maximum entropy (MaxEnt) using nineteen bioclimatic variables, topographic nine edaphic solar radiation. Under conditions, covers 17.22% (7243.98 km2); macrocalyx, 29.11% (12,238.91 pubescens, 22.94% (9647.63 km2) study area, which was mostly located central southern Amazonas. Only 24.29% (25.51% capuli, 21.02% 26.35% pubescens) distributions are within protected areas, while 10,987.22 km2 surface area degraded, 29.80% probable occurrence 38.72% 34.82% pubescens. Consequently, it necessary promote additional strategies for Cinchona, including establishment new recovery degraded habitats, order protect species.

Language: Английский

Citations

3