Climate Change Risks to Global Forest Health: Emergence of Unexpected Events of Elevated Tree Mortality Worldwide

Annual Review of Plant Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 73(1), P. 673 - 702

Published: March 1, 2022

Recent observations of elevated tree mortality following climate extremes, like heat and drought, raise concerns about change risks to global forest health. We currently lack both sufficient data understanding identify whether these represent a trend toward increasing mortality. Here, we document events sudden unexpected drought in ecosystems that previously were considered tolerant or not at risk exposure. These underscore the fact may affect forests with force future. use as examples highlight current difficulties challenges for realistically predicting such uncertainties future condition. Advances remote sensing technology greater availably high-resolution data, from field assessments satellites, are needed improve prediction responses change. Expected final online publication date Annual Review Plant Biology, Volume 73 is May 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates revised estimates.

Language: Английский

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Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 235, P. 104241 - 104241

Published: Nov. 8, 2022

Language: Английский

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Evidence and attribution of the enhanced land carbon sink

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(8), P. 518 - 534

Published: July 25, 2023

Language: Английский

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Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: April 14, 2023

Societally relevant weather impacts typically result from compound events, which are rare combinations of and climate drivers. Focussing on four event types arising different variables across space time, here we illustrate that robust analyses events - such as frequency uncertainty analysis under present-day future conditions, attribution to change, exploration low-probability-high-impact require data with very large sample size. In particular, the required is much larger than needed for univariate extremes. We demonstrate Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) simulations multiple models, provide hundreds thousands years crucial advancing our assessments constructing model projections. Combining SMILEs an improved physical understanding will ultimately practitioners stakeholders best available information risks.

Language: Английский

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The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 23(5), P. 1699 - 1718

Published: May 8, 2023

Abstract. The summer of 2018 was an extraordinary season in climatological terms for northern and central Europe, bringing simultaneous, widespread, concurrent heat drought extremes large parts the continent with extensive impacts on agriculture, forests, water supply, socio-economic sector. Here, we present a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis extreme particular focus Germany. heatwave first affected Scandinavia mid-July shifted towards Europe late July, while Iberia primarily early August. atmospheric circulation characterized by strongly positive blocking anomalies over combination North Atlantic Oscillation double jet stream configuration before initiation heatwave. In possible precursors common to previous European heatwaves, Eurasian double-jet structure tripolar sea surface temperature anomaly were already identified spring. While stages air masses at mid upper levels often remote, maritime origin, later had local-to-regional origin. Germany most, starting warmer than average conditions spring, associated enhanced latent release that initiated severe depletion soil moisture. During summer, continued precipitation deficit exacerbated problem, leading hydrological agricultural drought. A probabilistic attribution assessment showed such events prolonged have become more likely due anthropogenic global warming. Regarding future projections, as is expected occur every 2 out 3 years +1.5 ∘C world virtually single year +2 world. With large-scale impactful becoming frequent intense under climate change, comprehensive studies like one presented here quantify multitude their effects provide valuable information basis adaptation mitigation strategies.

Language: Английский

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A joint framework for studying compound ecoclimatic events

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(5), P. 333 - 350

Published: April 18, 2023

Language: Английский

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Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(1), P. 77 - 117

Published: Jan. 6, 2025

Abstract. Drought and heat events in Europe are becoming increasingly frequent due to human-induced climate change, impacting both human well-being ecosystem functioning. The intensity effects of these vary across the continent, making it crucial for decision-makers understand spatial variability drought impacts. Data on drought-related damage currently dispersed scientific publications, government reports, media outlets. This study consolidates data European forests from 2018 2022, using Europe-wide datasets including those related crown defoliation, insect damage, burnt forest areas, tree cover loss. data, covering 16 countries, were analysed four regions, northern, central, Alpine, southern, compared with a reference period 2010 2014. Findings reveal that all zones experienced reduced vitality elevated temperatures, varying severity. Central showed highest vulnerability, coniferous deciduous trees. southern zone, while affected by loss, demonstrated greater resilience, likely historical exposure. northern zone is experiencing emerging impacts less severely, possibly site-adapted boreal species, Alpine minimal impact, suggesting protective effect altitude. Key trends include (1) significant loss zones; (2) high levels despite 2021 being an average year, indicating lasting previous years; (3) notable challenges central Sweden bark beetle infestations; (4) no increase wildfire severity ongoing challenges. Based this assessment, we conclude (i) highly vulnerable heat, even resilient ecosystems at risk severe damage; (ii) tailored strategies essential mitigate change forests, incorporating regional differences resilience; (iii) effective management requires harmonised collection enhanced monitoring address future comprehensively.

Language: Английский

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Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(2), P. 541 - 564

Published: Feb. 7, 2025

Abstract. Europe frequently experiences a wide range of extreme events and natural hazards, including heatwaves, precipitation, droughts, cold spells, windstorms, storm surges. Many these do not occur as single but rather show multivariate character, known compound events. We investigate the interactions between weather events, their characteristics, changes in intensity frequency, well uncertainties past, present, future. also explore impacts on various socio-economic sectors Germany central Europe. This contribution highlights several case studies with special focus 2018, year marked by an exceptional sequence across large parts Europe, resulting severe human lives, ecosystems, infrastructure. provide new insights into drivers spatially temporally such heat drought, heavy precipitation combined winds, adverse effects ecosystems society, using large-scale atmospheric patterns. examine interannual influence droughts surface water impact scarcity heatwaves agriculture forests. assess projected at different current future global temperature levels, demonstrating need for improved quantification to support adaptation planning. Finally, we address research gaps directions, stressing importance defining composite primarily terms prior statistical characterisation.

Language: Английский

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Potential of Biochar to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Increase Nitrogen Use Efficiency in Boreal Arable Soils in the Long-Term

Frontiers in Environmental Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: May 17, 2022

Biochars have potential to provide agricultural and environmental benefits such as increasing soil carbon sequestration, crop yield, fertility while reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions nitrogen leaching. However, whether these effects will sustain for the long-term is still unknown. Moreover, were observed mostly in highly weathered (sub-) tropical soils with low pH organic (SOC). The northern colder boreal regions typically higher SOC undergo continuous freeze-thaw cycles. Therefore, of biochars may be different from those other climates. only a few biochar studies been conducted regions. We aimed assess on GHG emissions, yield-normalized non-CO 2 (GHGI), N dynamics soils. For this, we collected data four existing Finnish field experiments during 2018 growing season. Jokioinen (Stagnosol), Qvidja (Cambisol), Viikki-1 Viikki-2 (Umbrisol), where applied, 2, 8, 7 years before, respectively. mineral N, microbial biomass measured all fields, whereas, additional measurements plant contents leaching Qvidja. increased CO efflux Viikki-2, there no statistically significant fluxes O or CH 4 , but Qvidja, tended reduce at peak emission points. tendency seemed silt content lower initial carbon. demonstrated yield by 65% reduced GHGI 43% Viikki-2. In increment biomass, uptake, use efficiency, reduction NO 3 − –N spruce attributed its ability retain –N, which could linked significantly specific surface area. hence losses, has implications sustainable management fertilization.

Language: Английский

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Increased Sensitivity of Global Vegetation Productivity to Drought Over the Recent Three Decades

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 128(7)

Published: March 27, 2023

Abstract Intensified droughts have been weakening global vegetation productivity, yet how the sensitivity of productivity to drought changes over time is not well known. Here, using simulated long‐term gross primary production (GPP) with an improved two‐leaf light use efficiency model and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), we studied drought, quantified by corresponding scale SPEI strongest impact on GPP, analyzed in two periods (1993–2005 2006–2018). Compared first period, were more widespread severer around world second as evidenced increased range (increased 4.43%) intensity (SPEI03 decreased 103%). Globally, area significant correlation between GPP 25.53%, 14.75%, enhanced 13.76%; changing directions pretty similar across various types, mostly showing increasing trend. Moreover, regions consistently decreasing moisture was affected most strongly experienced greatest change (enhanced 10.99%), indicating that arid semi‐arid ecosystems should be considered a research priority future. Our results reveal strengthened recent decades climate transition regions, which could improve our understanding behavior fate terrestrial climate.

Language: Английский

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