Runaway Climate Across the Wider Caribbean and Eastern Tropical Pacific in the Anthropocene: Threats to Coral Reef Conservation, Restoration, and Social–Ecological Resilience DOI Creative Commons
Edwin A. Hernández‐Delgado,

Yanina M. Rodríguez-González

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(5), P. 575 - 575

Published: May 11, 2025

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are increasingly affecting tropical seas, causing mass coral bleaching and mortality in the wider Caribbean (WC) eastern Pacific (ETP). This leads to significant loss, reduced biodiversity, impaired ecological functions. Climate models forecast a troubling future for Latin American reefs, but downscaled projections WC ETP remain limited. Understanding regional temperature thresholds that threaten reef futures restoration efforts is critical. Our goals included analyzing historical trends July–August–September–October (JASO) anomalies exploring at subregional country levels. From 1940 2023, JASO air ocean showed increases. Projections indicate even under optimistic scenario 4.5, temperatures may exceed +1.5 °C threshold beyond pre-industrial levels by 2040s +1.0 annual maximums 2030s, resulting severe mortality. Business-as-usual 8.5 suggests conditions will become intolerable conservation with decadal warming largely surpassing rates, unbearable corals. The immediate development of local adaptive plans, along climate change adaptation mitigation strategies, essential provide time scenarios materialize.

Language: Английский

Runaway Climate Across the Wider Caribbean and Eastern Tropical Pacific in the Anthropocene: Threats to Coral Reef Conservation, Restoration, and Social–Ecological Resilience DOI Creative Commons
Edwin A. Hernández‐Delgado,

Yanina M. Rodríguez-González

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(5), P. 575 - 575

Published: May 11, 2025

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are increasingly affecting tropical seas, causing mass coral bleaching and mortality in the wider Caribbean (WC) eastern Pacific (ETP). This leads to significant loss, reduced biodiversity, impaired ecological functions. Climate models forecast a troubling future for Latin American reefs, but downscaled projections WC ETP remain limited. Understanding regional temperature thresholds that threaten reef futures restoration efforts is critical. Our goals included analyzing historical trends July–August–September–October (JASO) anomalies exploring at subregional country levels. From 1940 2023, JASO air ocean showed increases. Projections indicate even under optimistic scenario 4.5, temperatures may exceed +1.5 °C threshold beyond pre-industrial levels by 2040s +1.0 annual maximums 2030s, resulting severe mortality. Business-as-usual 8.5 suggests conditions will become intolerable conservation with decadal warming largely surpassing rates, unbearable corals. The immediate development of local adaptive plans, along climate change adaptation mitigation strategies, essential provide time scenarios materialize.

Language: Английский

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