Groundwater stress in Europe—assessing uncertainties in future groundwater discharge alterations due to water abstractions and climate change DOI Creative Commons
Linda Söller, Robert Luetkemeier, Hannes Müller Schmied

et al.

Frontiers in Water, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Oct. 30, 2024

Groundwater sustains human well-being and ecosystems functioning. Many regions in Europe have experienced declining groundwater levels caused by decreasing recharge (GWR) or increasing abstractions (GWAs). These changes can lead to groundwater-related stress, threatening water supplies. Existing stress indicators estimate during a given period but do not address how show the uncertainty of future stress. We propose novel indicator (GWSI) due GWR GWA and, thus, alteration long-term mean annual discharge (GWD). is defined as any GWD since are adapted an equilibrium state. Focusing on GWD, which generally more harmful than we quantified GWSI integrating scenarios 2070–2099. was evaluated using ISIMIP2b multi-model ensemble eight global hydrological models driven output four climate under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. for irrigation, domestic manufacturing sectors were combined with projections generate GWSIs, simplified into three (high, intermediate, low). Projected GWSIs vary significantly among For high-stress scenario, 58% Europe’s land area projected experience decrease at least 25% RCP8.5 compared 38% RCP2.6, while respective values 26 1% intermediate-stress scenario. demand management alone might prevent declines intermediate scenarios, particularly RCP8.5. Therefore, change mitigation imperative reducing decline especially Eastern Southeastern Europe, where be primary cause (in high abstraction scenario RCP8.5). Under reductions GWAs 25–75% balance parts Spain Italy high, even In line precautionary principle, recommend adapting minimize harm beneficiaries groundwater.

Language: Английский

How to Apply Bayesian Networks as an Integration and Learning Tool to Assess Acceptance and Implementation Probability of Climate Change Adaptation Measures in Participatory Processes DOI
Laura Müller, Max Czymai,

Birgit Blättel‐Mink

et al.

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

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Language: Английский

Citations

0
Groundwater level projections for aquifers affected by annual to decadal hydroclimate variations DOI
Sivarama Krishna Reddy Chidepudi, Nicolas Masséi, Abderrahim Jardani

et al.

Authorea (Authorea), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Sept. 2, 2024

In a context where anticipating future trends and long-term variations in water resources is crucial, improving our knowledge about most types of aquifer responses to climate variability change necessary. Aquifers with dominated by seasonal (marked annual cycle) or low-frequency (interannual decadal driven large-scale dynamics) may encounter different sensitivities change. We investigated this hypothesis generating groundwater level projections using deep learning models for annual, inertial (low-frequency dominated) mixed annual/low-frequency northern France from 16 CMIP6 model inputs an ensemble approach. Generated were then analysed changes variability. Generally, levels tended decrease all scenarios across the 2030-2100. The showed slightly increasing but decreasing types. As severity scenario increased, more inertial-type stations appeared be affected Focusing on confirmed observation: while significant amount less severe SSP 2-4.5 scenario, eventually slight yet statistically as increased. For almost Finally, seemed, instances, higher than historical period, without any differences between emission scenarios.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Groundwater stress in Europe—assessing uncertainties in future groundwater discharge alterations due to water abstractions and climate change DOI Creative Commons
Linda Söller, Robert Luetkemeier, Hannes Müller Schmied

et al.

Frontiers in Water, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Oct. 30, 2024

Groundwater sustains human well-being and ecosystems functioning. Many regions in Europe have experienced declining groundwater levels caused by decreasing recharge (GWR) or increasing abstractions (GWAs). These changes can lead to groundwater-related stress, threatening water supplies. Existing stress indicators estimate during a given period but do not address how show the uncertainty of future stress. We propose novel indicator (GWSI) due GWR GWA and, thus, alteration long-term mean annual discharge (GWD). is defined as any GWD since are adapted an equilibrium state. Focusing on GWD, which generally more harmful than we quantified GWSI integrating scenarios 2070–2099. was evaluated using ISIMIP2b multi-model ensemble eight global hydrological models driven output four climate under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. for irrigation, domestic manufacturing sectors were combined with projections generate GWSIs, simplified into three (high, intermediate, low). Projected GWSIs vary significantly among For high-stress scenario, 58% Europe’s land area projected experience decrease at least 25% RCP8.5 compared 38% RCP2.6, while respective values 26 1% intermediate-stress scenario. demand management alone might prevent declines intermediate scenarios, particularly RCP8.5. Therefore, change mitigation imperative reducing decline especially Eastern Southeastern Europe, where be primary cause (in high abstraction scenario RCP8.5). Under reductions GWAs 25–75% balance parts Spain Italy high, even In line precautionary principle, recommend adapting minimize harm beneficiaries groundwater.

Language: Английский

Citations

0