FROT: A Framework to comprehensively describe radiative contributions to temperature responses DOI Creative Commons
Estela A. Monteiro, Yona Silvy, D. Höhn

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 19(12), P. 124012 - 124012

Published: Oct. 17, 2024

Abstract Different human activities and associated emissions of CO 2 non-CO radiative forcing agents feedbacks determine the final state Earth’s climate. To understand explain contributions to global temperature changes, many emission-based metrics have been employed, such as -equivalent or -forcing equivalent. None these metrics, however, include dynamic responses from Earth system in terms carbon heat redistribution, known play an increasingly important role ambitious mitigation scenarios. Here we introduce a framework that allows for assessment addition , anthropogenic natural external variability contributions. FROT (Framework Radiative cOntributions Temperature response) components direct impact (climate forcing), well concerning carbon. The is versatile applications exploring individual to, example, stabilisation simulations, comparisons different models scenarios, it can reasonably their simulated variability. Here, apply both intermediate complexity fully coupled model, simulate highly Comparing show net-zero small amounts positive could lead stable trajectory. Our reveals effects climate forcings, especially development sulphate aerosols atmosphere, dynamics cycle, pivotal level warming enabling stabilisation. Under scenarios becomes crucial feedbacks, specifically ocean uptake, interannual decadal development, since previously secondary processes now become dominant. offers opportunity do so.

Language: Английский

Overconfidence in climate overshoot DOI Creative Commons
Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner, Gaurav Ganti, Quentin Lejeune

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 634(8033), P. 366 - 373

Published: Oct. 9, 2024

Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient meet the temperature goal of Paris Agreement

Language: Английский

Citations

30
The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7 DOI Creative Commons
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben Booth, John P. Dunne

et al.

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 17(22), P. 8141 - 8172

Published: Nov. 19, 2024

Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development Earth system detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented diverse, process-resolving models (ESMs) is not manifested in scenario outcomes, thus omitting a dominant source meeting Paris Agreement. Mitigation policy defined terms human activity (including emissions), with strategies varying their timing net-zero emissions, balance mitigation effort between short-lived long-lived forcers, reliance land use strategy, extent removals. To explore response these drivers, ESMs need explicitly represent complete cycles major GHGs, including natural processes anthropogenic influences. Carbon removal sequestration strategies, which rely proposed management systems, are currently calculated integrated assessment (IAMs) during only net passed ESM. However, proper accounting coupled impacts feedback such interventions requires explicit process representation build self-consistent physical representations potential effectiveness risks under change. propose CMIP7 efforts prioritize CO2 from fossil fuel projected deployment dioxide technologies, well management, using resolution allowed state-of-the-art resolve carbon–climate feedbacks. Post-CMIP7 ambitions should aim incorporate modeling non-CO2 GHGs (in particular, sources sinks methane nitrous oxide) process-based options. These developments will three primary benefits: (1) resources be allocated policy-relevant better real-time information related detectability verification reductions relationship expected near-term impacts, (2) range possible future states feedbacks increasingly well-represented ESMs, (3) optimal utilization strengths wider context infrastructure (which includes simple models, machine learning approaches kilometer-scale models).

Language: Английский

Citations

12
AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization DOI Creative Commons
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar

et al.

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(6), P. 1591 - 1628

Published: Dec. 18, 2024

Abstract. While international climate policies now focus on limiting global warming to well below 2 °C or pursuing a 1.5 level of warming, the modelling community has not provided an experimental design in which all Earth system models (ESMs) converge and stabilize at same prescribed levels. This gap hampers accurate estimations based comprehensive ESMs carbon emission pathways budgets needed meet such agreed levels associated impacts under temperature stabilization. Here, we apply Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA) with provide simulations 2.0 by adjusting their emissions over time. These emission-driven wide range resulting atmospheric CO2 projections for given level, uncovering uncertainty ranges that were previously missing traditional Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) scenarios greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Meeting requires 40 % (full model range: 7 76 %) reduction multi-model mean CO2-forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) from 2025 2030, 98 (57 127 2050, stabilization 1.0 (−1.7 2.9) PgC yr−1 2100 onward after is reached. 47 (8 92 CO2-fe until 2050 1.7 (−1.5 2.7) onward. The on-average positive stabilized temperatures are result decreasing transient response cumulative time warming. evolution consistent slightly negative zero commitment – initially assumed be leads increase post-2025 budget factor 2.2 (−0.8 6.9) 2150 1.4 (0.9 2.4) compared its first estimate 2025. median CO2-only 2150, relative 2020, 800 GtCO2 2250 level. values exceed IPCC AR6 estimates 60 67 °C. Some differences may explained choice mitigation scenario non-CO2 radiative agents. Our highlight shifts uptake dynamics temperature, as cessation sinks North Atlantic tropical forests. On other hand, Southern Ocean remains sink centuries stabilize. Overall, this new type warming-level-based simulation offers more coherent assessment across opens up possibilities studying both cycle impacts, extreme events,

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Drivers of decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink in the past, present, and future in Earth system models DOI Creative Commons
Jens Terhaar

Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 21(17), P. 3903 - 3926

Published: Sept. 4, 2024

Abstract. The ocean and the land biosphere are two major sinks of anthropogenic carbon at present. When emissions become zero temperatures stabilize, is projected to dominant only global natural sink carbon. Despite ocean's importance for cycle hence climate, uncertainties about decadal variability in this underlying drivers remain large because observing detecting changes over time challenging. main tools that used provide annually resolved estimates last decades observation-based pCO2 products extrapolate sparse observations space biogeochemical models forced with atmospheric reanalysis data. However, these (i) limited 3 7 decades, which hinders statistical analyses trends; (ii) all based on same internal climate state, makes it impossible separate externally internally contributions (iii) cannot assess robustness future, especially when decline or cease entirely. Here, I use an ensemble 12 Earth system (ESMs) from phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) understand trends past, present, future sink. simulations by ESMs span period 1850 2100 include four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), low high mitigation mitigation. Using ensemble, show 80 % can be explained CO2 as long remains smaller than 4.5 Pg C yr−1. remaining 20 due heat uptake, result a loss ocean. exceeds yr−1, occurs high-emission SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5, rises faster, change accelerates, overturning chemical capacity take up atmosphere reduce, so substantially estimated trends. breakdown relationship both pathways also implies increase effectively ∼1 yr−1 dec−1 pathways, even if trend continues increase. Previously proposed drivers, such growth rate CO2, explain specific periods, example, during exponential growth, but fail start decrease again. robust suggests very positive negative some highly unlikely around 2000 likely products.

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Persistently Elevated High‐Latitude Ocean Temperatures and Global Sea Level Following Temporary Temperature Overshoots DOI Creative Commons
Fabrice Lacroix, Friedrich A. Burger, Yona Silvy

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(10)

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

Abstract As exceeding the 1.5°C level of global warming is likely to happen in near future, understanding response ocean‐climate system temporarily overshooting this critical importance. Here, we apply Adaptive Emissions Reduction Approach Earth System Model GFDL‐ESM2M conduct novel overshoot scenarios that reach 2.0, 2.5 and 3.0°C before returning over time period 1861–2500. We also perform a complementary scenario stabilizes temperature at 1.5°C, allowing isolate impacts caused by overshoots alone, both during their peaks after reversals. The simulations indicate substantial residual ocean surface persists high latitudes overshoots, with most notable regional anomalies occurring North Atlantic (up +3.1°C 3°C compared stabilization scenario) Southern Ocean (+1.2°C). primarily driven recoveries meridional overturning circulation associated increases heat transport. Excess subsurface storage low mid‐latitudes prevents steric sea rise (SLR) from reverting levels any scenario, remaining up 32% higher on centennial scales. Both peak persistent changes reversal bear significant implications for future assessments coastlines, climates, marine ecosystems, ice sheets.

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information DOI
Peter Pfleiderer, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chahan M. Kropf

et al.

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 3, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Persistent High-Latitude Ocean Warming and Global Sea Level Rise Following Temporary Overshoots DOI Creative Commons
Fabrice Lacroix, Friedrich A. Burger, Yona Silvy

et al.

Authorea (Authorea), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: May 16, 2024

As the likelihood of temporarily exceeding 1.5 °C global warming rises, understanding response ocean-climate system to overshooting this level is increasing importance. Here, we apply Adaptive Emissions Reduction Approach Earth System Model GFDL-ESM2M conduct novel overshoot scenarios which exceed 2.0, 2.5 and 3.0 °C, alongside a complementary scenario that stabilizes temperature at °C. The simulation framework allows isolate impacts attributable overshoots alone, both during their peaks after reversals, in timeframes spanning from 1861 2500. Our results reveal that, while sea surface temperatures eventually retrace stabilization levels, substantial residual ocean persists regionally, particularly North Atlantic (regional average up +3.1 3°C scenario) Southern Ocean (+1.2 °C). primarily attributed recoveries meridional overturning circulation, resulting reversed pattern disproportionate low-latitude oceans found transient peak overshoot. Excess subsurface heat storage low mid-latitudes furthermore prevents steric rise reverting levels any scenario, with remaining 32 % higher 3 scenario. Both persistent changes following reversal bear significant implications for future assessments coastlines, regional climates, marine ecosystems, ice sheets.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
FROT: A Framework to comprehensively describe radiative contributions to temperature responses DOI Creative Commons
Estela A. Monteiro, Yona Silvy, D. Höhn

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 19(12), P. 124012 - 124012

Published: Oct. 17, 2024

Abstract Different human activities and associated emissions of CO 2 non-CO radiative forcing agents feedbacks determine the final state Earth’s climate. To understand explain contributions to global temperature changes, many emission-based metrics have been employed, such as -equivalent or -forcing equivalent. None these metrics, however, include dynamic responses from Earth system in terms carbon heat redistribution, known play an increasingly important role ambitious mitigation scenarios. Here we introduce a framework that allows for assessment addition , anthropogenic natural external variability contributions. FROT (Framework Radiative cOntributions Temperature response) components direct impact (climate forcing), well concerning carbon. The is versatile applications exploring individual to, example, stabilisation simulations, comparisons different models scenarios, it can reasonably their simulated variability. Here, apply both intermediate complexity fully coupled model, simulate highly Comparing show net-zero small amounts positive could lead stable trajectory. Our reveals effects climate forcings, especially development sulphate aerosols atmosphere, dynamics cycle, pivotal level warming enabling stabilisation. Under scenarios becomes crucial feedbacks, specifically ocean uptake, interannual decadal development, since previously secondary processes now become dominant. offers opportunity do so.

Language: Английский

Citations

0