Catchments do not strictly follow Budyko curves over multiple decades, but deviations are minor and predictable DOI Creative Commons
Muhammad Ibrahim, Miriam Coenders‐Gerrits, Ruud van der Ent

et al.

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 29(6), P. 1703 - 1723

Published: March 26, 2025

Abstract. Quantification of precipitation partitioning into evaporation and runoff is crucial for predicting future water availability. Within the widely used Budyko framework, which relates long-term aridity index to evaporative index, curvilinear relationships between these indices (i.e. parametric curves) allow quantification under prevailing climatic conditions. A common assumption that movement along a specific curve with changes in over time can be as predictor catchment responses changing However, various studies have reported deviations around curves, raises questions about usefulness method predictions. To investigate whether curves still predictive power, we quantified global, regional, local evolution catchments from their multiple subsequent 20-year periods throughout last century based on historical balance data 2000 river worldwide. This process resulted up four distributions annual mean each catchment. use predict deviations, temporal stability was evaluated time. On average, it found majority (62 %) study did not significantly deviate expected curves. Out remaining 38 % deviated magnitude median remains minor, 70 falling within range ±0.025 index. When were expressed relative discharge, arid regions showed higher susceptibility larger discharge shifts compared those humid regions. Furthermore, significant catchments, constituting same percentage, stable across periods, making them well suited statistically high power. These findings suggest while trajectories change do strictly follow are minor quantifiable. Consequently, taking account formulations framework remain valuable tool conditions quantifiable margins error.

Language: Английский

Catchments do not strictly follow Budyko curves over multiple decades, but deviations are minor and predictable DOI Creative Commons
Muhammad Ibrahim, Miriam Coenders‐Gerrits, Ruud van der Ent

et al.

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 29(6), P. 1703 - 1723

Published: March 26, 2025

Abstract. Quantification of precipitation partitioning into evaporation and runoff is crucial for predicting future water availability. Within the widely used Budyko framework, which relates long-term aridity index to evaporative index, curvilinear relationships between these indices (i.e. parametric curves) allow quantification under prevailing climatic conditions. A common assumption that movement along a specific curve with changes in over time can be as predictor catchment responses changing However, various studies have reported deviations around curves, raises questions about usefulness method predictions. To investigate whether curves still predictive power, we quantified global, regional, local evolution catchments from their multiple subsequent 20-year periods throughout last century based on historical balance data 2000 river worldwide. This process resulted up four distributions annual mean each catchment. use predict deviations, temporal stability was evaluated time. On average, it found majority (62 %) study did not significantly deviate expected curves. Out remaining 38 % deviated magnitude median remains minor, 70 falling within range ±0.025 index. When were expressed relative discharge, arid regions showed higher susceptibility larger discharge shifts compared those humid regions. Furthermore, significant catchments, constituting same percentage, stable across periods, making them well suited statistically high power. These findings suggest while trajectories change do strictly follow are minor quantifiable. Consequently, taking account formulations framework remain valuable tool conditions quantifiable margins error.

Language: Английский

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