Adaptive behavior of farmers under consecutive droughts results in more vulnerable farmers: a large-scale agent-based modeling analysis in the Bhima basin, India DOI Creative Commons
Maurice Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel

et al.

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(3), P. 1013 - 1035

Published: March 6, 2025

Abstract. Consecutive droughts, becoming more likely, produce impacts beyond the sum of individual events by altering catchment hydrology and influencing farmers' adaptive responses. We use Geographical, Environmental, Behavioural (GEB) model, a coupled agent-based hydrological expand it with subjective expected utility theory (SEUT) to simulate farmer behavior subsequent interactions. apply GEB analyze responses ∼1.4 million heterogeneous farmers in India's Bhima basin over consecutive droughts compare scenarios without adaptation. In scenarios, can either do nothing, switch crops, or dig wells, based on each action's utility. Our analysis examines how these adaptations affect profits, yields, groundwater levels, considering, e.g., farm size, risk aversion, drought perception. Results indicate that decrease vulnerability impact after one (6 times yield loss reduction) but increase them periods due switching water-intensive crops homogeneous cultivation (+15 % decline income). Moreover, patterns, vulnerability, vary spatiotemporally between individuals. Lastly, ecological social shocks coincide plummet incomes. recommend alternative additional wells mitigate emphasize importance socio-hydrological models (ABMs) for policy testing.

Language: Английский

Adaptive behavior of farmers under consecutive droughts results in more vulnerable farmers: a large-scale agent-based modeling analysis in the Bhima basin, India DOI Creative Commons
Maurice Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel

et al.

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(3), P. 1013 - 1035

Published: March 6, 2025

Abstract. Consecutive droughts, becoming more likely, produce impacts beyond the sum of individual events by altering catchment hydrology and influencing farmers' adaptive responses. We use Geographical, Environmental, Behavioural (GEB) model, a coupled agent-based hydrological expand it with subjective expected utility theory (SEUT) to simulate farmer behavior subsequent interactions. apply GEB analyze responses ∼1.4 million heterogeneous farmers in India's Bhima basin over consecutive droughts compare scenarios without adaptation. In scenarios, can either do nothing, switch crops, or dig wells, based on each action's utility. Our analysis examines how these adaptations affect profits, yields, groundwater levels, considering, e.g., farm size, risk aversion, drought perception. Results indicate that decrease vulnerability impact after one (6 times yield loss reduction) but increase them periods due switching water-intensive crops homogeneous cultivation (+15 % decline income). Moreover, patterns, vulnerability, vary spatiotemporally between individuals. Lastly, ecological social shocks coincide plummet incomes. recommend alternative additional wells mitigate emphasize importance socio-hydrological models (ABMs) for policy testing.

Language: Английский

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