Revisiting the Use of the Gumbel Distribution: A Comprehensive Statistical Analysis Regarding Modeling Extremes and Rare Events
Mathematics,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
12(16), P. 2466 - 2466
Published: Aug. 9, 2024
The
manuscript
presents
the
applicability
of
Gumbel
distribution
in
frequency
analysis
extreme
events
hydrology.
advantages
and
disadvantages
using
are
highlighted,
as
well
recommendations
regarding
its
proper
use.
A
literature
review
was
also
carried
out
methods
for
estimating
parameters
Thus,
verification
methods,
case
studies
presented
determination
maximum
annual
flows
precipitations
nine
parameters.
influence
variability
observed
data
lengths
on
estimation
statistical
indicators,
parameters,
quantiles
corresponding
to
field
small
exceedance
probabilities
(p
<
1%)
is
highlighted.
In
each
case,
results
analyzed
compared
those
obtained
with
Generalized
Extreme
Value
distribution,
four-parameter
Burr
five-parameter
Wakeby
estimated
L-moments
method.
highlight
reaffirm
statistical,
mathematical,
hydrological
avoidance
applying
flood
use
reservations
precipitation
analysis,
especially
when
indicators
not
close
characteristic
ones
unique
distribution.
Language: Английский
Scaling Properties of Rainfall as a Basis for Intensity–Duration–Frequency Relationships and Their Spatial Distribution in Catalunya, NE Spain
Climate,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
13(2), P. 37 - 37
Published: Feb. 8, 2025
The
spatial
distribution
of
rainfall
intensity–duration–frequency
(IDF)
values,
essential
for
hydrological
applications,
were
estimated
Catalunya,
Spain.
From
a
larger
database
managed
by
the
Meteorological
Service
Catalunya
and
after
rigorous
quality
control,
163
high-quality
daily
series
spanning
from
1942
to
2016,
with
an
average
length
39.8
years
approximately
one
station
per
200
km2,
selected.
A
monofractal
downscaling
methodology
was
applied
derive
intensities
sub-daily
durations
using
reference
24
h
duration
as
basis,
followed
interpolations
on
1
km
×
grid.
scaling
parameter
values
have
been
found
be
higher
in
northwestern
mountainous
areas,
influenced
Atlantic
climate,
lower
central–western
driest
zones.
general
negative
gradient
observed
toward
coastline,
reflecting
increasing
influence
Mediterranean
Sea.
IDF
results
are
presented
maps,
providing
intensity–frequency
estimates
between
hour
day,
return
periods
2
years,
uncertainty
below
12%
200-year
period,
shorter
periods.
These
findings
highlight
need
capture
variations
urban
planning,
flood
climate
resilience
efforts.
Language: Английский
The exceptional hydrological disaster of April-May 2024 in southern Brazil
RBRH,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
30
Published: Jan. 1, 2025
ABSTRACT
We
present
an
overview
of
the
unprecedent
hydrological
event
that
occurred
in
Rio
Grande
do
Sul
state
late
April
and
early
May
2024,
causing
floods
landslides
a
scale
was
not
seen
before
Brazil.
The
rainfall
caused
disaster
is
incomparable
to
any
recent
Brazil
at
large
spatial
temporal
scale.
intense
long-lasting
precipitation
led
record
from
small
rivers
with
drainage
areas
below
1000
km2
Patos
Lagoon,
which
drains
more
than
180,000
km2.
also
rank
first
terms
number
occurrences.
Mountain
experienced
flash
extreme
water
levels,
while
lowlands
Lagoon
long
duration
flooding,
stage
remaining
high
for
about
30
days.
flood
probably
ranked
displaced
people
damage
property
infrastructure
Almost
200
fatalities
due
protection
structure
failures.
April-May
show
glimpse
what
can
be
expected
along
coming
decades
climate
change
region
covers
South
Brazil,
parts
neighboring
countries.
Language: Английский
An In-Depth Statistical Analysis of the Pearson Type III Distribution Behavior in Modeling Extreme and Rare Events
Water,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
17(10), P. 1539 - 1539
Published: May 20, 2025
Statistical
distributions
play
a
crucial
role
in
water
resources
management
and
civil
engineering,
particularly
for
analyzing
data
variability
predicting
rare
events
with
extremely
long
return
periods
(e.g.,
T
=
1000
years,
10,000
years).
Among
these,
the
Pearson
III
(PE3)
distribution
is
widely
used
hydrology
flood
frequency
analysis
(FFA).
This
study
aims
to
provide
comprehensive
guide
practical
application
of
PE3
FFA.
It
explores
five
parameter
estimation
methods,
presenting
both
exact
newly
developed
approximate
relationships
calculating
parameters
factors.
The
relies
on
from
four
rivers
varying
morphometric
characteristics
record
lengths.
results
highlight
that
distribution,
when
L-moments
method,
offers
most
reliable
quantile
estimates,
characterized
by
smallest
biases
compared
other
methods
31%
Nicolina
River
and,
respectively,
5%
Siret
Ialomita
Rivers)
highest
confidence
events.
Based
these
findings,
approach
recommended
improve
accuracy
extreme
flow
forecasts.
Language: Английский
Assessment of social vulnerability to floods based on fuzzy logic in a Mediterranean dense urban area: Palma, Mallorca, Spain
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
unknown, P. 105594 - 105594
Published: May 1, 2025
Language: Английский
Storylines of extreme precipitation events and flood impacts in alpine and pre-alpine environments under various global warming levels
The Science of The Total Environment,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
957, P. 177791 - 177791
Published: Dec. 1, 2024
Exploring
the
impacts
of
extreme
weather
events
has
gained
increased
attention
in
recent
years
after
repeated
record-breaking
events,
such
as
unprecedented
river
flood
central
Europe
summer
2021.
After
event,
risk
management
institutions,
for
example,
fire
brigades,
civil
protection
units,
or
natural
hazard
experts
asked
if
it
was
possible
to
predict
an
event
ex-ante
and
similar
could
occur
elsewhere
climatic
changes
can
even
worsen
events.
Here,
we
present
approach
explore
storylines
physically
plausible
a
warming
climate.
The
simulated
are
based
on
precipitation
selected
from
re-forecast
archives.
River
discharge,
processes,
their
people
infrastructure
nine
under
five
global
levels
alpine
pre-alpine
headwater
catchments
main
rivers
northern
Switzerland.
intensity
linearly
with
according
Clausius-Clapeyron
relation.
coupled
hydrological-hydraulic
simulations
show
that
increase
peak
discharge
is
higher
than
precipitation.
non-linearly
levels.
results
record-breaking,
high-impact
floods
current
atmospheric
conditions,
climate
change
substantially
aggravates
impacts.
broad
range
potential
outcomes
impact
depending
scenario
local
conditions.
This
leads
conclusion
valuable
tool
explore,
describe,
communicate
Still,
inherent
challenge
communication
representativeness
particular
storyline
and,
hence,
practical
consequences
should
not
be
derived.
We,
therefore,
suggest
considering
magnitudes
different
spatiotemporal
patterns
comprehend
select
appropriate
out
set
communication.
Language: Английский
Brief communication: Stay local or go global? On the construction of plausible counterfactual scenarios to assess flash flood hazards
Natural hazards and earth system sciences,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
24(12), P. 4609 - 4615
Published: Dec. 16, 2024
Abstract.
Spatial
counterfactuals
are
gaining
attention
to
address
the
lack
of
robust
flood
frequency
analysis
in
small
catchments.
However,
credibility
counterfactual
scenarios
decreases
with
distance
rain
fields
transposed
across
space.
We
limit
that
by
a
local
search
design
and
compare
corresponding
recently
published
results
from
long-distance
transpositions.
then
put
all
into
context
200-year
return
levels
peaks
simulated
for
June
2024
event
southern
Germany.
conclude
transparent
credible
could
complement
anticipation
low-probability
events.
Language: Английский