Climate science for 2050 DOI Creative Commons
Guy Brasseur, Detlef Stammer,

Pierre Friedlingstein

et al.

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 7

Published: May 15, 2025

Knowledge of the functioning climate system, including physical, dynamical and biogeochemical feedback processes expected to occur in response anthropogenic forcing, has increased substantially over recent decades. Today, science is at a crossroads, with new urgent demands arising from needs society deal future change, need for community refine its strategic goals meet these rapidly. All possible—but currently unknown—worlds 2050, larger global population, unprecedented conditions higher temperatures, more frequent extreme weather events, sea level rise, disrupted ecosystems, changes habitability climate-induced displacement migration, emergence geopolitical tensions, will require limiting society’s vulnerability both through mitigation measures minimize further warming implementation innovative adaptation initiatives. The development skillful information based on most advanced Earth system science, be required inform decision-makers public around world about local remote impacts guide them optimizing their agendas. This also help manage renewable resources warmer strengthen resilience interconnected change. In this paper, we summarize major advances needed understand multiscale dynamics system. We highlight develop an integrated accessible citizens all parts world, present some key scientific questions that addressed decisions adaptation. Finally, speculate values ethics nature research increasingly affected by context very different

Language: Английский

Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024 DOI Creative Commons
Lijing Cheng, John Abraham, Kevin E. Trenberth

et al.

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 10, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

6
A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit DOI Creative Commons
Emanuele Bevacqua, Carl-Friedrich Schleußner, Jakob Zscheischler

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 10, 2025

Abstract The temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are measured as 20-year averages exceeding a pre-industrial baseline. calendar year 2024 was announced first above 1.5 °C relative to levels, but implications for corresponding goal unclear. Here we show that, without very stringent climate mitigation, occurs within period with an average warming °C.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
El Niño and Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Effects Lead to Historically High Global Mean Surface Temperatures in 2023 DOI Creative Commons
Ning Jiang, Congwen Zhu, Zeng‐Zhen Hu

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 52(2)

Published: Jan. 21, 2025

Abstract In 2023, the world experienced its highest ever global mean surface temperature (GMST). Our study underscores pivotal significance of El Niño and sea (SST) warming as fundamental causes. Interannually, increment GMST in 2023 comprised two phases: first, gradual ocean associated with North Atlantic from January to August; second, a continued rise land temperatures mid‐to‐high latitude regions September onwards, influenced by SST patterns. Notably, maturation prolonged America through excitation Pacific‐North American teleconnection. During most recent 15 years, has entered an accelerated period, primarily driven rapid trends tropical Indian Ocean, Atlantic, subtropical Pacific, Atlantic. These decadal patterns, combined Niño, may further increase GMST, particularly striking example.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected DOI Creative Commons
Jens Terhaar, Friedrich A. Burger, Linus Vogt

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 12, 2025

Abstract Global ocean surface temperatures were at record levels for more than a year from April 2023 onwards, exceeding the previous in 2015–2016 by 0.25 °C on average between and March 2024 1 . The nearly global extent unprecedented intensity of this event prompted questions about how exceptional it was whether climate models can represent such record-shattering jumps 2 Here we construct observation-based synthetic time series to show that jump sea breaks least is 1-in-512-year under current long-term warming trend (1-in-205-year 1-in-1,185-year event; 95% confidence interval). Without trend, an would have been practically impossible. Using 270 simulations wide range fully coupled models, these successfully simulate temperatures, underpinning models’ usefulness understanding characteristics, drivers consequences events. These model suggest 2023–2024 extreme after which are expected revert trend.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
What made 2023 and 2024 the hottest years in a row? DOI Creative Commons
Shang‐Ping Xie, Ayumu Miyamoto, Pengcheng Zhang

et al.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: March 22, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Global and regional drivers for exceptional climate extremes in 2023-2024: beyond the new normal DOI Creative Commons
Shoshiro Minobe, Erik Behrens, Kirsten L. Findell

et al.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: April 7, 2025

Abstract Climate records have been broken with alarming regularity in recent years, but the events of 2023–2024 were exceptional even when accounting for climatic trends. Here we quantify these across multiple variables and show how excess energy accumulation Earth system drove conditions. Key factors positive decadal trend Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI), persistent La Niña conditions beginning 2020, switch to El Niño 2023. Between 2022 2023, heating from EEI was over 75% larger than during onset similar events. We further regional processes shaped distinct patterns record-breaking sea surface temperatures individual ocean basins. If is maintained, argue that natural fluctuations such as ENSO cycles will increasingly lead amplified, impacts, serving a glimpse future climate extremes.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
El Niño was a key driver of anomalous ocean warming in Southeast Asia in 2023 DOI Creative Commons
Fangyi Tan, Dhrubajyoti Samanta,

Kyle Morgan

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: May 8, 2025

Abstract In 2023, global ocean heat content reached unprecedented values since records began in 1960. The translation of into regional and local-scale warming remains poorly understood because limited observational data, particularly within Southeast Asia. Here, we investigate the 2023 event Asia using near-continuous 41-month in-situ temperature observations from Singapore Strait, satellite sea surface (SST) measurements, high-resolution reanalysis products. We document anomalous across Strait surrounding South China Sea Indonesian Seas to depths at least 40 m. Peak SSTs 1.8 °C above climatological mean were recorded central Sunda Shelf November for first time > years. Concurrent freshening was observed, with average salinity below October December. identify a southward migration warm anomalies beginning onset El Niño July near Luzon Strait. This occurred alongside shifts sea-level pressure near-surface currents region. attribute these shift North Equatorial Current bifurcation latitude, which permitted intrusion Pacific western boundary seas. Compared oceanic drivers, atmospheric forcings played role driving 2023. Our study highlights as key driver emphasises need expanded continuous, monitoring enhance understanding evolving ocean-atmosphere dynamics impacts under climate.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Climate science for 2050 DOI Creative Commons
Guy Brasseur, Detlef Stammer,

Pierre Friedlingstein

et al.

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 7

Published: May 15, 2025

Knowledge of the functioning climate system, including physical, dynamical and biogeochemical feedback processes expected to occur in response anthropogenic forcing, has increased substantially over recent decades. Today, science is at a crossroads, with new urgent demands arising from needs society deal future change, need for community refine its strategic goals meet these rapidly. All possible—but currently unknown—worlds 2050, larger global population, unprecedented conditions higher temperatures, more frequent extreme weather events, sea level rise, disrupted ecosystems, changes habitability climate-induced displacement migration, emergence geopolitical tensions, will require limiting society’s vulnerability both through mitigation measures minimize further warming implementation innovative adaptation initiatives. The development skillful information based on most advanced Earth system science, be required inform decision-makers public around world about local remote impacts guide them optimizing their agendas. This also help manage renewable resources warmer strengthen resilience interconnected change. In this paper, we summarize major advances needed understand multiscale dynamics system. We highlight develop an integrated accessible citizens all parts world, present some key scientific questions that addressed decisions adaptation. Finally, speculate values ethics nature research increasingly affected by context very different

Language: Английский

Citations

0