Winners and Losers From Climate Change: An Analysis of Climate Thresholds for Tree Growth and Survival for Roughly 150 Species Across the Contiguous United States DOI
Christopher M. Clark, Justin G. Coughlin, Jennifer Phelan

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(12)

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

ABSTRACT Changes in temperature and precipitation are already influencing US forests that will continue the future even as we mitigate climate change. Using spatiotemporally matched data for mean annual (MAT) (MAP), used simulated annealing to estimate critical thresholds changes growth survival of roughly 150 tree species (153 spp. growth, 159 survival) across conterminous United States (CONUS). We found nearly one‐third assessed (44 spp.) decreased with any increase MAT (42–49 species), whereas fewer responded negatively projected regional trends MAP (< 20 each east west). Hypothetical increases (+1°C, +2°C) increased average Central East Pacific Northwest over large areas Rockies Southeast, while decadal generally temperature. Average had unfavorable associations precipitation, decreasing wetter conditions (+25%) drier (−25%) west. Beyond these averages, there were positively everywhere CONUS, suggesting forest composition underway. identified only eight out ~150 tolerant temperature, 24 seven west regionally specific (increases decreases confidence on a 5‐point scale (1–5) five aspects uncertainty. scores high, though some metrics low especially survival. These findings have significant implications national carbon sink conservation efforts face

Language: Английский

Analysis of nature-related themes and terminology in U.S. climate assessments DOI Creative Commons
Emma Conrad-Rooney, Christopher Avery, Gillian Bowser

et al.

Climatic Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 178(4)

Published: April 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Forest Resources of the United States, 2022 DOI
Sonja N. Oswalt, Consuelo Brandeis, Renate Bush

et al.

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Geographic variation in projected US forest aboveground carbon responses to climate change and atmospheric deposition DOI Creative Commons

Aspen Reese,

Christopher M. Clark, Jennifer Phelan

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 19(3), P. 034028 - 034028

Published: Feb. 7, 2024

Forest composition and ecosystem services are sensitive to anthropogenic pressures like climate change atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) sulfur (S). Here we extend recent forest projections for the current cohort trees in contiguous US, characterizing potential changes aboveground tree carbon at county level response varying mean annual temperature, precipitation, N S deposition. We found that relative a scenario with reduction no change, greater led generally decreasing (mean -7.5% under RCP4.5, -16% RCP8.5). Keeping constant, reduced tended lessen -7%), whereas increase (+3%) by 2100. Through mid-century (2050), was more important predicting responses except extreme scenarios (RCP

Language: Английский

Citations

2

Spatiotemporal characteristics of tree mortality from bark beetle outbreaks vary within and among bark beetle-host tree associations in the western United States DOI
Robert A. Andrus, Jeffrey A. Hicke, Arjan J. H. Meddens

et al.

Forest Ecology and Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 576, P. 122382 - 122382

Published: Nov. 15, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

2

Carbon, climate, and natural disturbance: a review of mechanisms, challenges, and tools for understanding forest carbon stability in an uncertain future DOI Creative Commons
Alex W. Dye, Rachel Houtman, Peng Gao

et al.

Carbon Balance and Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 19(1)

Published: Oct. 10, 2024

In this review, we discuss current research on forest carbon risk from natural disturbance under climate change for the United States, with emphasis advancements in analytical mapping and modeling tools that have potential to drive managing future long-term stability of carbon. As a mechanism storage, forests are critical component meeting mitigation strategies designed combat anthropogenic emissions. Forests consist long-lived organisms (trees) can store centuries or more. However, trees finite lifespans, disturbances such as wildfire, insect disease outbreaks, drought hasten tree mortality reduce growth, thereby slowing sequestration, driving emissions, reducing storage stable pools, particularly live standing dead portions counted many offset programs. Many regimes, but human activities disrupt frequency severity ways likely consequences To minimize negative effects maximize resilience carbon, risks must be accounted protocols, management practices, techniques. This requires detailed quantities distribution across States hopefully one day globally; frequency, severity, timing disturbances; mechanisms by which affect storage; how may alter each these elements. Several (e.g. fire spread models, imputed inventory growth simulators) exist address more aforementioned items help inform risk, maintain further explore challenges, uncertainties, opportunities evaluating continued of, threats to, viable including offsets. A growing collective body technological improvements advanced science, highlight key limitations, gaps remain.

Language: Английский

Citations

1

Identifying climatically-compatible seedlots for the eastern US: building the predictive tools and knowledge to enable forest assisted migration DOI Creative Commons
Bryce T. Adams, Alejandro A. Royo, Christel C. Kern

et al.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7

Published: Nov. 20, 2024

Introduction Global climate change and associated stressors threaten forest ecosystems due to the rapid pace of change, which could exceed natural migration rate some tree species. In response, there is growing interest research implement assisted (FAM). Here, we used a species-independent indicator based on analogy, according sigma (dis)similarity (σ d ) index, match planting sites across eastern US with (future) climatically-compatible seedlots (CCS). Methods We developed CCS for grid composed 1 × 1° latitude longitude. were future analogs ≤2σ analogy ensure representative change. located three time periods, 2030's, 2050's, 2090's emissions scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 database, using 12 variables. Results identified majority grids SSP3-7.0 scenario. Approximately 28% grid's projections included novelty. The average 222, 358, 662 km or 1, 2, 3 seed zones away grids, respectively. also further south-southwest (188–197°). addition, cover was approximately 2%, 5%, 10% less than that grids. Discussion Our development synthesis emphasized four key results: (i) distances 2030's 2050's similar seed-transfer guidelines species, but exceeded current recommendations; (ii) south-southwesterly locations aligned species habitat distribution dynamics; (iii) novelty potentially challenges conceptual basis FAM if are not adapted change; (iv) variation in among presents potential opportunities presence absence forestland source seed. Ultimately, our goal locate synthesize enable decision support.

Language: Английский

Citations

1

Winners and Losers From Climate Change: An Analysis of Climate Thresholds for Tree Growth and Survival for Roughly 150 Species Across the Contiguous United States DOI
Christopher M. Clark, Justin G. Coughlin, Jennifer Phelan

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(12)

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

ABSTRACT Changes in temperature and precipitation are already influencing US forests that will continue the future even as we mitigate climate change. Using spatiotemporally matched data for mean annual (MAT) (MAP), used simulated annealing to estimate critical thresholds changes growth survival of roughly 150 tree species (153 spp. growth, 159 survival) across conterminous United States (CONUS). We found nearly one‐third assessed (44 spp.) decreased with any increase MAT (42–49 species), whereas fewer responded negatively projected regional trends MAP (< 20 each east west). Hypothetical increases (+1°C, +2°C) increased average Central East Pacific Northwest over large areas Rockies Southeast, while decadal generally temperature. Average had unfavorable associations precipitation, decreasing wetter conditions (+25%) drier (−25%) west. Beyond these averages, there were positively everywhere CONUS, suggesting forest composition underway. identified only eight out ~150 tolerant temperature, 24 seven west regionally specific (increases decreases confidence on a 5‐point scale (1–5) five aspects uncertainty. scores high, though some metrics low especially survival. These findings have significant implications national carbon sink conservation efforts face

Language: Английский

Citations

0