Most likely noise-induced tipping of the overturning circulation in a two-dimensional Boussinesq fluid model DOI

Jelle Soons,

Tobias Grafke, Henk A. Dijkstra

et al.

Journal of Fluid Mechanics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 1009

Published: April 21, 2025

There is a reasonable possibility that the present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in bistable regime, hence it relevant to compute pathways of noise-induced transitions between stable equilibrium states. Here, most probable transition pathway tipping northern overturning circulation spatially-continuous two-dimensional model with surface temperature and stochastic salinity forcings computed directly using large deviation theory. This reveals fluid dynamical mechanisms such tipping. Paradoxically starts off strengthening before short but strong pulse induces second cell. The increased atmospheric energy input this two-cell configuration cannot be mixed away quickly enough, leading collapse cell, finally resulting southern circulation. Additionally, approach allows us compare probability under different parameters deterministic part forcing, which quantifies increase as bifurcation point system approached.

Language: Английский

Most likely noise-induced tipping of the overturning circulation in a two-dimensional Boussinesq fluid model DOI

Jelle Soons,

Tobias Grafke, Henk A. Dijkstra

et al.

Journal of Fluid Mechanics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 1009

Published: April 21, 2025

There is a reasonable possibility that the present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in bistable regime, hence it relevant to compute pathways of noise-induced transitions between stable equilibrium states. Here, most probable transition pathway tipping northern overturning circulation spatially-continuous two-dimensional model with surface temperature and stochastic salinity forcings computed directly using large deviation theory. This reveals fluid dynamical mechanisms such tipping. Paradoxically starts off strengthening before short but strong pulse induces second cell. The increased atmospheric energy input this two-cell configuration cannot be mixed away quickly enough, leading collapse cell, finally resulting southern circulation. Additionally, approach allows us compare probability under different parameters deterministic part forcing, which quantifies increase as bifurcation point system approached.

Language: Английский

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