Climate tipping points and their potential impact on drinking water supply planning and management in Europe DOI Creative Commons
P. van Thienen,

Herbert ter Maat,

Sija Stofberg

et al.

Cambridge Prisms Water, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 3

Published: Dec. 27, 2024

Abstract The current generation of climate models has proven very helpful in understanding and projecting anthropogenic change but also shown to be insufficient for studying the interactions tipping elements their impact on overall stability. As a consequence, are mostly absent from projections that commonly used by drinking water industry test resilience systems. There is, however, mounting evidence existence potential (possibly even imminent) activation some these elements. sector necessity, slow-moving as its infrastructure is meant operate many decades practice often does so longer. time scales possible changes associated with element activations may, much shorter. We provide review present simple model investigates magnitudes rapid activations. study consequences supply systems, focusing Europe, argue given deep uncertainty far-reaching consequences, it essential include scenarios decision-making processes sector.

Language: Английский

Structural stability changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation DOI Creative Commons
Mihai Dima, Gerrit Lohmann,

Denis‐Răducu Nichita

et al.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: Feb. 25, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Tipping of thermoacoustic systems with secondary bifurcation in colored noise environments: Effects of rate DOI

Xiaoyu Zhang,

Yong Xu, Qi Liu

et al.

Chaos An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 35(3)

Published: March 1, 2025

Rate-dependent tipping that concerns the effects of rate parameter change on sudden transitions has been revealed in thermoacoustic systems. However, conventional models cannot accurately portray intermittent oscillations observed experiments. This study explores behaviors a system with secondary bifurcation, simultaneously accounting for coupling and colored noise. Particularly, model contains higher-order nonlinearities, which lead to emergence both supercritical subcritical bifurcations. It can qualitatively reproduce dynamics system. We perform transient analysis via stochastic averaging method explore influence mechanisms noise phenomenon. The results show exhibits phenomenon from desired state instability through intermittency. Interestingly, causes delay tipping, while its increase enlarges amplitude oscillations. In addition, changes an abrupt smooth large intensities.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Connecting complex and simplified models of tipping elements: a nonlinear two-forcing emulator for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation DOI Creative Commons
Amaury Laridon,

Victor Couplet,

Justin Gérard

et al.

Open Research Europe, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 5, P. 87 - 87

Published: March 31, 2025

Background Despite its far-reaching implications, accurately characterizing the tipping dynamics of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) remains a significant challenge. Complex models, including Earth System Models (ESMs) and Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), offer valuable insights; however, they are computationally expensive subject to substantial uncertainties in identifying AMOC points. In contrast, simple conceptual models based on non-linear have been developed represent elements such as AMOC. These can be calibrated against complex explore various scenarios forcing spaces, functioning emulators. Traditionally, emulators focused single variable, typically global mean temperature, despite well-established influence freshwater fluxes dynamics. Moreover, existing two-forcing lack robust calibration methods models. Methods this study, we develop validate emulator that incorporates temperature flux, grounded The is response within EMIC cGENIE. After validation, integrated into SURFER, reduced-complexity climate model, enabling rapid simulation trajectories under diverse emission scenarios. Results By considering Greenland Ice Sheet melt, captures two additional collapses one overshoot without for ranging from SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5. Furthermore, allows assessment critical manifold identification combined thresholds serving tool comparing sensitivities Conclusions With low computational cost accuracy, our represents advancement exploring future climatic Finally, methodology used generalizable, providing framework studying other research.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Overview of the advances in understanding chaos in low-dimensional dynamical systems subjected to parameter drift DOI
Dániel Jánosi, Tamás Tél

Physics Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 1092, P. 1 - 64

Published: Sept. 21, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Anticipating socio-technical tipping points DOI Creative Commons
Franziska Mey, Diana Mangalagiu, Johan Lilliestam

et al.

Global Environmental Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 89, P. 102911 - 102911

Published: Sept. 20, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy DOI Creative Commons
Colin Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben Booth

et al.

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(5), P. 1319 - 1351

Published: Oct. 18, 2024

Abstract. We review how the international modelling community, encompassing integrated assessment models, global and regional Earth system climate impact has worked together over past few decades to advance understanding of change its impacts on society environment thereby support policy. go recommend a number priority research areas for coming decade, timescale that encompasses newly starting activities, as well IPCC Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) second UNFCCC Global Stocktake. Progress in these will significantly our impacts, increasing quality utility science emphasize need continued improvement of, ability simulate, coupled change. There is an urgent investigate plausible pathways emission scenarios realize Paris targets – example, overshoot 1.5 or 2 °C warming, before returning levels at some later date. models be capable thoroughly assessing such warming overshoots particular, efficacy mitigation measures, negative CO2 emissions, reducing atmospheric driving cooling. An improved long-term consequences stabilizing above pre-industrial temperatures also required. run CO2-emission mode more fully represent climate–carbon-cycle feedbacks and, wherever possible, interactively simulate other key phenomena risk rapid during overshoot. Regional downscaling should use forcing data from simulations, so projections cover complete range potential responses accurate simulation observed, historical record remains fundamental requirement does metrics, effective sensitivity transient response cumulative carbon emissions. For adaptation, demand guidance changes extremes modes variability develop within. Such improvements most likely realized through combination increased model resolution, parameterizations, enhanced representation important processes, combined with targeted new artificial intelligence (AI) machine learning (ML) techniques. propose deeper collaboration across efforts decade. With respect sampling future uncertainty, between approaches large ensembles those focussed statistical emulation focus high-impact–low-likelihood (HILL) outcomes exceeding critical tipping points arising this. comprehensive change, including directly result actions, it spatially detailed, disaggregated information used generate available models. Conversely, there methods enable societal projected incorporated into scenario development. The data, scientific advances proposed this article not possible without development maintenance robust, globally connected infrastructure ecosystem. This must easily accessible useable by communities world, allowing community engaged developing delivering knowledge

Language: Английский

Citations

1
AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise DOI Creative Commons
Sacha Sinet, Peter Ashwin, Anna S. von der Heydt

et al.

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(4), P. 859 - 873

Published: July 12, 2024

Abstract. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has recently been categorized as a core tipping element as, under climate change, it is believed to be prone critical transition implying drastic consequences on planetary scale. Moreover, the AMOC strongly coupled polar ice sheets via meltwater fluxes. On one hand, most studies agree fact that collapse of Greenland Ice Sheet would result in weakening AMOC. other West Antarctica are less well understood. However, some suggest originating from Southern Hemisphere able stabilize Using conceptual model and minimal parameterization sheet collapse, we investigate origin relevance this stabilization effect both deterministic stochastic cases. While substantial found cases, find rate- noise-induced effects have impact stability, those imply leaving bistable regime neither necessary nor sufficient for tip. Also, rate-induced tend allow cases where peak flux occurs before flux.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Climate tipping points and their potential impact on drinking water supply planning and management in Europe DOI Creative Commons
P. van Thienen,

Herbert ter Maat,

Sija Stofberg

et al.

Cambridge Prisms Water, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 3

Published: Dec. 27, 2024

Abstract The current generation of climate models has proven very helpful in understanding and projecting anthropogenic change but also shown to be insufficient for studying the interactions tipping elements their impact on overall stability. As a consequence, are mostly absent from projections that commonly used by drinking water industry test resilience systems. There is, however, mounting evidence existence potential (possibly even imminent) activation some these elements. sector necessity, slow-moving as its infrastructure is meant operate many decades practice often does so longer. time scales possible changes associated with element activations may, much shorter. We provide review present simple model investigates magnitudes rapid activations. study consequences supply systems, focusing Europe, argue given deep uncertainty far-reaching consequences, it essential include scenarios decision-making processes sector.

Language: Английский

Citations

0