Model-based assessment of flood generation mechanisms over Poland: The roles of precipitation, snowmelt, and soil moisture excess

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 891, P. 164626 - 164626

Published: June 5, 2023

Hydrometeorological variability, such as changes in extreme precipitation, snowmelt, or soil moisture excess, Poland can lead to fluvial flooding. In this study we employed the dataset covering components of water balance with a daily time step at sub-basin level over country for 1952-2020. The data set was derived from previously calibrated and validated Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model 4000 sub-basins. We applied Mann Kendall test circular statistics-based approach on annual maximum floods various potential flood drivers estimate trend, seasonality, relative importance each driver. addition, two sub-periods (1952-1985 1986-2020) were considered examine mechanism recent decades. show that northeast decreasing, while south trend showed positive behavior. Moreover, snowmelt is primary driver flooding across country, followed by excess precipitation. latter seemed be dominant only small, mountain-dominated region south. gained mainly northern part, suggesting spatial pattern generation mechanisms also governed other features. found strong signal climate change large parts Poland, where losing second sub-period favor which explained temperature warming diminishing role snow processes.

Language: Английский

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Enhancing generalizability of data-driven urban flood models by incorporating contextual information

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 28(24), P. 5443 - 5458

Published: Dec. 18, 2024

Abstract. Fast urban pluvial flood models are necessary for a range of applications, such as near real-time nowcasting or processing large rainfall ensembles uncertainty analysis. Data-driven can help overcome the long computational time traditional simulation models, and state-of-the-art have shown promising accuracy. Yet lack generalizability data-driven to both unseen distinctively different terrain, at fine resolution required mapping, still limits their application. These usually adopt patch-based framework multiple bottlenecks, data availability memory constraints. However, this approach does not incorporate contextual information terrain surrounding small image patch (typically 256 m×256 m). We propose new deep-learning model that maintains high-resolution local incorporates larger area increase visual field with aim enhancing models. trained tested in city Zurich (Switzerland), spatial 1 m, h events 5 min temporal resolution. demonstrate our faithfully represent depths wide events, peak intensities ranging from 42.5 161.4 mm h−1. Then, we assessed model's distinct settings, namely, Lucerne (Switzerland) Singapore. The accurately identifies locations water accumulation, which constitutes an improvement compared other Using transfer learning, was successfully retrained cities, requiring only single event adapt terrains while preserving adaptability across diverse conditions. Our results indicate by incorporating into patches, proposed effectively simulates maps, demonstrating applicability varied events.

Language: Английский

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Assessing the Effects of Urbanization on Water Flow and Flood Events Using the HEC-HMS Model in the Wirynka River Catchment, Poland

Water, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 15(1), P. 86 - 86

Published: Dec. 27, 2022

Floods are among the most devastating natural disasters in small urban watersheds resulting loss of life and enormous damage to property posing a serious threat economy. Appropriate modeling can be useful tool prevent reduce such flood risks. It is currently important use hydrological models assess predict water availability river basins due climate change develop strategy cope with changing environment. The study used an integrated approach combining geographic information system (GIS) impact urbanization on flash floods peri-urban developing areas. was carried out for two spatial aspects relating 1990 2018. model allowed simulation flow that occur under different rainfall probabilities. showed rapid adversely affects processes. Reduced infiltration capacity increases runoff, thereby increasing risk flooding or waterlogging. Therefore, it extremely properly manage rainwater area.

Language: Английский

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Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Flood Hazard Zones

Water Resources Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 39(2), P. 963 - 977

Published: Oct. 14, 2024

Abstract There have been many destructive pluvial and fluvial floods in Poland the projection of increasing flood hazards future is a reason considerable concern. The maps river hazard zones are changing over time, understanding these changes primary importance for risk reduction climate change adaptation. This article aims to assess impact on spatial extent depth classes selected reach River Warta western part Poland. To this end, we integrated Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model Basin with 1D hydraulic HEC-RAS reach. effect was quantified based coupled simulations forced bias-corrected projections from EURO-CORDEX project. Flood were developed two townships along (Oborniki Wronki), three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (one baseline scenario reference period, 1971–2000; one RCP 4.5 8.5, time horizon 2021–2050) return periods (10-, 100- 500-year floods). Based ensemble mean, increase flooded area projected more pronounced RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. unique combination software data enabled transformation into land surface cycle assessment opens way potential increases economic losses future.

Language: Английский

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A High-Resolution DEM-Based Method for Tracking Urban Pluvial–Fluvial Floods

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(7), P. 1225 - 1225

Published: March 30, 2025

Flood models based on high-resolution digital elevation (DEMs) are important for identifying urban land inundation during extreme rainfall events. Urban pluvial and fluvial floods influenced by distinct processes that interconnected; thus, they can transform into one another. Conventional flood struggle to delineate caused drainage system overflow (urban flood) rivers flood). In this study, we proposed a novel method pluvial–fluvial using DEM. We developed DEM-based surface tracking model (DEM-SPFITM) incorporated development mutual transformation processes. When combined with control (SFCM), approach enabled of the flow paths exchanged water volume associated both types. The case study results indicate effectively captures interplay between flooding, enabling separate identification extent, depth, velocity under conditions flooding. Compared conventional approach, which independently simulates flooding SFCM subsequently overlays estimate inundation, demonstrates superior accuracy computational efficiency. Simulations three rainstorms indicated primarily contributed extensive characterised shallower depths lower velocities, limited influence depth velocity. Meanwhile, further exacerbated leading significant coexistence. areas adjacent these zones, predominated, resulting in greater more pronounced effect As intensity total increased, area diminished significantly, whereas coexistence intensified was distributed zones relatively large higher velocities. This research presented distinguishing floods, providing valuable insights integrated management joint risk zoning.

Language: Английский

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Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Rainfall Events and Pluvial Flooding Risk in the Vojvodina Region (North Serbia)

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(4), P. 488 - 488

Published: April 15, 2024

Extreme precipitation events, which are common natural hazards, expected to increase in frequency due global warming, leading various types of floods, including pluvial floods. In this study, we investigated the probabilities maximum 3-day amount (Rx3day) occurrences during spring Vojvodina region, covering both past (1971–2019) and future (2020–2100) periods. We utilized an ensemble eight downscaled, bias-corrected regional climate models from EURO-CORDEX project database, selecting RCP8.5 scenario examine Rx3day amounts. The were modeled using GEV distribution, while number events where exceeds specific thresholds was Poisson distribution. results indicate that with a ten-year return period months is by 19% 33%. Additionally, having more than one event projected rise 105.6% 200.0% compared historical period. analysis comparing design values projections for 2020–2100 revealed 51 drainage systems likely function without difficulties under conditions. However, remaining 235 systems, increased risk flooding identified, as their amounts lower projections. This study reveals analyzing extreme rainfall context change yields crucial information facilitates effective planning policy making water management, particularly flood protection.

Language: Английский

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History, causes, and trend of floods in the U.S.: a review

Natural Hazards, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: July 19, 2024

Language: Английский

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A novel multi-model ensemble framework for fluvial flood inundation mapping

Environmental Modelling & Software, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 180, P. 106163 - 106163

Published: July 22, 2024

Language: Английский

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Challenges for Flood Risk Reduction in Poland’s Changing Climate

Water, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(16), P. 2912 - 2912

Published: Aug. 12, 2023

Floods are the main natural disaster in Poland, and risk of both fluvial pluvial floods is serious country. Pluvial on rise changing climate, particularly increasingly sealed urbanized areas. In this paper, we examine changes flood discussing mechanisms, observations, projections variability. Next, discuss management country, including specific issues related to urban rural areas synergies between drought reduction measures. We identify assess weaknesses existing plans Poland for first planning period 2016–2021 second 2022–2027. find level implementation former be very low. Many planned measures do not have much with but often linked other objectives, such as inland navigation. The contain numerous small measures, which come across inapt economically ineffective solutions. specify policy-relevant recommendations necessary urgent actions, which, if undertaken, could considerably reduce risk. also sketch way ahead within timeframe 2022–2027 next regular update 2028–2033.

Language: Английский

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Assessing and Mitigating Ice-Jam Flood Hazards and Risks: A European Perspective

Water, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 15(1), P. 76 - 76

Published: Dec. 26, 2022

The assessment and mapping of riverine flood hazards risks is recognized by many countries as an important tool for characterizing floods developing management plans. Often, however, these plans give attention primarily to open-water floods, with ice-jam being mostly afterthought once have been drafted. In some Nordic regions, can be more severe than floodwater levels often exceeding the same return periods. Hence, it imperative that flooding due river ice processes considered in This also pertains European member states who are required submit renewed every six years governance authorities. On 19 20 October 2022, a workshop entitled “Assessing mitigating hazard risk” was hosted Poznań, Poland explore necessity incorporating risk assessments Union’s Flood Directive. presentations given at provided good overview Europe how they may change climate future. Perspectives from Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany, were presented. Mitigation measures, particularly artificial breakage covers forecasting, shared. Advances presented workshop, including state-of-the-art developments tracking ice-floe velocities using particle velocimetry, hanging dam ice, designing new ice-control structures, detecting, monitoring composite imagery both radar optical satellite sensors, calculating stochastic modelling approach.

Language: Английский

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