Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 61(7-8), С. 3911 - 3933
Опубликована: Апрель 13, 2023
Язык: Английский
International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 42(14), С. 7280 - 7297
Опубликована: Апрель 9, 2022
Abstract This study examines the projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation over Mediterranean (MED) Sahara (SAH) regions based on multi‐model ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate model (GCM) datasets. The employs robust statistical analyses to investigate future during 2015–2100 relative a baseline period (1995–2014), under two Shared Socio‐economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios: SSP2‐4.5 SSP5‐8.5. Selected indices from Expert Team Climate Change Detection Indices are used this study. They include those that represent maximum daily (RX1day), simple intensity (SDII), heavy days (R10mm), consecutive dry (CDD), wet (CWD). Historical is first bias‐adjusted using quantile mapping approach before employing them compute changes. results demonstrate bias adjustment largely reduces biases modelled MED SAH regions. Projections show reduction most parts region by end 21st century. areas encompassing Morocco Algeria, area will experience highest drying. pattern agrees with “wet gets wetter, drier” paradigm. number wet‐day also increase decrease, respectively. Under SSP5‐8.5, significant largest decrease SDII attributed warming both precipitation, coupled an days, likely exacerbate region's droughts aridity situation worsen water scarcity status. Although there uncertainties CMIP simulations, findings support earlier studies varying increases confidence output for decision‐making.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
37
Hydrology and earth system sciences, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 26(5), С. 1481 - 1506
Опубликована: Март 18, 2022
Abstract. A comprehensive evaluation of the impacts climate change on water resources West Africa Volta River basin is conducted in this study, as region expected to be hardest hit by global warming. large ensemble 12 general circulation models (GCMs) from fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that are dynamically downscaled five regional (RCMs) Coordinated Regional-climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-Africa used. In total, 43 RCM–GCM combinations considered under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The reliability each datasets first evaluated with satellite reanalysis reference datasets. Subsequently, Rank Resampling for Distributions Dependences (R2D2) multivariate bias correction method applied bias-corrected projections then used input mesoscale Hydrologic (mHM) hydrological over 21st century (1991–2100). Results reveal contrasting dynamics seasonality rainfall, depending selected greenhouse gas emission scenarios future projection periods. Although air temperature potential evaporation increase all RCPs, an magnitude variables (actual evaporation, total runoff, groundwater recharge, soil moisture, terrestrial storage) only projected RCP8.5. High- low-flow analysis suggests increased flood risk RCP8.5, particularly Black Volta, while droughts would recurrent RCP2.6 White Volta. evolutions streamflow indicate a delay date occurrence low flows up 11 d high could occur 6 earlier (RCP2.6) or 5 later (RCP8.5), compared historical period. Disparities observed spatial patterns hydroclimatic across climatic zones, higher warming Sahelian zone. Therefore, have severe implications availability concerns rain-fed agriculture, thereby weakening water–energy–food security nexus amplifying vulnerability local population. variability between highlights uncertainties indicates need better represent complex features models. These findings serve guideline both scientific community improve decision-makers elaborate adaptation mitigation strategies cope consequences strengthen socioeconomic development.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
36
Environmental Research Letters, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 17(4), С. 044051 - 044051
Опубликована: Март 14, 2022
Abstract Understanding population exposure to precipitation-related extreme events is important for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. We analyze precipitation using indices (EPIs), including consecutive dry days (CDD), annual total precipitation, simple daily intensity, the number of extremely wet days, under past future climatic conditions over East Africa. The African these at 1.5 °C 2.0 global warming levels (GWLs) analyzed based on Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 models. Exposure computed from (R95p CDD, respectively). Under both GWLs, EPIs (except CDD) averaged Africa are projected increase Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP)2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 scenarios. largest in will likely occur eastern northern Kenya. results also reveal an intensification extremes Burundi, Rwanda, some parts Uganda. However, small changes expected most Kenya Tanzania. Examination shows that prominent net intense occurrence In contrast, less noted vast Meanwhile, limiting target than but not more has 37% (44.2%) 92% (4%) impact R95p (CDD) SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenarios, respectively. study establishes predominantly driven by compared other factors such as or concurrent (the nonlinear interaction effect). For instance, effects anticipated contribute ∼10.6% (12.6%) (2.0 °C) levels, while ∼77.4% (71.9%) 12% (15.5%), respectively, Interestingly, regional due greater effect, reverse pattern observed SSP5-8.5. example, SSP5-8.5, larger (after effect) with ∼3.8 × 10 5 (15.7%) ∼6.1 (17.5%) billion person-mm, high calls a shift policies instate suitable measures cushion already vulnerable population.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
34
Climatic Change, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 170(1-2)
Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2022
Abstract We present a dataset of daily, bias-adjusted temperature and precipitation projections for continental Africa based on large ensemble regional climate model simulations, which can be useful change impact studies in several sectors. provide guidance the benefits caveats using by investigating effect bias-adjustment impact-relevant indices (both their future absolute value change). Extreme threshold-based show differences between original values at end century due to general underestimation climate. These results indicate that when biases are accounted for, projected risks extreme temperature-related hazards higher than previously found, with possible consequences planning adaptation measures. Bias-adjusted usually consistent results, median preserved most regions indices. The interquartile full range is well bias-adjustment, exception maximum daily precipitation, whose greatly reduced bias-adjustment. This poor simulation extremely this index over reference period; bias reduced, models converge projecting similar change. Finally, we methodology select small subset simulations preserves overall uncertainty ensemble. result practical applications process-based too expensive run simulations.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
33
International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 42(16), С. 8269 - 8289
Опубликована: Май 17, 2022
Abstract The increasing awareness of climate change requires accurate, reliable and timely information on possible precipitation (PRE) changes to build resilience. This study uses the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) data examine effectiveness bias correction simulated historical mean extreme PRE, investigates projected in PRE events over southern Africa (SAF). Quantile mapping a gamma distribution method is applied CMIP6 data, with Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) dataset as reference data. projection analyses are conducted for wet (December–March) dry (May–October) seasons two shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP2‐4.5 SSP5‐8.5. results affirm that significantly reduces (by more than 90%) biases modelled PRE. shows general drying pattern SAF. In season, days (R1mm) decrease by 1 2 end 21st century SSP5‐8.5, respectively, while very heavy (R20mm) show slight upward SAF, reaching 0.1 0.4 scenarios. contrast, season exhibits pronounced tendency, consistent R1mm 2100 respectively. R20mm 4 0.2 implies SAF expected get drier during intensity increase.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
32
Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 11(1)
Опубликована: Дек. 31, 2022
Abstract This study investigates the impact of increased global warming on heat stress changes and potential number people exposed to risks over Africa. For this purpose a index has been computed based an ensemble‐mean high‐resolution regional climate model simulations from Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations embedded in COordinated Climate Downscaling EXperiment, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCP2.6 RCP8.5), combined with projections population growth developed Shared Socioeconomic (SSPs) (SSP1 SSP5). Results show that by late 21st century, is expected induce 12‐fold increase area extent affected high‐risk level. would result about 10%–30% days conditions, as well 6%–20% their magnitude throughout seasonal cycle West, Central, North‐East Therefore, because lack adaptation mitigation policies, exacerbation ambient conditions could contribute exposure 2–8.5 million person‐events level Burkina Faso, Ghana, Niger, Nigeria. Furthermore, it was found interaction effect between change seems be most dominant explaining total due moderate high heat‐related all subregions African continent.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
32
Sustainability, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 15(1), С. 690 - 690
Опубликована: Дек. 30, 2022
Although climate change is an inherently global issue, its impacts will not be felt equally across Earth’s pressure belts and continental-scale regions. This study seeks to examine which areas are becoming warmer experiencing drought, with a particular focus on Africa, in light of low historical emissions but poor economic capacity for mitigation adaptation change, Morocco, whose conditional goal, achieved foreign assistance, rated as “almost sufficient” yet compliance the Paris Agreement’s goal. We also explore consistency sources uncertainty Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models analyze what changes from CMIP5—whose projections based Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)—to Shared Socio-Economic (SSPs)-based scenarios CMIP6. find that strong forcing, no additional policies, projected raise mean annual temperature over Morocco long-term period by 6.25 °C. All CMIP6 agree warming (resp. drought) greater land masses poles tropical coastal regions) than oceans equatorial regions high latitudes, equatorial, monsoon zones), less so intensity changes.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
31
Sustainability, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 15(9), С. 7202 - 7202
Опубликована: Апрель 26, 2023
In this study, the latest release of all available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models with two future scenarios Shared Socio-Economic Pathways, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, over period 2015–2100 are utilized in diagnosing extremes Türkiye. Coarse-resolution were downscaled to a 0.1° × (~9 km) spatial resolution using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5-Land (ERA5-Land) dataset based on three types quantile mapping: mapping, detrended delta mapping. The temporal variations 12 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) temperature (ETIs) from 2015 2100 consistently suggest drier conditions, addition more frequent severe warming Türkiye, under scenarios. SSP5-8.5 scenario indicates water stress than scenario; total decreases up 20% Aegean Mediterranean regions Precipitation indicate decrease frequency heavy rains but an increase very also increasing amount rain days. Temperature such as coldest, warmest, mean daily maximum expected across indicating conditions by 7.5 °C end century. Additionally, coldest maximums exhibit higher variability change subregions Aegean, Southeastern Anatolia, Marmara, Türkiye while showed greater sensitivity Black Sea, Central Eastern Anatolia regions.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
21
Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 293, С. 106921 - 106921
Опубликована: Июль 16, 2023
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
21
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 129(3)
Опубликована: Янв. 31, 2024
Abstract There is an urgent need to enhance climate projections for Central Equatorial Africa (CEA), given the region's high vulnerability climatic hazards and its economy's heavy dependence on climate‐sensitive sectors. This study aims evaluate performance of regional earth system model ROM, composed atmosphere‐only (RCM) REMO coupled with global Max Planck Institute Meteorology Ocean Model (MPIOM), in reproducing precipitation climatology over CEA. ROM results are compared those two sets experiments, one driven by ERA‐Interim reanalysis other MPI‐ESM‐LR (ESM), both at ∼ 25‐km horizontal resolution. Results show that ocean coupling improves rainfall thanks a better representation physical processes mechanisms underlying system. In particular, improved sea surface temperature (SST) more realistic simulation land‐atmosphere‐ocean interactions, subsequently atmospheric baroclinicity. Specifically, reduces positive SST bias inherited driving ESM across entire Guinea Gulf Benguela‐Angola coastal seas. leads simulated land‐ocean thermal pressure contrasts. Improvements contrasts, turn, circulation, thus precipitation. Interestingly, beneficial when than reanalysis. emphasizes advantage dynamically downscaling ESMs using models rather RCMs, potential confidence future projections.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
8