Climate of the past,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
20(4), P. 951 - 968
Published: April 16, 2024
Abstract.
The
Mt
Samalas
eruption,
thought
to
have
occurred
in
summer
1257,
ranks
as
one
of
the
most
explosive
sulfur-rich
eruptions
Common
Era.
Despite
recent
convergence,
several
dates
been
proposed
for
eruption
ranging
between
1256–1258,
with,
yet,
no
single
combination
evidence
that
has
able
robustly
distinguish
and
exclude
other
eruption.
Widespread
surface
cooling
hydroclimate
perturbations
following
invoked
contributing
a
host
13th
century
social
economic
crises,
although
regional-scale
variability
post-eruption
climate
response
remains
uncertain.
In
this
study
we
run
ensemble
simulations
using
UK
Earth
System
Model
(UKESM1)
with
range
scenarios
initial
conditions
order
compare
our
complete
globally
resolved
multi-proxy
database
date,
incorporating
tree
rings,
ice
cores,
historical
records.
This
allows
more
precise
constraints
be
placed
on
year
season
well
an
investigation
into
regionally
heterogeneous
response.
Using
model
comparison,
are
July
1257
January
1258
scenarios,
where
simulation
achieves
considerably
better
agreement
spatially
averaged
proxy
temperature
reconstructions.
These
reconstructions
suggest
onset
significant
across
Asia
Europe
thus
support
plausibility
previously
inferred
connections.
Model-simulated
anomalies
also
point
severe
Southern
Hemisphere
yet
unexplored
implications
impacted
civilisations.
polar
sulfate
deposition
reveal
distinct
differences
timing
sheet
two
simulated
dates,
comparison
magnitude
or
asymmetric
aerosol
limited
by
large
inter-model
complex
intra-model
dependencies.
Overall,
employed
strong
potential
constraining
similar
uncertainties
source
parameters
which
sufficient
coincident
records
available,
care
is
needed
avoid
pitfalls
model–multi-proxy
comparison.
Atmospheric chemistry and physics,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
24(9), P. 5513 - 5548
Published: May 14, 2024
Abstract.
A
growing
number
of
general
circulation
models
are
adapting
interactive
sulfur
and
aerosol
schemes
to
improve
the
representation
relevant
physical
chemical
processes
associated
feedbacks.
They
motivated
by
investigations
climate
response
major
volcanic
eruptions
potential
solar
geoengineering
scenarios.
However,
uncertainties
in
these
not
well
constrained.
Stratospheric
sulfate
is
modulated
emissions
sulfur-containing
species
anthropogenic
natural
origin,
including
activity.
While
effects
have
been
studied
framework
global
model
intercomparisons,
background
conditions
cycle
addressed
such
a
way.
Here,
we
fill
this
gap
analyzing
distribution
main
nine
atmospheric
for
volcanically
quiescent
period.
We
use
observational
data
evaluate
results.
Overall,
agree
that
three
dominant
terms
burdens
(sulfate
aerosol,
OCS,
SO2)
make
up
about
98
%
stratospheric
95
tropospheric
sulfur.
vary
considerably
partitioning
between
species.
Models
emission
SO2
strongly
affects
burden
northern
hemispheric
troposphere,
while
its
importance
very
uncertain
other
regions,
where
much
lower.
Sulfate
deposited
all
models,
but
values
deviate
factor
2.
Additionally,
wet
dry
deposition
fluxes
highly
dependent.
Inter-model
variability
low
tropics
increases
towards
poles.
Differences
largest
dynamically
active
extratropical
region
could
be
attributed
circulation.
The
differences
budget
among
arise
from
both
dynamical
processes,
whose
interplay
complicates
bias
attribution.
Several
problematic
points
identified
individual
related
specifics
chemistry
schemes,
resolution,
cross-tropopause
transport
extratropics.
Further
intercomparison
research
needed
with
focus
on
clarification
reasons
biases,
given
topic
injection
studies.
Geoscientific model development,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
17(10), P. 4181 - 4197
Published: May 22, 2024
Abstract.
Solar
radiation
modification
by
a
sustained
deliberate
source
of
SO2
into
the
stratosphere
(strat-SRM)
has
been
proposed
as
an
option
for
climate
intervention.
Global
interactive
aerosol–chemistry–climate
models
are
often
used
to
investigate
potential
cooling
efficiencies
and
associated
side
effects
hypothesized
strat-SRM
scenarios.
A
recent
model
intercomparison
study
composition–climate
with
stratospheric
aerosol
suggests
that
modeled
response
particular
assumed
injection
strategy
depends
on
type
microphysical
scheme
(e.g.,
modal
or
sectional
representation)
alongside
host
resolution
transport.
Compared
short-duration
volcanic
emissions,
continuous
injections
in
scenarios
may
pose
greater
challenge
numerical
implementation
processes
such
nucleation,
condensation,
coagulation.
This
explores
how
changing
time
steps
sequencing
SOCOL-AERv2
(40
mass
bins)
affects
model-predicted
ozone
layer
impacts
considering
5
25
Tg(S)
yr−1
at
20
km
altitude
between
30°
S
N.
The
experiments
consider
year
2040
be
boundary
conditions
ozone-depleting
substances
greenhouse
gases
(GHGs).
We
focus
length
step
call
sequence
nucleation
two
competing
sink
gaseous
H2SO4.
Under
background
conditions,
we
find
no
effect
setup
simulated
properties.
However,
high
sulfur
loadings
reached
injecting
default
6
min,
from
“condensation
first”
“nucleation
leads
massive
increase
number
densities
particles
mode
(R<0.01
µm)
small
decrease
coarse-mode
(R>1
µm).
As
expected,
influence
becomes
negligible
when
is
reduced
few
seconds,
solutions
converging
size
distribution
pronounced
mode.
While
main
features
spatial
patterns
forcing
not
strongly
affected
configuration,
absolute
numbers
vary
considerably.
For
extreme
yr−1,
net
global
radiative
ranges
−2.3
−5.3
W
m−2,
depending
configuration.
Nucleation
first
shifts
towards
radii
better
suited
solar
scattering
(0.3
µm
<R<
0.4
µm),
enhancing
intervention
efficiency.
shift,
however,
generates
more
ultrafine
particles,
increasing
surface
area
density
resulting
10
DU
(Dobson
units)
less
(about
3
%
total
column)
northern
mid-latitudes
(6
%)
over
polar
caps
compared
condensation
approach.
Our
results
suggest
reasonably
short
2
min
must
applied
accurately
capture
magnitude
H2SO4
supersaturation
eruptions.
Taken
together,
these
underscore
structural
aspects
representation
become
important
under
elevated
determining
atmospheric
chemistry
impacts.
Atmospheric chemistry and physics,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
24(10), P. 6233 - 6249
Published: May 28, 2024
Abstract.
Volcanic
eruptions
impact
the
climate
and
environment.
The
volcanic
forcing
is
determined
by
eruption
source
parameters,
including
mass
composition
of
volatiles,
season,
latitude,
injection
altitude.
Moreover,
initial
atmospheric
conditions
system
play
an
important
role
in
shaping
response.
However,
our
understanding
combination
these
factors,
distinctions
between
tropical
extratropical
eruptions,
co-injection
sulfur
halogens
remains
limited.
Here,
we
perform
ensemble
simulations
at
15
64°
N
January,
injecting
17
Mt
SO2
together
with
HCl
HBr
24
km
Our
findings
reveal
that
control
transport
volatiles
from
first
month
modulate
subsequent
latitudinal
distribution
sulfate
aerosols
halogens.
This
results
different
forcing,
surface
temperature
ozone
responses
over
globe
Northern
Hemisphere
extratropics
(NHET)
among
model
members
conditions.
NH
exhibit
a
larger
NHET
mean
cooling
depletion
compared
eruptions.
lead
to
more
prolonged
impacts
both
globally
NHET.
sensitivity
varying
parameters
dependency
discussed,
emphasizing
need
for
future
multi-model
studies
consider
influence
on
impacts.
Environmental Research Climate,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
3(3), P. 035012 - 035012
Published: May 29, 2024
Abstract
Stratospheric
aerosol
injection
(SAI)
would
involve
the
addition
of
sulfate
aerosols
in
stratosphere
to
reflect
part
incoming
solar
radiation,
thereby
cooling
climate.
Studies
trying
explore
impacts
SAI
have
often
focused
on
idealized
scenarios
without
explicitly
introducing
what
we
call
‘inconsistencies’
a
deployment.
A
concern
discussed
is
happen
climate
system
after
an
abrupt
termination
its
deployment,
whether
inadvertent
or
deliberate.
However,
there
much
wider
range
plausible
inconsistencies
deployment
than
that
should
be
evaluated
better
understand
associated
risks.
In
this
work,
simulate
few
representative
pre-existing
scenario:
termination,
decade-long
gradual
phase-out,
and
1
year
2
temporary
interruptions
After
examining
their
impacts,
use
these
simulations
train
emulator,
project
global
mean
temperature
response
for
broader
set
Our
work
highlights
capacity
finite
simulated
include
inform
emulator
capable
expanding
space
one
might
want
far
more
quickly
efficiently.
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
15(5)
Published: May 1, 2023
Abstract
Stratospheric
injections
of
sulfur
dioxide
from
major
volcanic
eruptions
perturb
the
Earth's
global
radiative
balance
and
dominate
variability
in
stratospheric
loading.
The
atmospheric
component
GFDL
Earth
System
Model
(ESM4.1)
uses
a
bulk
aerosol
scheme
previously
prescribed
distribution
optical
properties
stratosphere.
To
quantify
contributions
to
cycle
resulting
climate
impact,
we
modified
ESM4.1
simulate
sulfate
aerosols
prognostically.
Driven
by
explicit
emissions
precursors
non‐volcanic
sources,
conduct
simulations
1989
2014,
with
focus
on
Mt.
Pinatubo
eruption.
We
evaluate
our
interactive
representation
against
data
Moderate
Resolution
Imaging
Spectroradiometer,
Multi‐angle
SpectroRadiometer,
Advanced
Very
High
Radiometer,
Infrared
Radiation
Sounder,
Aerosol
Gas
Experiment
II.
assess
key
processes
associated
aerosols,
performed
sensitivity
analysis
burden
eruption
varying
injection
heights,
emission
amount,
sulfate's
dry
effective
radius.
find
that
simulated
mass
depth
model
are
sensitive
these
parameters,
especially
SO
2
height,
optimal
combination
parameters
depends
metric
evaluate.
Earth s Future,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
11(5)
Published: May 1, 2023
Stratospheric
aerosol
injection
(SAI)
is
a
proposed
form
of
climate
intervention
that
would
release
reflective
particles
into
the
stratosphere,
thereby
reducing
solar
insolation
and
cooling
planet.
The
response
to
SAI
not
well
understood,
particularly
on
short-term
time
horizons
frequently
used
by
decision-makers
planning
practitioners
assess
information.
We
demonstrate
two
framings
explore
in
decade
after
deployment
modeling
experiments
with
parallel
no-SAI
simulations.
first
framing,
which
we
call
snapshot
around
deployment,
displays
change
over
within
scenarios
applies
question
"What
happens
before
deployed
model?"
second
impact,
difference
between
simulations,
corresponding
impact
given
relative
no
intervention?"
apply
these
annual
mean
2
m
temperature,
precipitation,
precipitation
extreme
during
10
yr
large
ensembles
Earth
system
model
simulations
comprehensively
represent
both
process
response,
connect
results
implications
for
other
variables.
show
robustly
reduces
changes
many
high-impact
variables
even
short
timescales
where
forced
relatively
small,
but
details
depend
version,
greenhouse
gas
emissions
scenario,
aspects
experimental
design.
Atmospheric chemistry and physics,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
25(1), P. 535 - 553
Published: Jan. 16, 2025
Abstract.
The
Global
Space-based
Stratospheric
Aerosol
Climatology
(GloSSAC)
is
essential
for
understanding
and
modeling
the
climatic
impacts
of
stratospheric
aerosols.
It
relies
primarily
on
data
from
Gas
Experiment
(SAGE)
satellite
series,
supplemented
by
Optical
Spectrograph
Infrared
Imaging
System
(OSIRIS)
Cloud-Aerosol
Lidar
Pathfinder
Satellite
Observations
(CALIPSO).
GloSSAC
currently
provides
aerosol
extinction
coefficients
optical
depths
at
525
1020
nm.
With
CALIPSO
decommissioned
OSIRIS
nearing
end
its
operational
life,
SAGE
III/ISS
(International
Space
Station)
will
soon
become
sole
source
GloSSAC,
but
it
only
be
available
as
long
ISS
operational,
until
around
2030.
Therefore,
incorporating
other
measurements,
such
those
Ozone
Mapping
Profiler
Suite
Limb
(OMPS-LP),
critical.
OMPS-LP
has
provided
continuous
coefficient
measurements
since
2012
with
a
retrieval
algorithm
developed
NASA,
i.e.,
OMPS(NASA).
However,
OMPS(NASA)
been
shown
to
overestimate
coefficients,
particularly
after
2022
Hunga
Tonga
eruption,
compared
tomographic
OMPS
University
Saskatchewan
(OMPS(SASK))
III/ISS.
Our
analysis
shows
that
indeed
exhibits
consistently
high
bias
(>50
%)
following
large
volcanic
eruptions
pyrocumulonimbus
plumes
intense
wildfires,
while
OMPS(SASK)
reasonable
agreement
between
40°
S
N.
This
overestimation
leads
an
effective
radiative
forcing
(ERF)
associated
model-simulated
global
surface
temperature
response
factor
about
2.
Frontiers in Climate,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
7
Published: Feb. 5, 2025
It
is
increasingly
evident
that
maintaining
global
warming
at
levels
below
those
agreed
in
the
legally
binding
international
treaty
on
climate
change.
i.e.,
Paris
Agreement,
going
to
be
extremely
challenging
using
conventional
mitigation
techniques.
While
future
scenarios
of
change
frequently
include
extensive
use
terrestrial
and
marine
carbon
dioxide
removal
second
part
21st
century,
it
unproven
these
techniques
can
scaled-up
reach
scale
required
significantly
reduce
concentrations
atmospheric
significant
uncertainties
detrimental
side-effects
exist.
These
issues
have
led
increasing
interest
so-called
“Solar
Radiation
Modification”
whereby
mean
temperature
Earth
reduced
by
either
blocking
a
small
fraction
sunlight
from
reaching
or
Earth’s
albedo
reflect
proportion
incident
back
out
space.
Here
we
systematically
identify
key
research
gaps
associated
with
two
most
prominent
Solar
Modification
techniques,
Stratospheric
Aerosol
Injection
(SAI)
Marine
Cloud
Brightening
(MCB).
We
provide
an
assessment
other
less
SRM
assert
transparency
inclusivity
essential
providing
objective
impartial
findings
each
every
stakeholder
equitable
way.
Atmospheric chemistry and physics,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
25(6), P. 3623 - 3634
Published: March 27, 2025
Abstract.
The
January
2022
Hunga
Tonga–Hunga
Ha’apai
(HT)
eruption
injected
sulfur
dioxide
and
unprecedented
amounts
of
water
vapour
(WV)
into
the
stratosphere.
Given
manifold
impacts
previous
volcanic
eruptions,
full
implications
these
emissions
are
a
topic
active
research.
This
study
explores
dynamical
perturbed
upper-atmospheric
composition
using
an
ensemble
simulation
with
Earth
system
model
SOCOLv4.
simulations
replicate
observed
anomalies
in
stratospheric
lower-mesospheric
chemical
reveal
novel
pathway
linking
water-rich
eruptions
to
surface
climate
anomalies.
We
show
that
early
2023
excess
WV
caused
significant
negative
tropical
upper-stratospheric
mesospheric
ozone
temperature,
forcing
atmospheric
circulation
response
particularly
affected
Northern
Hemisphere
polar
vortex
(PV).
decreased
temperature
gradient
leads
weakening
PV,
which
propagates
downward
similarly
sudden
warmings
(SSWs)
drives
via
stratosphere–troposphere
coupling.
These
results
underscore
potential
HT
create
favorable
conditions
for
SSWs
subsequent
winters
as
long
near-stratopause
cooling
effect
persists.
Our
findings
highlight
complex
interactions
between
activity
dynamics
offer
crucial
insights
future
modelling
attribution.
Atmospheric chemistry and physics,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
25(6), P. 3821 - 3839
Published: April 2, 2025
Abstract.
The
amount
of
time
that
volcanic
aerosols
spend
in
the
stratosphere
is
one
primary
factors
influencing
climate
impact
eruptions.
Stratospheric
aerosol
persistence
has
been
described
different
ways,
with
many
works
quoting
an
approximately
12-month
“residence
time”
for
from
large
tropical
Here,
we
aim
to
develop
a
framework
describing
evolution
global
stratospheric
after
major
eruptions
and
quantifying
its
persistence,
based
on
satellite-based
observations,
tracer
transport
simulations,
simple
conceptual
modelling.
We
show
residence
air,
which
estimated
through
passive
pulse
experiments
factor
lifetime
aerosols,
strongly
dependent
injection
latitude
height,
especially
strong
sensitivity
height
first
4
km
above
tropopause.
Simulated
best
by
model
includes
lag
between
initiation
removal
stratosphere.
Based
analysis
1991
Pinatubo
eruption
22
months.
estimate
potential
observational
uncertainties
this
lifetime,
finding
it
unlikely
less
than
18