Forecasting species range dynamics with process‐explicit models: matching methods to applications

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 22(11), P. 1940 - 1956

Published: July 29, 2019

Abstract Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between occurrence data predictors, with processes captured only implicitly. However, there a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model such as physiology, dispersal, demography biotic interactions. These believed offer more robust predictions, particularly when extrapolating novel conditions. Many process–explicit now available, but it not clear how we can best draw this expanded modelling toolbox address problems inform management decisions. Here, review range of determine their strengths limitations, well current use. Focusing four common applications SDMs – regulatory planning, extinction risk, climate refugia invasive then explore which meet needs. We identify barriers widespread effective use process‐explicit outline these might be overcome. As technical challenges, pressing need for thorough evaluation predictions guide investment method development ensure the promise new fully realised.

Language: Английский

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When water interacts with temperature: Ecological and evolutionary implications of thermo‐hydroregulation in terrestrial ectotherms

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 9(17), P. 10029 - 10043

Published: Aug. 2, 2019

The regulation of body temperature (thermoregulation) and water balance (defined here as hydroregulation) are key processes underlying ecological evolutionary responses to climate fluctuations in wild animal populations. In terrestrial (or semiterrestrial) ectotherms, thermoregulation hydroregulation closely interact combined constraints should directly influence individual performances. Although comparative physiologists traditionally investigate jointly regulation, the implications these coupled have so far mostly been studied independently. Here, we revisit concept thermo-hydroregulation address functional integration ectotherms. We demonstrate how provides a framework adaptations joint environmental variation availability, potential physiological and/or behavioral conflicts between hydroregulation. extend classical cost-benefit model ectotherms highlight adaptive evolution optimal strategies. Critical gaps parameterization this conceptual optimality guidelines for future empirical research discussed. show that studies refine our mechanistic understanding plasticity, fundamental niche species. This is illustrated with relevant recent examples space use dispersal, resource-based trade-offs, life-history tactics insects, amphibians, nonavian reptiles.

Language: Английский

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Mechanistic forecasts of species responses to climate change: The promise of biophysical ecology

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 29(6), P. 1451 - 1470

Published: Dec. 14, 2022

A core challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond future environmental and manage these responses. To make such predictions management actions robust novel futures, we need accurately characterize organisms experience their environments the biological mechanisms by which they respond. All are thermodynamically connected through exchange of heat water at fine spatial temporal scales this can be captured with biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on ecology have a long history development application, use remains limited despite enormous promise increasingly accessible software. We contend that greater understanding training theory methods vital expand application. Our review shows implemented understand climate impacts species' behavior, phenology, survival, distribution, abundance. It also illustrates types outputs generated, data inputs required for different implementations. Examples range from simple calculations body temperature particular site time, more complex analyses distribution limits projected energy balances, accounting behavior phenology. outline challenges currently limit widespread application relating availability, training, lack common software ecosystems. discuss progress developments could allow applied many across large extents timeframes. Finally, highlight uniquely suited solve problems involve predicting interpreting responses variability extremes, multiple or shifting constraints, abiotic biotic environments.

Language: Английский

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NicheMapR – an R package for biophysical modelling: the ectotherm and Dynamic Energy Budget models

Ecography, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 43(1), P. 85 - 96

Published: Nov. 5, 2019

Mechanistic niche models characterise the fundamental of an organism by determining thermodynamic constraints on its heat, water and nutritional budget, consequences this for growth, development reproduction. They can thus quantify survival, activity and, ultimately, vital rates that determine population given a sequence environmental conditions key morphological, physiological behavioural functional traits. Here we introduce document ectotherm model NicheMapR, R package includes suite programs mechanistic modelling water, energy mass exchange between any kind ectothermic environment. The NicheMapR is based Fortran program originally developed Porter, Mitchell Beckman predicting core body temperature evaporative loss as function microclimatic thermoregulation. routines computing steady state two extreme microclimates (minimum maximum shade) computed microclimate model. Behavioural options include posture colour change, shade‐seeking, panting, climbing retreating underground. configure to be called from part describe in detail including new functionality whole life‐cycle budgets using Dynamic Energy Budget theory. We scripts operation well stand‐alone running DEB Example applications are provided paper associated vignettes. integrated should provide strong basis effects change behaviour, distribution abundance organisms.

Language: Английский

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The challenge of novel abiotic conditions for species undergoing climate‐induced range shifts

Ecography, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 43(11), P. 1571 - 1590

Published: Sept. 29, 2020

Coincident with recent global warming, species have shifted their geographic distributions to cooler environments, generally by moving along thermal axes higher latitudes, elevations or deeper waters. While these shifts allow organisms track niche, three also covary non‐climatic abiotic factors that could pose challenges range‐shifting plants and animals. Such novel conditions present an unappreciated pitfall for researchers – from both empirical predictive viewpoints who study the redistribution of under climate change. Climate, particularly temperature, is often assumed be primary factor in limiting distributions, decades biology research made correlative mechanistic understanding temperature most accessible commonly used response any factor. Receiving far less attention, however, gradients oxygen, light, pressure, pH water availability latitude, elevation, and/or ocean depth, show strong physiological behavioral adaptations variables within historic ranges. Here, we discuss how may disrupt climate‐driven range shifts, as well variety use overcome conditions, emphasizing which taxa limited this capacity. We highlight need scientists extend incorporate non‐climatic, create a more ecologically relevant animals interact environment, face demonstrate additional can integrated into change better inform expectations provide recommendations addressing challenge predicting future environments.

Language: Английский

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Global exposure risk of frogs to increasing environmental dryness

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Oct. 21, 2024

Language: Английский

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Vulnerability of amphibians to global warming

Nature, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 5, 2025

Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates, yet their resilience to rising temperatures remains poorly understood1,2. This is primarily because knowledge of thermal tolerance taxonomically and geographically biased3, compromising global climate vulnerability assessments. Here we used a phylogenetically informed data-imputation approach predict heat 60% amphibian species assessed daily temperature variations in refugia. We found that 104 out 5,203 (2%) currently exposed overheating events shaded terrestrial conditions. Despite accounting for heat-tolerance plasticity, 4 °C increase would create step change impact severity, pushing 7.5% beyond physiological limits. In Southern Hemisphere, tropical encounter disproportionally more events, while non-tropical susceptible Northern Hemisphere. These findings challenge evidence general latitudinal gradient risk4-6 underscore importance considering climatic variability provide conservative estimates assuming access cool microenvironments. Thus, impacts warming will probably exceed our projections. Our microclimate-explicit analyses demonstrate vegetation water bodies critical buffering amphibians during waves. Immediate action needed preserve manage these microhabitat features.

Language: Английский

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Integrating mechanistic and correlative niche models to unravel range‐limiting processes in a temperate amphibian

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 25(8), P. 2633 - 2647

Published: May 3, 2019

Insights into the causal mechanisms that limit species distributions are likely to improve our ability anticipate range shifts in response climate change. For with complex life histories, a mechanistic understanding of how affects different lifecycle stages may be crucial for making accurate forecasts. Here, we use niche modeling (NicheMapR) derive "proximate" (mechanistic) variables tadpole, juvenile, and adult Rana temporaria. We modeled hydroperiod, maximum minimum temperatures shallow (30 cm) ponds, as well activity windows juveniles adults. then used those ("proximate") correlative ecological models (Maxent) assess their role limiting species' current distribution, investigate potential effects change on R. temporaria across Europe. further compared results model based commonly macroclimatic ("distal") layers (i.e., bioclimatic from WorldClim). The temperature warmest month (a variable) pond were most important range-limiting factors, thresholds consistent observed upper thermal tadpoles. found shift forecasts central Europe far more pessimistic when using distal variables, projections proximate variables. However, both approaches predicted extensive decreases climatic suitability southern Europe, which harbors significant fraction genetic diversity. show provides ways depict gridded directly reflect microenvironments experienced by organisms at continental scales, reconstruct predictors without extrapolation under novel future conditions. Furthermore, incorporating can help shed light processes, have substantial impacts predictions climate-induced shifts.

Language: Английский

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The roles of acclimation and behaviour in buffering climate change impacts along elevational gradients

Journal of Animal Ecology, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 89(7), P. 1722 - 1734

Published: March 28, 2020

Abstract The vulnerability of species to climate change is jointly influenced by geographic phenotypic variation, acclimation and behavioural thermoregulation. importance interactions between these factors, however, remains poorly understood. We demonstrate how advances in mechanistic niche modelling can be used integrate assess the influence sources uncertainty forecasts impacts. explored variation thermal tolerance (i.e. maximum minimum limits) its potential for juvenile European common frogs Rana temporaria along elevational gradients. Furthermore, we employed a model (NicheMapR) relative contributions thermoregulation determining impacts on safety margins activity windows. Our analyses revealed that high-elevation populations had slightly wider ranges driven increases heat but lower acclimation. Plausibly, fluctuations at high elevations favour more tolerant less plastic phenotypes, thus reducing risk encountering stressful temperatures during unpredictable extreme events. Biophysical models exposure indicated observed differences provide limited protection from changing climates. Indeed, reaching body beyond species' range was similar across elevations. In contrast, ability seek cooler retreat sites through adjustments played an essential role buffering extremes predicted under change. Predicted also altered current windows, high‐elevation were remain temporally constrained than lowland populations. results tolerances capacity might insufficient buffer temperate amphibians change; instead, may only effective mechanism avoid stress future

Language: Английский

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Hydration and evaporative water loss of lizards change in response to temperature and humidity acclimation

Journal of Experimental Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 226(20)

Published: Sept. 28, 2023

Testing acclimation plasticity informs our understanding of organismal physiology and applies to conservation management amidst rapidly changing climate. Although there is a wealth research on the thermal hydric in response temperature acclimation, comparative gap for different regimes, as well interaction between water temperature. We sought fill this by acclimating western fence lizards (Sceloporus occidentalis) experimental climate conditions (crossed design hot or cool, dry humid) 8 days, measuring cutaneous evaporative loss (CEWL), plasma osmolality, hematocrit body mass before after acclimation. CEWL changed plastically climates, with acclimated humid experiencing greatest increase CEWL. Change among individuals was negatively related treatment vapor pressure deficit positively pressure. Plasma all showed greater changes than humidity deficit. osmolality were across groups within but two variables responses suggesting that they are interrelated governed mechanisms. This study few assess more one metric test interactive effects humidity. Such measurements will be essential predictive models activity survival animals under change.

Language: Английский

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