A Future Scenario Prediction for the Arid Inland River Basins in China Under Climate Change: A Case Study of the Manas River Basin

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(8), P. 3658 - 3658

Published: April 18, 2025

Global warming poses significant threats to agriculture, ecosystems, and human survival. This study focuses on the arid inland Manas River Basin in northwestern China, utilizing nine CMIP6 climate models five multi-model ensemble methods (including machine learning algorithms such as random forest support vector machines) evaluate historical temperature precipitation simulations (1979–2014) after bias correction via Quantile Mapping (QM). Future trends (2015–2100) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) are projected analyzed for spatiotemporal evolution. The results indicate that weighted set method (WSM) significantly improves simulation accuracy excluding poorly performing models. Under SSP1-2.6, long-term average increases maximum temperature, minimum 1.654 °C, 1.657 34.137 mm, respectively, with minimal variability. In contrast, SSP5-8.5 exhibits most pronounced warming, reaching 4.485 4.728 60.035 respectively. Notably, rise gradually surpasses indicating a shift toward warmer more humid conditions basin. Spatially, high rates concentrated low-altitude desert areas, while correlate elevation. These findings provide critical insights adaptation strategies, sustainable water resource management, ecological conservation China’s river basins future change.

Language: Английский

Assessing Watershed Flood Resilience Based on a Grid-Scale System Performance Curve That Considers Double Thresholds

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(20), P. 9101 - 9101

Published: Oct. 21, 2024

Enhancing flood resilience has become crucial for watershed prevention. However, current methods quantifying often exhibit coarse spatiotemporal granularity, leading to insufficient precision in assessments and hindering the accurate implementation of enhancement measures. This study proposes a assessment method based on system performance curve that considers thresholds inundation depth duration. A nested one- two-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic model, spanning two spatial scales, was utilized simulate processes plain river network areas with detailed complex hydraulic connections. The proposed framework applied Hangjiahu area (Taihu Basin, China). results indicated overall trend curves across different underlying surfaces initially decreased then increase, significant decline observed within 20–50 h. paddy fields forests highest, while drylands grasslands lowest, but former had less recovery ability than latter. urban systems sharply declined first 40 h showed no signs recovery, remaining at low level. In some regions, tolerance duration all land use types exceeded upper threshold. western part higher other whereas southern region lower compared northern region. terrain were main factors affecting resilience. findings this provide basis deeper understanding evolution patterns precisely guiding management projects watershed.

Language: Английский