Higher temperature sensitivity of retrogressive thaw slump activity in the Arctic compared to the Third Pole

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 914, P. 170007 - 170007

Published: Jan. 16, 2024

Language: Английский

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On the use of explainable AI for susceptibility modeling: Examining the spatial pattern of SHAP values

Geoscience Frontiers, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(4), P. 101800 - 101800

Published: Feb. 2, 2024

Hydro-morphological processes (HMP, any natural phenomenon contained within the spectrum defined between debris flows and flash floods) are globally occurring hazards which pose great threats to our society, leading fatalities economical losses. For this reason, understanding dynamics behind HMPs is needed aid in hazard risk assessment. In work, we take advantage of an explainable deep learning model extract global local interpretations HMP occurrences across whole Chinese territory. We use a neural network architecture interpret results through spatial pattern SHAP values. doing so, can understand prediction on hierarchical basis, looking at how predictor set controls overall susceptibility as well same level single mapping unit. Our accurately predicts with AUC values measured ten-fold cross-validation ranging 0.83 0.86. This predictive performance attests for excellent skill. The main difference respect traditional statistical tools that latter usually lead clear interpretation expense high performance, otherwise reached via machine/deep solutions, though interpretation. recent development AI key combine both strengths. explore combination context modeling. Specifically, demonstrate extent one enter new data-driven interpretation, supporting decision-making process disaster mitigation prevention actions.

Language: Английский

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A Collaborative and Scalable Geospatial Data Set for Arctic Retrogressive Thaw Slumps with Data Standards

Scientific Data, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Jan. 6, 2025

Abstract Arctic permafrost is undergoing rapid changes due to climate warming in high latitudes. Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) are one of the most abrupt and impactful thermal-denudation events that change landscapes accelerate carbon feedbacks. Their spatial distribution remains poorly characterised time-intensive conventional mapping methods. While numerous RTS studies have published standalone digitisation datasets, lack a centralised, unified database has limited their utilisation, affecting scale generalisation ability deep learning models. To address this, we established Thaw Slumps (ARTS) dataset containing 23,529 RTS-present 20,434 RTS-absent digitisations from 20 datasets. We also proposed Data Curation Framework as working standard for digitisations. This designed be comprehensive, accessible, contributable, adaptable various RTS-related studies. its accompanying curation framework establish foundation enhanced collaboration research, facilitating standardised data sharing comprehensive analyses across research community.

Language: Английский

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Assessing multi-hazard susceptibility to cryospheric hazards: Lesson learnt from an Alaskan example

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 898, P. 165289 - 165289

Published: July 7, 2023

Classifying a given landscape on the basis of its susceptibility to surface processes is standard procedure in low mid-latitudes. Conversely, these procedures have hardly been explored periglacial regions. However, global warming radically changing this situation and will change it even more future. For reason, understanding spatial temporal dynamics geomorphological peri-arctic environments can be crucial make informed decisions such unstable shed light what changes may follow at lower latitudes. here we use data-driven models capable recognizing locations prone develop retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) and/or active layer detachments (ALDs). These are cryospheric hazards induced by permafrost degradation, their development negatively affect human settlements or infrastructure, sediment budget release greenhouse gases. Specifically, test binomial Generalized Additive Modeling structure estimate probability RST ALD occurrences North sector Alaskan territory. The results obtain show that our binary classifiers accurately recognize RTS ALD, number goodness-of-fit (AUCRTS = 0.83; AUCALD 0.86), random cross-validation (mean AUCRTS 0.82; mean 0.74; 0.80) routines. Overall, analytical protocol has implemented build an open-source tool scripted Python where all operational steps automatized for anyone replicate same experiment. Our allows one access cloud-stored information, pre-process it, download locally integrated predictive purposes.

Language: Английский

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Machine learning-based predictions of current and future susceptibility to retrogressive thaw slumps across the Northern Hemisphere

Advances in Climate Change Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(2), P. 253 - 264

Published: March 7, 2024

Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) caused by the thawing of ground ice on permafrost slopes have dramatically increased and become a common hazard across Northern Hemisphere during previous decades. However, gap remains in our comprehensive understanding spatial controlling factors, including climate terrain, that are conducive to these RTSs at global scale. Using machine learning methodologies, we mapped current future susceptibility distributions incorporating range environmental factors inventories. We identified thawing-degree days maximum summer rainfall as primary affecting susceptibility. The final ensemble map suggests regions with high very could constitute (11.6 ± 0.78)% Hemisphere's region. When juxtaposed (2000-2020) map, total area witness an increase ranging from (31.7 0.65)% (SSP585) (51.9± 0.73)% (SSP126) 2041-2060. insights gleaned this study not only offer valuable implications for engineering applications Hemisphere, but also provide long-term insight into potential change response change.

Language: Английский

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Retrogressive thaw slump susceptibility in the northern hemisphere permafrost region

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 49(11), P. 3319 - 3331

Published: May 22, 2024

Abstract Mean annual temperatures in the Arctic and subarctic have increased recent decades, increasing number of permafrost hazards. Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs), triggered by thawing ground ice soil, become more common Arctic. Many studies report an increase RTS activity on a local or regional scale. In this study, primary goals are to: (i) examine spatial patterns occurrences across circumpolar region, (ii) assess environmental factors associated with their occurrence (iii) create first susceptibility map for Northern Hemisphere. Based our results, we predicted high continuous regions above 60th latitude, especially northern Alaska, north‐western Canada, Yamal Peninsula, eastern Russia Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau. The model indicated that air temperature soil properties most critical RTSs Especially, climatic conditions season were highlighted. This study provided new insights into ice‐rich soils to rapid permafrost‐related hazards like impacts landscape evolution, infrastructure, hydrology carbon fluxes contribute global warming.

Language: Английский

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The first hillslope thermokarst inventory for the permafrost region of the Qilian Mountains

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(4), P. 2033 - 2045

Published: April 29, 2024

Abstract. Climate warming and anthropogenic disturbances result in permafrost degradation cold regions, including the Qilian Mountains. These changes lead to extensive hillslope thermokarst (HT) formation, such as retrogressive thaw slumps, active-layer detachment slides, thermal erosion gullies. turn cause, e.g., of local vegetation, economic losses, infrastructure damages, threats human safety. However, despite its importance, there is currently no inventory for Through manual visual interpretation field validation, we therefore produce first quantification HT features. We count a total 1064 features, with 67 % located upper reaches Heihe River basin, which encompasses ∼ 13 Mountains region. further identified that 187 features (18 %) existed before 2010, while remaining 874 (82 were initiated recent period. More specifically, 392 sites (37 during 2010–2015 482 (45 after 2015. Thermokarst terrain observed primarily areas shallow depths (average thickness 2.98 m) on northern shaded slopes 3–25°, low solar radiation moderate elevations ranging from 3200 4000 m. This an important missing piece documenting Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, this new dataset also provides basis studies, automated extraction susceptibility analysis HT, estimation losses caused by HT. The datasets are available National Tibetan Plateau/Third Pole Environment Data Center can be downloaded https://doi.org/10.11888/Cryos.tpdc.300805 (Peng Yang, 2023).

Language: Английский

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Complex geohazards at a high-priority Arctic cultural heritage site at Russekeila – Kapp Linné, Svalbard

CATENA, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 254, P. 108935 - 108935

Published: March 15, 2025

Language: Английский

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Near Pan-Svalbard permafrost cryospheric hazards inventory (SvalCryo)

Scientific Data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Aug. 17, 2024

Cryospheric hazards - in this case, thaw slumps (TS) and thermo-erosion gullies (TEG) are phenomena typical of permafrost-dominated landscapes. Open datasets informing about their spatial, temporal size distributions the Arctic still uncommon, as opposed to systematic availability information for geomorphic processes mid- low- latitudes. To date, only most populated region Svalbard was covered with TS TEG inventories. Here, we extend respective Archipelago, totalling 8491 polygons, out which 3679 TSs 4812 TEGs. These have been manually mapped from aerial photographs throughout across 14 largest ice-free regions. The SvalCryo inventory is highly relevant environment undergoes alarming changes response global warming. idea behind two inventories support geoscientific community quest evaluate environmental climate change, by creating a baseline change monitoring, ultimately serve basis susceptibility, hazard risk assessment models.

Language: Английский

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First geophysical investigations to study a fragile Pomor cultural heritage site at Russekeila – Kapp Linné), Svalbard

Journal of Cultural Heritage, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 63, P. 187 - 193

Published: Aug. 15, 2023

With climate warming, the cultural heritage sites of Arctic are in great danger. Extensive research is needed to study such sites. The archaeological site at Russekeila – Kapp Linné, Svalbard was selected for survey as previous had highlighted its vulnerability cryospheric hazards. main objectives were (i) register precise surface and subsurface locations (CH) (remains an 18th century Russian Pomor trapper's hut) objects within area, (ii) determine impact coastal erosion on CH (iii) understand near-surface stratigraphy site. geophysical surveys carried out using a Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) instrument with two shielded antennas 500 MHz 800 centre frequencies. Only weak anomalies observed intersections wooden drifts, which can be explained by low contrast between relative dielectric constant values driftwood background soil. depth extent soil understood from processed GPR data approximately 25 cm. A morphology, including thaw depth, saturated unsaturated sediments cover, established based multiple reflectors 2 m depth. Loose indicated 20 Unsaturated fine sediments, show stronger signal compared underlying sand layers, about 1.2 No shown below

Language: Английский

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