Robust
ecological
forecasting
requires
accurate
predictions
of
physiological
responses
to
environmental
drivers.
Energy
budget
models
facilitate
this
by
mechanistically
linking
biology
abiotic
drivers,
but
are
usually
ground-truthed
under
relatively
stable
physical
conditions,
omitting
temporal/spatial
variability.
Dynamic
Budget
(DEB)
theory
is
a
powerful
framework
capable
individual
fitness
drivers
and
we
tested
its
ability
accommodate
variability
examining
model
across
the
rocky
shore,
steep
ecotone
characterized
wide
fluctuations
in
temperature
food
availability.
We
parameterized
DEB
for
co-existing
mid/high-shore
(Mytilus
galloprovincialis)
mid/low-shore
(Perna
perna)
mussels
on
south
coast
South
Africa.
First,
assumed
permanently
submerged
then
incorporated
metabolic
depression
low
tide
using
detailed
data
tidal
cycles,
body
over
12
months
at
three
sites.
Models
provided
good
estimates
shell
length
both
species
gonadosomatic
index
were
consistently
lower
than
observed.
Model
disagreement
could
reflect
effects
details
and/or
difficulties
capturing
variability,
emphasising
need
incorporate
both.
Our
approach
provides
guidelines
incorporating
long-term
change
into
mechanistic
improve
predictions.
Ecology Letters,
Год журнала:
2019,
Номер
22(11), С. 1940 - 1956
Опубликована: Июль 29, 2019
Abstract
Knowing
where
species
occur
is
fundamental
to
many
ecological
and
environmental
applications.
Species
distribution
models
(SDMs)
are
typically
based
on
correlations
between
occurrence
data
predictors,
with
processes
captured
only
implicitly.
However,
there
a
growing
interest
in
approaches
that
explicitly
model
such
as
physiology,
dispersal,
demography
biotic
interactions.
These
believed
offer
more
robust
predictions,
particularly
when
extrapolating
novel
conditions.
Many
process–explicit
now
available,
but
it
not
clear
how
we
can
best
draw
this
expanded
modelling
toolbox
address
problems
inform
management
decisions.
Here,
review
range
of
determine
their
strengths
limitations,
well
current
use.
Focusing
four
common
applications
SDMs
–
regulatory
planning,
extinction
risk,
climate
refugia
invasive
then
explore
which
meet
needs.
We
identify
barriers
widespread
effective
use
process‐explicit
outline
these
might
be
overcome.
As
technical
challenges,
pressing
need
for
thorough
evaluation
predictions
guide
investment
method
development
ensure
the
promise
new
fully
realised.
Ecology and Evolution,
Год журнала:
2019,
Номер
9(17), С. 10029 - 10043
Опубликована: Авг. 2, 2019
The
regulation
of
body
temperature
(thermoregulation)
and
water
balance
(defined
here
as
hydroregulation)
are
key
processes
underlying
ecological
evolutionary
responses
to
climate
fluctuations
in
wild
animal
populations.
In
terrestrial
(or
semiterrestrial)
ectotherms,
thermoregulation
hydroregulation
closely
interact
combined
constraints
should
directly
influence
individual
performances.
Although
comparative
physiologists
traditionally
investigate
jointly
regulation,
the
implications
these
coupled
have
so
far
mostly
been
studied
independently.
Here,
we
revisit
concept
thermo-hydroregulation
address
functional
integration
ectotherms.
We
demonstrate
how
provides
a
framework
adaptations
joint
environmental
variation
availability,
potential
physiological
and/or
behavioral
conflicts
between
hydroregulation.
extend
classical
cost-benefit
model
ectotherms
highlight
adaptive
evolution
optimal
strategies.
Critical
gaps
parameterization
this
conceptual
optimality
guidelines
for
future
empirical
research
discussed.
show
that
studies
refine
our
mechanistic
understanding
plasticity,
fundamental
niche
species.
This
is
illustrated
with
relevant
recent
examples
space
use
dispersal,
resource-based
trade-offs,
life-history
tactics
insects,
amphibians,
nonavian
reptiles.
Global Change Biology,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
29(6), С. 1451 - 1470
Опубликована: Дек. 14, 2022
A
core
challenge
in
global
change
biology
is
to
predict
how
species
will
respond
future
environmental
and
manage
these
responses.
To
make
such
predictions
management
actions
robust
novel
futures,
we
need
accurately
characterize
organisms
experience
their
environments
the
biological
mechanisms
by
which
they
respond.
All
are
thermodynamically
connected
through
exchange
of
heat
water
at
fine
spatial
temporal
scales
this
can
be
captured
with
biophysical
models.
Although
mechanistic
models
based
on
ecology
have
a
long
history
development
application,
use
remains
limited
despite
enormous
promise
increasingly
accessible
software.
We
contend
that
greater
understanding
training
theory
methods
vital
expand
application.
Our
review
shows
implemented
understand
climate
impacts
species'
behavior,
phenology,
survival,
distribution,
abundance.
It
also
illustrates
types
outputs
generated,
data
inputs
required
for
different
implementations.
Examples
range
from
simple
calculations
body
temperature
particular
site
time,
more
complex
analyses
distribution
limits
projected
energy
balances,
accounting
behavior
phenology.
outline
challenges
currently
limit
widespread
application
relating
availability,
training,
lack
common
software
ecosystems.
discuss
progress
developments
could
allow
applied
many
across
large
extents
timeframes.
Finally,
highlight
uniquely
suited
solve
problems
involve
predicting
interpreting
responses
variability
extremes,
multiple
or
shifting
constraints,
abiotic
biotic
environments.
Ecography,
Год журнала:
2019,
Номер
43(1), С. 85 - 96
Опубликована: Ноя. 5, 2019
Mechanistic
niche
models
characterise
the
fundamental
of
an
organism
by
determining
thermodynamic
constraints
on
its
heat,
water
and
nutritional
budget,
consequences
this
for
growth,
development
reproduction.
They
can
thus
quantify
survival,
activity
and,
ultimately,
vital
rates
that
determine
population
given
a
sequence
environmental
conditions
key
morphological,
physiological
behavioural
functional
traits.
Here
we
introduce
document
ectotherm
model
NicheMapR,
R
package
includes
suite
programs
mechanistic
modelling
water,
energy
mass
exchange
between
any
kind
ectothermic
environment.
The
NicheMapR
is
based
Fortran
program
originally
developed
Porter,
Mitchell
Beckman
predicting
core
body
temperature
evaporative
loss
as
function
microclimatic
thermoregulation.
routines
computing
steady
state
two
extreme
microclimates
(minimum
maximum
shade)
computed
microclimate
model.
Behavioural
options
include
posture
colour
change,
shade‐seeking,
panting,
climbing
retreating
underground.
configure
to
be
called
from
part
describe
in
detail
including
new
functionality
whole
life‐cycle
budgets
using
Dynamic
Energy
Budget
theory.
We
scripts
operation
well
stand‐alone
running
DEB
Example
applications
are
provided
paper
associated
vignettes.
integrated
should
provide
strong
basis
effects
change
behaviour,
distribution
abundance
organisms.
Ecography,
Год журнала:
2020,
Номер
43(11), С. 1571 - 1590
Опубликована: Сен. 29, 2020
Coincident
with
recent
global
warming,
species
have
shifted
their
geographic
distributions
to
cooler
environments,
generally
by
moving
along
thermal
axes
higher
latitudes,
elevations
or
deeper
waters.
While
these
shifts
allow
organisms
track
niche,
three
also
covary
non‐climatic
abiotic
factors
that
could
pose
challenges
range‐shifting
plants
and
animals.
Such
novel
conditions
present
an
unappreciated
pitfall
for
researchers
–
from
both
empirical
predictive
viewpoints
who
study
the
redistribution
of
under
climate
change.
Climate,
particularly
temperature,
is
often
assumed
be
primary
factor
in
limiting
distributions,
decades
biology
research
made
correlative
mechanistic
understanding
temperature
most
accessible
commonly
used
response
any
factor.
Receiving
far
less
attention,
however,
gradients
oxygen,
light,
pressure,
pH
water
availability
latitude,
elevation,
and/or
ocean
depth,
show
strong
physiological
behavioral
adaptations
variables
within
historic
ranges.
Here,
we
discuss
how
may
disrupt
climate‐driven
range
shifts,
as
well
variety
use
overcome
conditions,
emphasizing
which
taxa
limited
this
capacity.
We
highlight
need
scientists
extend
incorporate
non‐climatic,
create
a
more
ecologically
relevant
animals
interact
environment,
face
demonstrate
additional
can
integrated
into
change
better
inform
expectations
provide
recommendations
addressing
challenge
predicting
future
environments.
Amphibians
are
the
most
threatened
vertebrates,
yet
their
resilience
to
rising
temperatures
remains
poorly
understood1,2.
This
is
primarily
because
knowledge
of
thermal
tolerance
taxonomically
and
geographically
biased3,
compromising
global
climate
vulnerability
assessments.
Here
we
used
a
phylogenetically
informed
data-imputation
approach
predict
heat
60%
amphibian
species
assessed
daily
temperature
variations
in
refugia.
We
found
that
104
out
5,203
(2%)
currently
exposed
overheating
events
shaded
terrestrial
conditions.
Despite
accounting
for
heat-tolerance
plasticity,
4
°C
increase
would
create
step
change
impact
severity,
pushing
7.5%
beyond
physiological
limits.
In
Southern
Hemisphere,
tropical
encounter
disproportionally
more
events,
while
non-tropical
susceptible
Northern
Hemisphere.
These
findings
challenge
evidence
general
latitudinal
gradient
risk4-6
underscore
importance
considering
climatic
variability
provide
conservative
estimates
assuming
access
cool
microenvironments.
Thus,
impacts
warming
will
probably
exceed
our
projections.
Our
microclimate-explicit
analyses
demonstrate
vegetation
water
bodies
critical
buffering
amphibians
during
waves.
Immediate
action
needed
preserve
manage
these
microhabitat
features.
Global Change Biology,
Год журнала:
2019,
Номер
25(8), С. 2633 - 2647
Опубликована: Май 3, 2019
Insights
into
the
causal
mechanisms
that
limit
species
distributions
are
likely
to
improve
our
ability
anticipate
range
shifts
in
response
climate
change.
For
with
complex
life
histories,
a
mechanistic
understanding
of
how
affects
different
lifecycle
stages
may
be
crucial
for
making
accurate
forecasts.
Here,
we
use
niche
modeling
(NicheMapR)
derive
"proximate"
(mechanistic)
variables
tadpole,
juvenile,
and
adult
Rana
temporaria.
We
modeled
hydroperiod,
maximum
minimum
temperatures
shallow
(30
cm)
ponds,
as
well
activity
windows
juveniles
adults.
then
used
those
("proximate")
correlative
ecological
models
(Maxent)
assess
their
role
limiting
species'
current
distribution,
investigate
potential
effects
change
on
R.
temporaria
across
Europe.
further
compared
results
model
based
commonly
macroclimatic
("distal")
layers
(i.e.,
bioclimatic
from
WorldClim).
The
temperature
warmest
month
(a
variable)
pond
were
most
important
range-limiting
factors,
thresholds
consistent
observed
upper
thermal
tadpoles.
found
shift
forecasts
central
Europe
far
more
pessimistic
when
using
distal
variables,
projections
proximate
variables.
However,
both
approaches
predicted
extensive
decreases
climatic
suitability
southern
Europe,
which
harbors
significant
fraction
genetic
diversity.
show
provides
ways
depict
gridded
directly
reflect
microenvironments
experienced
by
organisms
at
continental
scales,
reconstruct
predictors
without
extrapolation
under
novel
future
conditions.
Furthermore,
incorporating
can
help
shed
light
processes,
have
substantial
impacts
predictions
climate-induced
shifts.
Journal of Animal Ecology,
Год журнала:
2020,
Номер
89(7), С. 1722 - 1734
Опубликована: Март 28, 2020
Abstract
The
vulnerability
of
species
to
climate
change
is
jointly
influenced
by
geographic
phenotypic
variation,
acclimation
and
behavioural
thermoregulation.
importance
interactions
between
these
factors,
however,
remains
poorly
understood.
We
demonstrate
how
advances
in
mechanistic
niche
modelling
can
be
used
integrate
assess
the
influence
sources
uncertainty
forecasts
impacts.
explored
variation
thermal
tolerance
(i.e.
maximum
minimum
limits)
its
potential
for
juvenile
European
common
frogs
Rana
temporaria
along
elevational
gradients.
Furthermore,
we
employed
a
model
(NicheMapR)
relative
contributions
thermoregulation
determining
impacts
on
safety
margins
activity
windows.
Our
analyses
revealed
that
high-elevation
populations
had
slightly
wider
ranges
driven
increases
heat
but
lower
acclimation.
Plausibly,
fluctuations
at
high
elevations
favour
more
tolerant
less
plastic
phenotypes,
thus
reducing
risk
encountering
stressful
temperatures
during
unpredictable
extreme
events.
Biophysical
models
exposure
indicated
observed
differences
provide
limited
protection
from
changing
climates.
Indeed,
reaching
body
beyond
species'
range
was
similar
across
elevations.
In
contrast,
ability
seek
cooler
retreat
sites
through
adjustments
played
an
essential
role
buffering
extremes
predicted
under
change.
Predicted
also
altered
current
windows,
high‐elevation
were
remain
temporally
constrained
than
lowland
populations.
results
tolerances
capacity
might
insufficient
buffer
temperate
amphibians
change;
instead,
may
only
effective
mechanism
avoid
stress
future
The
regulation
of
energy,
water
and
thermal
balance
involves
integrated
processes
that
should
drive
ecological
responses
ectotherms
to
climate
change.
Functional
tradeoffs
between
thermoregulation
hydroregulation
are
exacerbated
during
hot
or
dry
spells,
but
how
microhabitat
hydric
properties
trophic
resource
availability
influence
these
remains
unknown.
Here,
we
investigated
the
effects
humidity
food
on
thermo‐hydroregulation
strategies
in
ground‐dwelling
common
lizard
Zootoca
vivipara
a
simulated
spell
event.
We
exposed
lizards
five‐day
long
acute
restriction
conditions
laboratory
manipulated
quality
retreat
site
(wet
shelter)
as
well
(ad
libitum
deprivation).
Water
deprivation
caused
physiological
such
muscle
catabolism
mobilization
caudal
energy
reserves.
Lizards
also
developed
behavioural
conserve
via
decreased
effort,
higher
shelter
use
increased
eye
closure
behaviours
through
time.
These
changes
were
importantly
buffered
by
presence
wet
not
availability.
A
reduced
conflicts
hydroregulation,
allowed
maintain
better
condition
dehydration.
Instead,
intake
did
play
major
role
hydration
state
hydroregulation.
consideration
is
required
address
ectotherm
future