Prediction and Influencing Factors of Precipitation in the Songliao River Basin, China: Insights from CMIP6

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(5), P. 2297 - 2297

Published: March 6, 2025

The Songliao River Basin (SLRB) is a key agricultural region in China, and understanding precipitation variations can provide crucial support for water resource management sustainable development. This study used CN05.1 observational data the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to simulate evaluate characteristics within SLRB. optimal model ensemble was selected future predictions. We analyzed historical SLRB projected under SSP126, SSP245, SSP585, while exploring driving factors influencing precipitation. results indicated that EC-Earth3-Veg (0.507) BCC-CSM2-MR (0.493) from MME2 effectively capture variations, with corrected more closely matching actual characteristics. From 1971 2014, showed an insignificant increasing trend, most concentrated between May September. Precipitation basin decreased southeast northwest. 2026 2100, trend became significant. of growth over time as follows: SSP126 < SSP245 SSP585. Future distribution resembled period, but area semiarid regions gradually humid increased, particularly long-term increase will become pronounced, significant expansion high-precipitation areas. In low-latitude, high-longitude areas, events were expected occur, impact altitude relatively weaker. response changes temperature shifts negative positive. Under this becomes average by 4.87% every 1 °C rise temperature.

Language: Английский

Projected Climate Change Impacts on the Number of Dry and Very Heavy Precipitation Days by Century’s End: A Case Study of Iran’s Metropolises

Water, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(16), P. 2226 - 2226

Published: Aug. 6, 2024

This study explores the impacts of climate change on number dry days and very heavy precipitation within Iran’s metropolises. Focusing Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Karaj, Shiraz, Tabriz, research utilizes sixth phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to predict future conditions under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from 2025 2100. The aims provide a comprehensive understanding how will affect patterns in these major cities. Findings indicate that SSP126 scenario typically results highest days, suggesting lower emission scenarios, events become less frequent but more intense. Conversely, SSP585 generally leads lowest days. Higher scenarios (SSP370, SSP585) consistently show an increase across all cities, indicating trend towards extreme weather as emissions rise. These insights are crucial for urban planners, policymakers, stakeholders developing effective adaptation mitigation strategies address anticipated climatic changes.

Language: Английский

Spatiotemporal Climate Change Projection and Trend Analysis Using Selected Downscaled CMIP6 Models for Water Action Over Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Environmental Challenges, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 101059 - 101059

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Language: Английский